Ontario General Election Prediction thread

[King of Kensington]

I made a slight error in my seat tally - should be 64 PC, 52 NDP, 7 Liberal, 1 Green.

[Philly D.]

My turn. Thanks to King of Kensington as I copied, pasted, and made a few changes from his post...

National Capital Region

Carleton - PC
Kanata-Carleton - PC
Nepean - PC
Orleans - Liberal
Ottawa Centre - NDP
Ottawa South - PC
Ottawa-Vanier - Liberal
Ottawa West-Nepean - PC

Eastern Ontario

Bay of Quinte - PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell - Liberal (big surprise! worst NDP result anywhere)
Hastings-Lennox and Addington - PC
Kingston and the Islands - NDP (Liberal in 3rd)
Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston - PC
Leeds-Grenville - PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - PC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - PC

Central Ontario/Cottage Country

Barrie-Innisfil - PC
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte - PC
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - PC
Parry Sound-Muskoka - PC (Green 2nd)
Peterborough-Kawartha - PC
Simcoe-Grey - PC
Simcoe North - PC

City of Toronto

Beaches-East York - NDP
Davenport - NDP
Don Valley East - Daredevil Denzil
Don Valley North - PC
Don Valley West - PC
Eglinton-Lawrence - PC
Etobicoke Centre - PC
Etobicoke-Lakeshore - NDP (I agree with KoK. by 400)
Etobicoke North - PC
Humber River-Black Creek -NDP (this one will be surprisingly close)
Parkdale-High Park - NDP
Scarborough-Agincourt - PC
Scarborough Centre - NDP
Scarborough-Guildwood - Liberal (after a recount)
Scarborough North - NDP (after a recount)
Scarborough-Rouge Park - NDP
Scarborough-Southwest - NDP
Spadina-Fort York - NDP
St. Paul's - Liberal (3-way nailbiter)
Toronto Centre - NDP
Toronto-Danforth - NDP
University-Rosedale - NDP
Willowdale - PC
York Centre - PC
York South-Weston - NDP

905 Belt

Ajax - PC (only 2500 over Liberals)
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - PC
Brampton Centre - NDP
Brampton East - NDP
Brampton North - NDP
Brampton South - NDP (by 200 votes)
Brampton West - NDP
Burlington - PC (by 2500 versus NDP)
Durham - NDP (by 800 votes)
King-Vaughan - PC
Markham-Stouffville - PC
Markham-Thornhill - PC
Markham-Unionville - PC
Milton - PC
Mississauga Centre - Liberal (yes!)
Mississauga East-Cooksville - PC
Mississauga-Erin Mills - PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore - PC
Mississauga-Malton - NDP
Mississauga-Streetsville - PC
Newmarket-Aurora - PC
Oakville - PC
Oakville North-Burlington - PC
Oshawa - NDP
Pickering-Uxbridge - PC
Richmond Hill - PC
Thornhill - PC
Vaughan-Woodbridge - PC (by 8-9000)
Whitby - PC (by 4000 against NDP)
York-Simcoe - PC

Hamilton-Niagara

Flamborough-Glanbrook - PC
Hamilton Centre - NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - NDP
Hamilton Mountain - NDP
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas - NDP
Niagara Centre - NDP
Niagara Falls - NDP
Niagara West - PC
St. Catharines - NDP

Southwestern Ontario

Brantford-Brant - NDP
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - PC
Cambridge - PC (by 2000 over NDP)
Chatham-Kent-Leamington - NDP
Dufferin-Caledon - PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London - PC
Essex - NDP
Guelph - Green (by 2000 over PC)
Haldimand-Norfolk - PC
Huron-Bruce - PC
Kitchener Centre - NDP
Kitchener-Conestoga - PC
Kitchener South-Hespeler - PC
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex - PC
London-Fanshawe - NDP
London North Centre - NDP (closer than most think)
London West - NDP
Oxford - PC
Perth-Wellington - PC
Sarnia-Lambton - PC
Waterloo - NDP
Wellington-Halton Hills - PC
Windsor-Tecumseh - NDP
Windsor West - NDP

Northern Ontario

Algoma-Manitoulin - NDP
Kenora - NDP (knife-edge)
Nickel Belt - NDP
Nipissing - PC
Sault Ste. Marie - PC
Sudbury - NDP
Thunder Bay-Atikokan - NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North - NDP
Timiskaming-Cochrane - NDP
Timmins - NDP
Kiiwetinoog - NDP
Mushkegowuk-James Bay - NDP

PC - 66 seats - 38.14%
NDP - 51 seats - 37.83%
Liberal - 6 seats - 18.24%
Mike Schreiner - 3.81%
Others - 1.98%

I don't think the NDP will be THAT inefficient. The PCs will likely pad their margins in York Region.

[DL]

Well, here is the official EKOS (aka mine) seat prediction: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/

I agree with most of the individual seat predictions...the outer part of Toronto is a bit of a conundrum...polling suggests that the NDP totally dominates inner Toronto and is competitive with the PCs in outer Toronto (i.e. Scarborough, North York and Etobicoke). So it seems odd that the NDP would end up with only 2 seats in outer Toronto...of course some of the other Scarborough seats could be a bit of a crapshoot, but looking at the map of where Ford did badly when he ran for mayor, there are two seats that strike me as possible sleepers for the NDP:

Etobicoke-Lakeshore - the riding poll by Mainstreet (much as i am sceptical of their riding polling) suggested the NDP was very close toi the PCs here and this area actually has an NDP history pre-1995

Willowdale - again, Ford did badly here and this area has changed dramatically and is now largely high rise apartment buildings and is very multi-cultural. This is North York City Centre and is increasingly becoming almost a northern version of Spadina-Fort York 

[jaichind]

I know very little but I might as well try

PC         40%
NDP       32%
LIB        22%
Green      4%
Other      2%

My view is LIB and PC are under-polled and in the end a lot of NDP leaning LIB voters will still vote LIB.  No idea of seats other than large PC majority.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, here is the official EKOS (aka mine) seat prediction: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/

I agree with most of the individual seat predictions...the outer part of Toronto is a bit of a conundrum...polling suggests that the NDP totally dominates inner Toronto and is competitive with the PCs in outer Toronto (i.e. Scarborough, North York and Etobicoke). So it seems odd that the NDP would end up with only 2 seats in outer Toronto...of course some of the other Scarborough seats could be a bit of a crapshoot, but looking at the map of where Ford did badly when he ran for mayor, there are two seats that strike me as possible sleepers for the NDP:

Etobicoke-Lakeshore - the riding poll by Mainstreet (much as i am sceptical of their riding polling) suggested the NDP was very close toi the PCs here and this area actually has an NDP history pre-1995

Willowdale - again, Ford did badly here and this area has changed dramatically and is now largely high rise apartment buildings and is very multi-cultural. This is North York City Centre and is increasingly becoming almost a northern version of Spadina-Fort York 

I know... I also think the NDP has a good shot at Scarborough Centre. I agree Willowdale and Lakeshore are possibilities. I definitely went with the 'safe' picks there.

[Oryxslayer]

Well, here is the official EKOS (aka mine) seat prediction: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/

Uhhh... There are two Thunder Bay-Atikoan's on the list, is that intended?

[King of Kensington]

My turn. Thanks to King of Kensington as I copied, pasted, and made a few changes from his post...

I think this is very, very good.

York Region is exactly the kind of place where Liberal voters from 2014 would have jumped ship long ago.  They see Kathleen Wynne as having turned the OLP into a clone of the NDP.  Very Ford-friendly demos too in York Region.

Not sure why you have the Libs are so close in Ajax though.  But I think you're quite right to pick up on the 905 difference from the federal election - the Conservatives were much stronger in York Region (where they got over 40% almost everywhere in spite of the Trudeau wave) than in Peel and Ajax-Pickering.

Mississauga Centre might be the kind of DVE-esque -style three way race that the Liberals slip through in.  The Liberals will not be winning any two-way PC/OLP races in the 905 - they're just too weak.  

I would love to see Cho defeated, but I don't see it happening.

[King of Kensington]

Hatman, I really like the "footnotes" and thought put into the ridings that goes beyond "the data says so."

But whoa...outer TO is going to be brutal.

[King of Kensington]

Etobicoke-Lakeshore - the riding poll by Mainstreet (much as i am sceptical of their riding polling) suggested the NDP was very close toi the PCs here and this area actually has an NDP history pre-1995

Willowdale - again, Ford did badly here and this area has changed dramatically and is now largely high rise apartment buildings and is very multi-cultural. This is North York City Centre and is increasingly becoming almost a northern version of Spadina-Fort York  

I made an "unorthodox" call for Lakeshore, though wearing a "sober political analysis" hat would probably say PC.  

I agree about Willowdale being a surpriser - it's very "urban" and very different from the Mel Lastman days of the "city" of North York.  It's the kind of seat I think that could surprise if the NDP were polling past 40% and into majority territory.  In addition to being a weak spot for Ford and a pretty strong area for Olivia Chow in 2014, I would also add that it's represented right now by the left-liberal John Filion on council.  In fact, if Zimmer had retired and Filion had run for the Liberals his chances would probably be a good deal better than Shelley Carroll's.

[Philly D.]

I would just like to clarify a couple of things...

Ajax - Although it's in Durham, it is actually, per the 2016 Census, majority-minority, and much of this is Black and South Asian, and they aren't exactly the most PC-friendly minority constituencies (Chinese though... in fact I expect the NDP to be close behind Joe Dickson.

York Region - I wouldn't be surprised to see the PCs approach 60% in a few ridings (King, Unionville, Thornhill). This pattern will extend South and give them all thre Don Valley ridings. In essence the PC here will be a bit more conventional that some expect. This also explains only one seat for them in Scarborough (mind you things will be close).

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell/Orleans - Not much attention has been given to the Francophone vote. I don<t see any reason why they would be Ford-inclined. Furthermore in 2011, the NDP did not even come in second in GPR, despite being next to Vaudreuil and Argenteuil ; in short, I cannot think of anything that would the ONDP do well with Franco-Ontarians in this region. Remember, GPR is 59% Francophone!

In short, I have a map that many would agree with if the NDP were 1 point ahead although I have them half-a-point back. I also have about1.5 points of the Green vote voting block NDP which explains their rise.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, here is the official EKOS (aka mine) seat prediction: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/

Uhhh... There are two Thunder Bay-Atikoan's on the list, is that intended?

Fixed now. It should be Sudbury.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hatman, I really like the "footnotes" and thought put into the ridings that goes beyond "the data says so."

Thanks. These are as qualitative as much as they quantitative.

[Oryxslayer]

I posted this in the main thread, but here is EKOS's prediction mapped:

[King of Kensington]

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell/Orleans - Not much attention has been given to the Francophone vote. I don<t see any reason why they would be Ford-inclined. Furthermore in 2011, the NDP did not even come in second in GPR, despite being next to Vaudreuil and Argenteuil ; in short, I cannot think of anything that would the ONDP do well with Franco-Ontarians in this region. Remember, GPR is 59% Francophone!

Yeah, hopefully GPR and Orleans are leaks in the PC boat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like Mainstreet doesn't even believe their riding polls. They have OWN and St. Paul's going NDP, which contradicts their riding polls:

https://twitter.com/quito_maggi/status/1004789791047614464

I definitely think their calls in Ottawa West-Nepean and Parry Sound-Muskoka are wrong. The rest are plausible.

[King of Kensington]

St. Paul's = Vancouver-Point Grey?

[Hatman 🍁]

To be fair, I contradicted our riding poll that had the NDP ahead in Whitby, so...

[King of Kensington]

Whitby and Burlington seem like mirror images of each other on the eastern and western edges of the GTA.

[DL]

Whitby and Burlington seem like mirror images of each other on the eastern and western edges of the GTA.

FWIW at one time Whitby was part of the federal riding of "Oshawa-Whitby" and was represented by Ed Broadbent

[King of Kensington]

Well, let's hope it's a leak in the PC boat.

[the506]

PC 70, NDP 49, Liberal 4, Green 1.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Final Prediction

National Capital Region

Carleton - PC
Kanata-Carleton - PC
Nepean - PC
Orleans - PC
Ottawa Centre - NDP
Ottawa South - Liberal
Ottawa-Vanier - Liberal
Ottawa West-Nepean - PC

Eastern Ontario

Bay of Quinte - PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell - PC
Hastings-Lennox and Addington - PC
Kingston and the Islands - NDP
Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston - PC
Leeds-Grenville - PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - PC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - PC

Central Ontario/Cottage Country

Barrie-Innisfil - PC
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte - PC
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - PC
Parry Sound-Muskoka - PC
Peterborough-Kawartha - PC
Simcoe-Grey - PC
Simcoe North - PC

City of Toronto

Beaches-East York - NDP
Davenport - NDP
Don Valley East - Liberal
Don Valley North - Liberal
Don Valley West - Liberal
Eglinton-Lawrence - Liberal
Etobicoke Centre - PC
Etobicoke-Lakeshore - PC
Etobicoke North - PC
Humber River-Black Creek -NDP
Parkdale-High Park - NDP
Scarborough-Agincourt - PC
Scarborough Centre - NDP
Scarborough-Guildwood - NDP
Scarborough North - PC
Scarborough-Rouge Park - NDP
Scarborough-Southwest - NDP
Spadina-Fort York - NDP
St. Paul's - Liberal
Toronto Centre - NDP
Toronto-Danforth - NDP
University-Rosedale - NDP
Willowdale - PC
York Centre - PC
York South-Weston - NDP

905 Belt

Ajax - PC
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - PC
Brampton Centre - NDP
Brampton East - NDP
Brampton North - NDP
Brampton South - NDP
Brampton West - NDP
Burlington - NDP
Durham - NDP
King-Vaughan - PC
Markham-Stouffville - PC
Markham-Thornhill - PC
Markham-Unionville - PC
Milton - PC
Mississauga Centre - PC
Mississauga East-Cooksville - PC
Mississauga-Erin Mills - PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore - PC
Mississauga-Malton - PC
Mississauga-Streetsville - PC
Newmarket-Aurora - PC
Oakville - PC
Oakville North-Burlington - PC
Oshawa - NDP
Pickering-Uxbridge - PC
Richmond Hill - PC
Thornhill - PC
Vaughan-Woodbridge - PC
Whitby - NDP
York-Simcoe - PC

Hamilton-Niagara

Flamborough-Glanbrook - PC
Hamilton Centre - NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - NDP
Hamilton Mountain - NDP
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas - NDP
Niagara Centre - NDP
Niagara Falls - NDP
Niagara West - PC
St. Catharines - NDP

Southwestern Ontario

Brantford-Brant - NDP
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - PC
Cambridge - NDP
Chatham-Kent-Leamington - PC
Dufferin-Caledon - PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London - PC
Essex - NDP
Guelph - Green
Haldimand-Norfolk - PC
Huron-Bruce - PC
Kitchener Centre - NDP
Kitchener-Conestoga - NDP
Kitchener South-Hespeler - NDP
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex - PC
London-Fanshawe - NDP
London North Centre - NDP
London West - NDP
Oxford - PC
Perth-Wellington - PC
Sarnia-Lambton - PC
Waterloo - NDP
Wellington-Halton Hills - PC
Windsor-Tecumseh - NDP
Windsor West - NDP

Northern Ontario

Algoma-Manitoulin - NDP
Kenora - NDP
Nickel Belt - NDP
Nipissing - PC
Sault Ste. Marie - PC
Sudbury - NDP
Thunder Bay-Atikokan - Liberal
Thunder Bay-Superior North - NDP
Timiskaming-Cochrane - NDP
Timmins - NDP
Kiiwetinoog - NDP
Mushkegowuk-James Bay - NDP

PC 63 seat 37.8%
NDP 52 seat 36.1%
Liberal 8 seats 21.6%
Green 1 seat 3.7%

[Oryxslayer]

Hex maps for later tonight I made - Toronto really distorts the whole thing.

Also, god some ridings names are long.

[adma]

Funny.  I've been saying all day that I'm *preparing for* a 90 PC/30 NDP kind of result.  But that's a preparation for, not a prediction--I'd rather be open-ended (even on behalf of a worst-case scenario), than be skunked with a woefully incorrect guess.  Likewise a week or so ago, I was "preparing for" the PCs to get back past the 40% threshold and the NDP to settle into a "normalized" low 30s--all of that is plausible given ground-level evidence and, as it turns out, late polls.  But I'm also prepared for all of that *not* being the case...

[DabbingSanta]

Conservative 38%
NDP 36%
Liberal 20%
Green 4%
other 2%

Conservative 65
NDP 53
Liberal 5
Green 1

My guess for London North Centre....

NDP 36%
Conservative 33%
Liberal 21%
Green 6%
Freedom 3%
other 1%

Let's see how things turn out.

Preliminary results for Ontario:
+6.9 Conservative (predicted +2)

Conservative 40.6%
NDP 33.7%
Liberal 19.3%
Green 4.6%
other 1.8%

Conservatives 76
NDP 40
Liberal 7
Green 1


Preliminary results for LNC:
+16.7 NDP (predicted +3)

NDP 47.6%
Conservative 30.9%
Liberal 15.7%
Green 4.6%
Freedom 0.4%
other 0.8%

I was quite a bit off on both predictions, but I don't think anyone was expecting such a huge majority for the PCs..