Would Connecticut have flipped Republican if the nominees were Kasich V Clinton?
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  Would Connecticut have flipped Republican if the nominees were Kasich V Clinton?
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Author Topic: Would Connecticut have flipped Republican if the nominees were Kasich V Clinton?  (Read 7451 times)
RINO Tom
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« Reply #25 on: May 14, 2018, 12:38:26 PM »

Obviously not.  I think Kasich could have pulled this, though:

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« Reply #26 on: May 14, 2018, 12:44:14 PM »

Why would Stein get 5% of voters in Oregon against Kasich vs Clinton and not Trump vs Clinton, lol. There's no way she would somehow double her support.

Cause Kasich is no where near as divisive or as bad of a person as Trump is and Trump being that is why Stein didnt get much of the votes in the first places.


In Oregon I believe Kasich would have gotten 47.5%, Hillary 46.9% , Stein 5%
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Computer89
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« Reply #27 on: May 14, 2018, 12:46:26 PM »

This is my Kasich vs Clinton map:




Kasich 357 52%
Hillary 181 45%
Stein 2.1%
Johnson 0.9%
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #28 on: May 14, 2018, 05:22:49 PM »

Obviously not.  I think Kasich could have pulled this, though:



WV would definitely be a R>60% state in this scenario.

My guess, give or take Maine and Colorado (327-211 GOP EC win, btw):



I wanted to make NH a D>50% state, but given how badly Clinton underperformed against Trump of all people, I doubt she would have done a lot better there had she run against Kasich.

Yeah, oops, that was definitely a mistake.
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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #29 on: May 14, 2018, 08:18:58 PM »

Kasich may have won but he’s terribly overrated on here. There is 0 evidence to suggest that he is some super unbeatable candidate. In fact everything suggests otherwise
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #30 on: May 14, 2018, 09:00:25 PM »

Kasich may have won but he’s terribly overrated on here. There is 0 evidence to suggest that he is some super unbeatable candidate. In fact everything suggests otherwise

It doesn’t take ANYWHERE near a “super unbeatable” candidate to achieve that map vs. Hillary Clinton, LMAO.
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JG
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« Reply #31 on: May 15, 2018, 01:20:42 PM »

Kasich may have won but he’s terribly overrated on here. There is 0 evidence to suggest that he is some super unbeatable candidate. In fact everything suggests otherwise

It doesn’t take ANYWHERE near a “super unbeatable” candidate to achieve that map vs. Hillary Clinton, LMAO.

I’m not sure man, I think an unconventional candidate/outsider like Trump was the only one capable of defeating the unbelievably powerful Clinton machine in 2016. Surely we all remember how strong his GE campaign was, no? Kasich would have done worse among WWC voters and thus lost WI, PA, MI, FL, and maybe AZ and IA as well. Smiley

Trump was the perfect foil to Hillary. No way a conventional republican like Kasich or Jeb would have attracted enough support from Obama-voting WWC to flip WI, PA and MI.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #32 on: May 15, 2018, 02:39:29 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2018, 05:15:14 PM by RINO Tom »

Kasich may have won but he’s terribly overrated on here. There is 0 evidence to suggest that he is some super unbeatable candidate. In fact everything suggests otherwise

It doesn’t take ANYWHERE near a “super unbeatable” candidate to achieve that map vs. Hillary Clinton, LMAO.

I’m not sure man, I think an unconventional candidate/outsider like Trump was the only one capable of defeating the unbelievably powerful Clinton machine in 2016. Surely we all remember how strong his GE campaign was, no? Kasich would have done worse among WWC voters and thus lost WI, PA, MI, FL, and maybe AZ and IA as well. Smiley

Trump was the perfect foil to Hillary. No way a conventional republican like Kasich or Jeb would have attracted enough support from Obama-voting WWC to flip WI, PA and MI.

Okay, then agree to disagree.  Hillary did a perfectly fine job at alienating "WWC" voters on her own, and Republicans that didn't rely on registered Democrats and former Obama voters have won elections in all three states you just named.  Trump's populism is but one form of populism.  After all, any successful candidate HAS to be at least somewhat of a populist in style, no?  For God's sake, just because she was comically terrible at it doesn't mean Hillary Clinton didn't campaign as a "populist" (to predetermined demographics, of course); she absolutely did.  Kasich would have been a "populist" as well, he just wouldn't have been a classless bafoon.  I think Kasich picks up *enough* WWC voters in the Midwest (his home region) to win all of those states you mentioned and also holds on to a lot more traditional Republican support in suburban areas and among college educated Whites.  His performance among "WWC" voters in those states wouldn't have been QUITE as "impressive" as Trump's, because he wouldn't have been an offensive enough candidate to begin with to NEED that impressive of a "flip" of those voters.
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« Reply #33 on: May 15, 2018, 02:57:49 PM »

Kasich may have won but he’s terribly overrated on here. There is 0 evidence to suggest that he is some super unbeatable candidate. In fact everything suggests otherwise

It doesn’t take ANYWHERE near a “super unbeatable” candidate to achieve that map vs. Hillary Clinton, LMAO.

My only grievance in this thread is Old School Republican’s belief that Kasich is somehow such a God tier candidate that he’d flip Oregon because Stein somehow doubles her 2016 percentage in the state and because something something suburbs.


Also PVI


If Kasich wins by 8 points nationally he likely wins Oregon (Since Oregon’s PVI Since 2004 has been around +8 dem and Kasich is best fit for a republican for Oregon since at least 2000 so he would do better than average PVI)
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #34 on: May 15, 2018, 05:31:52 PM »

^ I know, I was responding to the guy/gal who quoted you.
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« Reply #35 on: May 16, 2018, 07:51:56 AM »

OSR, Kasich would not beat Clinton by 8 points and would not win OR/CT. He might win VA and CO, but those are long shots.
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« Reply #36 on: May 16, 2018, 07:53:09 PM »

OSR, Kasich would not beat Clinton by 8 points and would not win OR/CT. He might win VA and CO, but those are long shots.
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« Reply #37 on: May 17, 2018, 07:04:44 AM »

Kasich's so overrated it stopped to be funny. It's just cringeworthy.
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« Reply #38 on: May 17, 2018, 08:59:11 AM »

Kasich's so overrated it stopped to be funny. It's just cringeworthy.

It was just a dream.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #39 on: May 17, 2018, 09:04:54 AM »

Kasich's so overrated it stopped to be funny. It's just cringeworthy.

It was just a dream.

Again, Kasich could be overrated and still easily defeat Hillary Clinton, haha.  Winning Oregon and Connecticut, on the other hand ... LOL.
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« Reply #40 on: May 17, 2018, 01:56:30 PM »

Kasich's so overrated it stopped to be funny. It's just cringeworthy.

It was just a dream.

Again, Kasich could be overrated and still easily defeat Hillary Clinton, haha.  Winning Oregon and Connecticut, on the other hand ... LOL.

Yeah Kasich wins the PV by 5% max, lol. I think he would actually win the PV by 3%. Flips Minnesota, NH, Nevada, and nothing else. Maybe he flips Colorado? Young college educated RINOs in Colorado (there are a surprising amount of them here, actually) could flip Colorado.
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BenBurch
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« Reply #41 on: May 17, 2018, 04:41:14 PM »

LOL at Kasich winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  He MAYBE could have squeezed Iowa, I will give him that. 
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #42 on: May 17, 2018, 04:53:12 PM »

LOL at Kasich winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  He MAYBE could have squeezed Iowa, I will give him that. 

Yeah, LOL!!!!!!!!
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BenBurch
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« Reply #43 on: May 17, 2018, 08:26:45 PM »

LOL at Kasich winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  He MAYBE could have squeezed Iowa, I will give him that. 

Yeah, LOL!!!!!!!!

Kasich couldn't have done nearly as well in the Industrial Midwest as Trump.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #44 on: May 18, 2018, 09:14:30 AM »

LOL at Kasich winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  He MAYBE could have squeezed Iowa, I will give him that. 

Yeah, LOL!!!!!!!!

Kasich couldn't have done nearly as well in the Industrial Midwest as Trump.

Sure he could have.  For one, he was facing Hillary Clinton, so that alone gives him an edge.  Secondly, he has ALREADY WON a state in the industrial Midwest by a lot more than Trump did, even if it wasn't a federal race.  Third, whatever slight dropoff he'd have among these "Obama-Trump voters" (which there weren't that many of, honestly), he'd make up for by better margins in the various suburbs across Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
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« Reply #45 on: May 18, 2018, 10:43:26 AM »

Kasich's so overrated it stopped to be funny. It's just cringeworthy.
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BenBurch
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« Reply #46 on: May 18, 2018, 12:21:14 PM »

LOL at Kasich winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  He MAYBE could have squeezed Iowa, I will give him that. 

Yeah, LOL!!!!!!!!

Kasich couldn't have done nearly as well in the Industrial Midwest as Trump.

Sure he could have.  For one, he was facing Hillary Clinton, so that alone gives him an edge.  Secondly, he has ALREADY WON a state in the industrial Midwest by a lot more than Trump did, even if it wasn't a federal race.  Third, whatever slight dropoff he'd have among these "Obama-Trump voters" (which there weren't that many of, honestly), he'd make up for by better margins in the various suburbs across Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

He was governor of that state, so he would do better in Ohio.  Secondly, he would certainly have done better in the suburbs, but he wouldn't have done nearly as well among WWC, certainly not enough to offset Hillary.  She still would have kept Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.  I see Kasich getting 270, exactly.  Game over. 
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BenBurch
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« Reply #47 on: May 18, 2018, 01:05:36 PM »

He was governor of that state, so he would do better in Ohio.  Secondly, he would certainly have done better in the suburbs, but he wouldn't have done nearly as well among WWC, certainly not enough to offset Hillary.  She still would have kept Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.  I see Kasich getting 270, exactly.  Game over. 

You’d be surprised at how much people in the upper Midwest are willing to split ticket. 20% of Walker voters in his 2012 recall voted for Obama per exit polls.

Comparing Walker to Kasich is apples to oranges.  They aren't the same.  And Obama isn't Clinton.  Obama is a better person than Hillary, and actually likeable.  Anyway, Trump is much more a populist than Kasich, especially on immigration, which made him win in the Upper Midwest. 
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UncleSam
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« Reply #48 on: May 18, 2018, 01:07:25 PM »

Kasich would have won Ohio and North Carolina, probably would’ve won Iowa, and would’ve come up just short in Florida and the industrial midwest. And everyone here would be talking about what a great candidate Hillary Clinton was to overcome the adversity and be a woman and president and blah dee blah imagine how much worse Trump would have done.

Kasich was nothing more than Romney 2.0 running in a better R year. Toomey would’ve gone down and probably RonJon as well, though I could see Ayotte winning if Kasich were the nominee.

Overall I think Kasich gets 259 if he takes Florida and 230 otherwise, and is lauded as a really strong Republican / the best Rs could have done just ‘the map was set against him’. He probably would’ve lost the PV by about the same as Trump did but everyone would have talked about how Trump wouldn’t have gotten 40% and would’ve lost like 400-130 in the EC and all sorts of other nonsense.

Trump was the only R who would’ve beaten Hillary post-Christie debate. I think Rubio would have as well prior to his flop in the NH debate.
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BenBurch
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« Reply #49 on: May 18, 2018, 01:30:29 PM »

Comparing Walker to Kasich is apples to oranges.  They aren't the same.  And Obama isn't Clinton.  Obama is a better person than Hillary, and actually likeable.  Anyway, Trump is much more a populist than Kasich, especially on immigration, which made him win in the Upper Midwest.  

This is true however I wouldn’t be so certain that only Trump could’ve flipped the upper Midwest against Hillary. If I had told you a NYC billionaire Republican would win states Obama won by 5-14 points in early 2015 you would’ve rightfully called me a dumbass.

Voters are fickle and predicting their habits is hard work.

True.  To be fair, this two-party system sucks.
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