What is the next state to see a rapid collapse of the dominant party?

[Virginiá]

I'm thinking something like Virginia, where once it flipped in 2008, it was only a matter of ~10 years before the GOP imploded (2019 is likely to be it for them, as that seals their fate for redistricting). It probably would have happened sooner had a Republican won the White House in 2012, but that didn't happen, and Obama's unpopularity helped the VAGOP stay afloat. West Virginia is another example, which arguably saw a bigger collapse in shorter time: about 6-8 years, after Obama's election.

When picking your state, describe why you are picking it.

[LimoLiberal]

I think Colorado is the easiest choice here. Democrats only control the House of Representatives 36-29, but there are a good chunk of Clinton seats held by Republicans in the Denver suburbs. Republicans have a 1 seat majority in the Senate, but Democrats will easily take control. There's no Obama in power to stop the continued erosion of the GOP in the well educated suburbs, just as what happened in Northern Virginia.

[Greedo punched first]

Arizona because Arpaio lost and got pardoned.

[Politician]

Arizona, of course. Maybe Wisconsin and Michigan as well.

[Thunder98]

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine in no order.

[KingSweden]

Arizona. The fact that there’s a nonzero chance of flipping from a R to a D trifecta is telling

[Nyvin]

Other than maybe Maine pretty much all of them will be from R to D, since all the ancestrally D states likes Kentucky or Arkansas are already solid R from top down.

I'd agree Arizona will probably the first to go, once the Phoenix suburbs trend D, there's really nowhere for the Republicans to make up the lost votes from, there's simply not enough people out there in the countryside.

[Virginiá]

I should point out that when I said rapid collapse, I meant a collapse that is sustained over the long-term. States like Michigan and Wisconsin might not qualify for that. A wave could hurt the GOP bigly there, but I don't think it would signify a realignment of political power. Arizona seems like a good candidate for this, though.

[junior chįmp]

An interesting one is Arkansas which may regress back to being a Democratic state with Obama gone:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Doimper]

An interesting one is Arkansas which may regress back to being a Democratic state with Obama gone:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Don't count on it, lol

[Skill and Chance]

Arizona, followed by Georgia if Trump is reelected.

This, plus maybe Texas in a Trump 2nd term or under a Republican president elected in 2024 (think economy crashes next year, but stays bad enough that the Dem who beats Trump can't get reelected).  

Louisiana and Mississippi should also be on the radar, but probably not until well into the 2020's.  Utah Republicans see to be holding onto the McMullin voters just fine, so I don't think it will happen there.

Also, I'm not sure how to count Alaska, as Democrats technically have both the Governor's mansion and the lower house of the state legislature today, but both are only Dem-controlled on a technicality.  

[Tartarus Sauce]

I should point out that when I said rapid collapse, I meant a collapse that is sustained over the long-term. States like Michigan and Wisconsin might not qualify for that. A wave could hurt the GOP bigly there, but I don't think it would signify a realignment of political power. Arizona seems like a good candidate for this, though.

In this case, Pennsylvania might be a halfway contender. Their dominance in the state legislature is inflated by a bunch of Obama-Clinton seats that have trended Democratic but haven't been translating those gains downballot, much like NoVA until this past November. Philadelphia Metro Republicans will be getting blown out this midterm. This is countered, though, by the Republican shift in rural areas of the state and the industrial river towns in the Pittsburgh region, so it won't be a long term flip to Democratic dominance so much as a long-term tug-of-war for control between the two parties.

But the era of Republican supermajorities built on suburban Philly ticket-splitters is over come this November.

[junior chįmp]

An interesting one is Arkansas which may regress back to being a Democratic state with Obama gone:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Don't count on it, lol

Through Trump....all things are possible. Inshallah

[UncleVolodya]

Texas. Sububanites!

[BuckeyeNut]

An interesting one is Arkansas which may regress back to being a Democratic state with Obama gone:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Don't count on it, lol

There are at least 7 freshman Republicans in seats that were held by Democrats through 2014. 16 is a reach, obviously, but...

[Stranger in a strange land]

An interesting one is Arkansas which may regress back to being a Democratic state with Obama gone:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Don't count on it, lol

AR may go from Crimson to (Non-Atlas) Red, but it won't swing back to the Dems anytime in the foreseeable future.

[Rhenna]

Mississippi, Georgia, Arizona, Missouri, Kansas, and Alaska.

[mcmikk]

I'd say Wisconsin is a possibility, but as Virginia said, the state GOP falling in a wave may not signal a significant long-term shift in political power.

I think I'd have to give it to Arizona.

[Yellowhammer]

1) Arizona

2) Minnesota

[Thunder98]

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine in no order.

Anf forgot to mention Connecticut.

[TheSaint250]

1) Arizona

2) Minnesota

Minnesota already has R legislative majorities

Exactly

The chambers will probably flip this next election.

[TheSaint250]

1) Arizona

2) Minnesota

Minnesota already has R legislative majorities

Exactly

The chambers will probably flip this next election.

My point was that neither party is completely dominant in Minnesota if you factor in legislative and statewide results. So I was wondering why it would be included on this list

Yeah true

[Doimper]

I think this could've happened in Minnesota if Clinton had been elected.

[Orser67]

AZ, GA, TX, and FL for the GOP.

There really aren't any good candidates left for Democrats. MN is a decent choice but even there the GOP controls the state legislature already.

[Virginiá]

I'd like Minnesota better but:

1. Republicans have already had some success in legislative races, but even their better performances haven't resulted in any overwhelming successes.

2. Usually states where political power implodes for the dominant power see it slipping away ahead of time at the presidential level, and the implosion is mainly from the legislative/state results catching up to how voters had been voting for president for years already. Minnesota didn't even go for Trump, and in 2000 it went for Gore by similar margin as Clinton, so if anything, it just seems like status quo there.

IMO, there just aren't any good candidates for Democratic implosion-states. Republicans have already claimed all the states that were due for that under Obama.