Would Connecticut have flipped Republican if the nominees were Kasich V Clinton?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Depends on if Stein can get more than 5% of the vote or not

[OSR stands with Israel]

These are the following % Kasich would need to win by nationally to win the following states:

PA/FL/WI: He wins even if he loses the popular vote by 1-2 points
New Hampshire/ Colorado: Tied Popular Vote
Michigan: 1 Points
Nevada: 2 points
Maine: 3 points
Virginia: 4 points
Oregon: 7 points
New Mexico: 9 points
New Jersey: 12 points
Connecticut/Washington: 14 points


I think Kasich wins by around 8 points nationally

[OSR stands with Israel]

I mean, Kasich would likely have beaten Clinton, but let's dispel with this fiction that he would have won in a massive landslide and won strongly Democratic states like Washington, Oregon, Illinois, or Connecticut.

Oregon is no where near as strongly dem as those other states


If a Republicans wins by 8 points nationally they will likely win Oregon and I think Kasich would win by that margin

[OSR stands with Israel]

I mean, Kasich would likely have beaten Clinton, but let's dispel with this fiction that he would have won in a massive landslide and won strongly Democratic states like Washington, Oregon, Illinois, or Connecticut.

Agreed. Demographics + a stable economy + polarization would’ve capped Kasich off at a +5 win max against Hillary. His approvals would’ve come down to reality in a GE against the Clinton machine.

I’m not seeing how Kasich is any stronger than a sitting war time president in 04’ was. And as NCYankee pointed out, Kasich’s pro life past would’ve been brought to the forefront in a GE. Not seeing how he wins over some large segment of Oregon voters in the suburbs or break into the cities to secure a win there.

Oregon is a pretty anti war state so the fact that Bush only lost by 4 points in 2004 was pretty impressive. Kasich is going to be significantly stronger than Bush in Oregon .

Also Kasich doesnt need 50% of the vote in Oregon to win the state


As long as he gets 47% he probably wins the state as if Kasich was the nominee Stein likely gets at least 5 % of the vote and Kasich wins. Kasich is more than capable of getting 47% of the vote in Oregon so I believe he wins the state

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oregon is a pretty anti war state so the fact that Bush only lost by 4 points in 2004 was pretty impressive. Kasich is going to be significantly stronger than Bush in Oregon.

[Citation Needed]

Mr. Anti-Iraq war Donald Trump couldn’t even prevent a deeply unpopular hawkish Dem from obtaining a majority in Oregon. What makes pro-Iraq War Kasich any better?

Trump was also terrible for the suburbs, Kasich is the exact opposite


And Kasich if he was the nominee probably would be the least hawkish gop nominee since ironically Bush in 2000(not counting trump ) and Kasich favorable were way better than Hillary .


Lastly Oregon has been a +7-8 dem State since like 2004 so if Kasich wins nationally by 7-8 he likely wins the state . I think the main difference comes to how large we think Kasich national win would be by (I think it would be 8-9 points). Even if it’s a 6-7 point national win I still think Kasich wins Oregon due to Stein getting over 5 percent of the vote in Oregon 
 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why would Stein get 5% of voters in Oregon against Kasich vs Clinton and not Trump vs Clinton, lol. There's no way she would somehow double her support.

Cause Kasich is no where near as divisive or as bad of a person as Trump is and Trump being that is why Stein didnt get much of the votes in the first places.


In Oregon I believe Kasich would have gotten 47.5%, Hillary 46.9% , Stein 5%

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is my Kasich vs Clinton map:

Kasich 357 52%
Hillary 181 45%
Stein 2.1%
Johnson 0.9%

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kasich may have won but he’s terribly overrated on here. There is 0 evidence to suggest that he is some super unbeatable candidate. In fact everything suggests otherwise

It doesn’t take ANYWHERE near a “super unbeatable” candidate to achieve that map vs. Hillary Clinton, LMAO.

My only grievance in this thread is Old School Republican’s belief that Kasich is somehow such a God tier candidate that he’d flip Oregon because Stein somehow doubles her 2016 percentage in the state and because something something suburbs.

Also PVI


If Kasich wins by 8 points nationally he likely wins Oregon (Since Oregon’s PVI Since 2004 has been around +8 dem and Kasich is best fit for a republican for Oregon since at least 2000 so he would do better than average PVI)