Would Connecticut have flipped Republican if the nominees were Kasich V Clinton?

[NewEnglandRepublican]

I have a strong feeling that if the nominees were Kasich Vs. Clinton that Connecticut could have flipped ,or have been razor thin, like it was in Minnesota with Trump v Hillary. I say this because Kasich reminds me a lot of an HW Bush type, who won CT in 88 and won Fairfield county in 92. Kasich also seems to appeal a lot to socially moderate/liberal people who are center right economically;  in other words very suburbanite. With that, you have Fairfield county, the most populous county in CT that fits that bill perfectly. If you look at 04 and 12 it voted more R then the state as a whole and were 47% R (04) and 44% R (12). However, with Hillary's baggage and distain among most people, even people who held their nose and voted for her when faced with Trump, I can make the assumption, with great faith, that if given the option between Clinton and Kasich that Fairfield county inhabitants would have gone heavily for Kasich. However, would you say that it would have been enough to flip the entire state? I know Litchfield would be Republican as well? But would Kasich have been as strong in New Haven and Hartford Counties?

[NewEnglandRepublican]

Thanks for explaining

[NewEnglandRepublican]

The problem that Kasich would have, is that a lot of his popularity is because of the fact that he was not the nominee and that he was against Trump.

If you make him the nominee though, the election then becomes about him and his positions and not about Trump and his statements, and his locker room talk.

Suddenly you hear constantly about Kasich being super pro-life for example and the bill he signed in Ohio to restrict abortion, his attempt to curtail unions and so on. This would mean that he probably performs about the same as Romney.

Its ironic that you should mention Bush 41, because it was actions during the Bush 41 administration, breaking his promise on taxes, the recession and the appointment of Clarence Thomas, as well as the Democrats running Bill Clinton, that basically flipped secular White Collar voters to the Democrats. Throw in 30 years of ingrained partisanship and the GOP venturing even further down that road, even with Kasich, he probably maxes out in the low to mid 40's at best.

He might do somewhat better with high end secular voters, but he wouldn't do as well with working class whites as Trump did in CT-05 and CT-02.

Yes, but the reason I mentioned 41 is because he actually managed to still retain Fairfield County in the 92 election, though by a plurality (Perot). Also, how about the factor of him being overwhelmingly popular in his state pre-Trump winning 60% in the 2014 election. Going as far as winning Cuyahoga county, a Democratic stronghold, and with that 60% meaning many Democrats crossing over. Now yes, I do know that gubernatorial elections behave differently compared to their presidential counterparts, but I do think he could've campaigned on that record of bi-partisan support in his state and have that be a winning strategy.

[NewEnglandRepublican]

Also, when you mention social issues like abortion I'm not convinced that would drag his campaign down as much in CT, as perhaps a conservative approach to LGBT issues would have. In other words, I think Kasich being more socially liberal on LGBT would be a benefit for him. Additionally, Kasich banned late term abortion, which from the polls I've seen has a great deal of support in the general public. It's not as if CT is like the Bay Area who think late term abortion is pretty rad or whatever.

[NewEnglandRepublican]

What would it take then for a Republican to flip CT? Would it only happen if a third party "out left" the Democrats and took votes? Then is that the only way a  Republican could win; is through a plurality? Is there any way they could get an absolute majority?

[NewEnglandRepublican]

Whats the short and sweet scenario?

[NewEnglandRepublican]

I mean, Kasich would likely have beaten Clinton, but let's dispel with this fiction that he would have won in a massive landslide and won strongly Democratic states like Washington, Oregon, Illinois, or Connecticut.

What states do you believe he would've won? And why would you consider CT on the same level as Dem as Washington?

[NewEnglandRepublican]

I agree with twenty32