Ontario General Election Prediction thread

[King of Kensington]

Actually their strongest riding is St. Paul, where they are +10. At 15%, they could lose every riding.

At "+10" according to what source? 

[Hifly]

That, along with PeteB's analysis is pulled straight from the ass.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Updated may do a few last edits on Wednesday night.

PV:
PC 38.1%
NDP 35.9%
Liberal 20.7%
Green 4.2%
Other 1.1%

Seats:
PC 73 seats
NDP 46 seats
Liberal 5 seats


Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- PC
Kingston and the Islands- NDP
Peterborough-Kawartha - PC

905 Belt
Ajax- PC
Oshawa- NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge- PC
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton East- NDP
Brampton North- NDP
Mississauga-Lakeshore- PC
Mississauga-Streetsville- PC

GTA:
Scarborough Centre-NDP
Scarborough Agincourt- PC
Scarborough Southwest- NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence- PC
Willowdale- PC
York Centre- PC
Beaches-East York- NDP
Davenport- NDP
Toronto Centre - NDP
University-Rosedale- NDP
Etobicoke North- PC
Etobicoke Lakeshore- PC
Etobicoke Centre - PC
York South Weston- NDP
Humber River Black Creek- NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St. Catharines - NDP
Brantford-Brant- PC
Guelph- PC (vote split)
Waterloo- NDP
London North Centre- NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- NDP
Sault Ste Marie- PC

Switching Hands (not listed)
Liberal to PC
Orléans
Barrie—Innisfil
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Northumberland—Peterborough South
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Durham
Markham—Stouffville
Markham—Thornhill
Markham—Unionville
Newmarket—Aurora
Pickering—Uxbridge
Richmond Hill
Mississauga Centre
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Mississauga—Malton
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Don Valley North
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Milton
Oakville North—Burlington
Cambridge


Liberal to NDP
Ottawa Centre
Brampton South
Brampton Centre
Brampton West
Scarborough—Guildwood
Spadina—Fort York
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Kitchener Centre
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Thunder Bay—Superior North

[PeteB]

That, along with PeteB's analysis is pulled straight from the ass.

Huh?   What analysis are you referring to, and why the denigrating language?

[DC Al Fine]

I'll throw out another prediction: the Libertarian Party will break 1.5%

[Wisconsin+17]

37,    37,    19

(+6),   +13   -20

60 PC, 55 NDP, 9 LIB

PC Minority.


Sudbury            NDP
Thunder Bay-Atikokan      NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North   NDP
Timiskaming-Cochrane      NDP
Timmins            NDP
Kiiwetinoong         NDP
Mushkegowuk-James Bay      NDP
Nickel Belt         NDP
Kenora-Rainy River      NDP
Algoma-Manitoulin      NDP

Nipissing         PC
Parry Sound-Muskoka      PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke   PC

Bay of Quinte         PC
Glengarry-Prescott Russell   PC
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes   PC
Hastings-Lennox and Addington   PC
Lanarck-Frontenac-Kingston   PC
Leeds-Grenville         PC
Northumberland-Peterborough   PC
Peterborough-Kawartha      PC
Stormont Dundas-South Glengarry PC
Carleton         PC
Kanata-Carleton         PC
Nepean            PC
Ottawa West-Nepean      PC
Orleans            PC
Ottawa South         PC

Kingston and the Islands   NDP
Ottawa Centre         NDP


Huron Bruce         PC
Haldimand Norfolk      PC
Dufferin Caledon      PC
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound      PC
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex      PC
Oxford            PC
Perth-Wellington      PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London      PC
Wellington-Halton Hills      PC

Windsor West         NDP
Windsor Tecumseh      NDP
Essex            NDP
London West         NDP
London North Centre      NDP
London Fanshawe         NDP
Waterloo         NDP
Cambridge         NDP
Guelph            NDP
Kitchener Centre      NDP
Branford-Brant         NDP


Scarborough Agincourt      PC
York Centre         PC
Etobicoke Lakeshore      PC
Etobicoke Centre      PC

Toronto-St. Paul's       LIB

York South-Weston      NDP
Humber River-Black Creek   NDP
Don Valley-West         NDP
Davenport         NDP
Beaches-East York      NDP
University-Rosedale      NDP
Toronto Danforth      NDP
Spadina-Fort York      NDP
Parkdale-High Park      NDP
Scarborough Rouge Park      NDP
Scarborough North      NDP
Scarborough Centre      NDP
Etobicoke North         NDP


Barrie-Innisfil         PC
Barrie-Springwater      PC
Simcoe-Grey         PC
Simcoe North         PC
Whitby            PC
Pickering Uxbridge      PC
Ajax            PC
Niagara West         PC
Flamborough-Glanbrook      PC
Oakville North         PC
Oakville         PC
Milton            PC
BUrlington         PC
York-Simcoe         PC
Vaughan-Woodbridge      PC
Thornhill         PC
Richmond Hill          PC
Newmarket Aurora      PC   
Markham-Unionville      PC
Markham-Thornhill      PC
Markham-Stouffville      PC
King-Vaughan         PC
Aurora-Oak Ridges      PC

Oshawa            NDP
Ste Catherines         NDP
Niagara Falls         NDP
Niagara Centre         NDP
Hamilton West         NDP
Hamilton Mountain      NDP
Hamilton East         NDP
Hamilton Centre         NDP
Brampton Centre         NDP
Brampton East         NDP
Brampton North         NDP
Brampton South         NDP
Brampton West         NDP
Mississauga Malton      NDP


Chatham-Kent-Leamington PC
Kitchener-Conestoga PC
Willowdale PC
Scarborough Guildwood PC
Durham PC

Toronto Centre LIB
Eglinton-Lawrence LIB
Don Valley-East LIB
Don Valley North LIB
Mississauga Lakeshore LIB
Mississauga Streetsville LIB
Ottawa Vanier LIB
Mississauga East LIB

Mississauga Centre NDP
Mississauga Erin Mills NDP
Kitchener-South-Hespeler NDP
Sarnia Lambton NDP
Sault Ste Marie NDP

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Assuming neutral swings (IE, equivalent across all of Ontario), and the Liberals polling at 19%, St. Paul's is their strongest riding where they have a 10 point advantage over the NDP.

Should they poll lower than 19, this advantage would deteriorate. Should the NDP poll higher than 37%, their numbers would deteriorate. Should the NDP's relative swing be greater in the Toronto area, than the Liberals, this number would also deteriorate.

[adma]

I'll throw out another prediction: the Libertarian Party will break 1.5%

With Trillium, Freedom, and Ford also in the picture, I'd reckon that a touch high--though they do now have enough candidates to make such a share "doable"; and who knows if there'll be "Renatagate" blowback...

[adma]

And speaking in terms of before whatever Renatagate may portend: I don't like to *predict* outcomes, but an outcome I was *preparing* for was the PCs going back into the low 40s sharewise, and the NDP sinking back to the low 30s--something which'd accord more with seat count projections combined with Mainstreet-style riding polls.  Which'd be a bit of an Alberta 2012/BC 2013 "surprise" result, yes, I know, but...

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

My head says the PCs take it, but my gut says the NDP narrowly gets to government, whether they overperform their polls and sneak a majority, get a minority government, or make a BC-style deal with the rump Libs and the (possible) Green against a PC plurality. I think the late-breaking Doug Ford scandals painting him as a total scumbag as well as other incidents with PC candidates will hurt the PCs with late deciders, of which there are many this election. I also think the Liberals will underperform, perhaps significantly. I just don't see any great number of progressives going out to vote for them when they've already conceded and with the very real possibility of Premier Doug Ford hanging over them, which is increased if Libs get a large vote share. They may not tell pollsters, but I think many remaining Libs will have a "death-bed conversion" to the NDP when they're in the polling booth and the Libs will be left with just a handful at most of seats in Uptown Toronto and Ottawa. I could see Wynne being the only Lib to survive, which, in a way, would be delightfully ironic.

[wxtransit]

I think in the final popular vote it's going to be about 37-39% PC and 36-38% NDP, with the PCs having a slim majority or minority government in almost all cases due to structural advantages.

[Bacon King]

Bacon King official seat projection

NDP: 66
PC: 55
Lib: 3

[Pericles]

I've got an audacious prediction. Note here the NDP is more efficient than expected.
2018 Ontario election
Andrea Horwath-NDP: 63+45 39.00%(+15.25%)
Doug Ford(lost seat)-PC: 60+33 35.94 (+4.69%)
Kathleen Wynne(lost seat)-Liberal: 1-54 18.44%(-20.21%)
124 seats
63 for majority

[King of Kensington]

My prediction:

PCs  38%  65 seats
NDP  36%  51 seats
Liberals  19%  7 seats
Greens  5%  1 seat

I'll post all the ridings tonight.

[DabbingSanta]

Conservative 38%
NDP 36%
Liberal 20%
Green 4%
other 2%

Conservative 65
NDP 53
Liberal 5
Green 1

My guess for London North Centre....

NDP 36%
Conservative 33%
Liberal 21%
Green 6%
Freedom 3%
other 1%

Let's see how things turn out.

[King of Kensington]

So here goes:

National Capital Region

Carleton - PC
Kanata-Carleton - PC
Nepean - PC
Orleans - PC
Ottawa Centre - NDP
Ottawa South - Liberal
Ottawa-Vanier - Liberal of course!
Ottawa West-Nepean - NDP

Eastern Ontario

Bay of Quinte - PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell - PC
Hastings-Lennox and Addington - PC
Kingston and the Islands - NDP
Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston - PC
Leeds-Grenville - PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - PC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - PC

Central Ontario/Cottage Country

Barrie-Innisfil - PC
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte - PC
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - PC
Parry Sound-Muskoka - PC
Peterborough-Kawartha - PC
Simcoe-Grey - PC
Simcoe North - PC

City of Toronto

Beaches-East York - NDP
Davenport - NDP
Don Valley East - Liberal
Don Valley North - PC
Don Valley West - Liberal
Eglinton-Lawrence - Liberal
Etobicoke Centre - PC
Etobicoke-Lakeshore - NDP
Etobicoke North - The Ford Party
Humber River-Black Creek -NDP
Parkdale-High Park - NDP
Scarborough-Agincourt - PC
Scarborough Centre - NDP
Scarborough-Guildwood - Liberal
Scarborough North - PC
Scarborough-Rouge Park - NDP
Scarborough-Southwest - NDP
Spadina-Fort York - NDP
St. Paul's - Liberal
Toronto Centre - NDP
Toronto-Danforth - NDP
University-Rosedale - NDP
Willowdale - PC
York Centre - PC
York South-Weston - NDP

905 Belt

Ajax - PC
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - PC
Brampton Centre - NDP
Brampton East - NDP
Brampton North - NDP
Brampton South - NDP
Brampton West - NDP
Burlington - PC
Durham - NDP
King-Vaughan - PC
Markham-Stouffville - PC
Markham-Thornhill - PC
Markham-Unionville - PC
Milton - PC
Mississauga Centre - PC
Mississauga East-Cooksville - PC
Mississauga-Erin Mills - PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore - PC
Mississauga-Malton - PC
Mississauga-Streetsville - PC
Newmarket-Aurora - PC
Oakville - PC
Oakville North-Burlington - PC
Oshawa - NDP
Pickering-Uxbridge - PC
Richmond Hill - PC
Thornhill - PC
Vaughan-Woodbridge - PC
Whitby - PC
York-Simcoe - PC

Hamilton-Niagara

Flamborough-Glanbrook - PC
Hamilton Centre - NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - NDP
Hamilton Mountain - NDP
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas - NDP
Niagara Centre - NDP
Niagara Falls - NDP
Niagara West - PC
St. Catharines - NDP

Southwestern Ontario

Brantford-Brant - NDP
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - PC
Cambridge - NDP
Chatham-Kent-Leamington - PC
Dufferin-Caledon - PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London - PC
Essex - NDP
Guelph - Green
Haldimand-Norfolk - PC
Huron-Bruce - PC
Kitchener Centre - NDP
Kitchener-Conestoga - NDP
Kitchener South-Hespeler - NDP
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex - PC
London-Fanshawe - NDP
London North Centre - NDP
London West - NDP
Oxford - PC
Perth-Wellington - PC
Sarnia-Lambton - PC
Waterloo - NDP
Wellington-Halton Hills - PC
Windsor-Tecumseh - NDP
Windsor West - NDP

Northern Ontario

Algoma-Manitoulin - NDP
Kenora - NDP
Nickel Belt - NDP
Nipissing - PC
Sault Ste. Marie - PC
Sudbury - NDP
Thunder Bay-Atikokan - NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North - NDP
Timiskaming-Cochrane - NDP
Timmins - NDP
Kiiwetinoog - NDP
Mushkegowuk-James Bay - NDP

[wxtransit]

I think in the final popular vote it's going to be about 37-39% PC and 36-38% NDP, with the PCs having a slim majority or minority government in almost all cases due to structural advantages.

I'll narrow this down and say:

39% PC - 68 (majority)
37% NDP - 50
18% Liberal - 5 [Wynne loses seat]
5% Green - 1 [Guelph]
2% Other parties - 0

[PeteB]

Here is my final prediction - I will go out on a limb and predict a PC minority, with exactly half the seats in parliament!

Popular Vote
PC - 35%
NDP - 34%
Liberal - 22%
Green - 4%

Seats
PC- 62 seats
NDP - 47 seats
Liberal - 14 seats
Green - 1 seat

INDIVIDUAL RIDINGS

National Capital Region

Carleton - PC
Kanata-Carleton - PC
Nepean - PC
Orleans - PC
Ottawa Centre - Liberal
Ottawa South - Liberal
Ottawa-Vanier - Liberal
Ottawa West-Nepean - PC

Eastern Ontario

Bay of Quinte - PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell - PC
Hastings-Lennox and Addington - PC
Kingston and the Islands - NDP
Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston - PC
Leeds-Grenville - PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - PC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - PC

Central Ontario/Cottage Country/Kawarthas

Barrie-Innisfil - PC
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte - PC
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - PC
Parry Sound-Muskoka - PC
Peterborough-Kawartha - PC
Simcoe-Grey - PC
Simcoe North - PC

City of Toronto

Beaches-East York - NDP
Davenport - NDP
Don Valley East - Liberal
Don Valley North - PC
Don Valley West - Liberal
Eglinton-Lawrence - Liberal
Etobicoke Centre - PC
Etobicoke-Lakeshore - PC
Etobicoke North - PC
Humber River-Black Creek -NDP
Parkdale-High Park - NDP
Scarborough-Agincourt - PC
Scarborough Centre - PC
Scarborough-Guildwood - Liberal
Scarborough North - PC
Scarborough-Rouge Park - NDP
Scarborough-Southwest - NDP
Spadina-Fort York - NDP
St. Paul's - Liberal
Toronto Centre - Liberal
Toronto-Danforth - NDP
University-Rosedale - Liberal
Willowdale - PC
York Centre - PC
York South-Weston - NDP

905 Belt

Ajax - PC
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - PC
Brampton Centre - NDP
Brampton East - NDP
Brampton North - NDP
Brampton South - NDP
Brampton West - NDP
Burlington - PC
Durham - PC
King-Vaughan - PC
Markham-Stouffville - PC
Markham-Thornhill - PC
Markham-Unionville - PC
Milton - PC
Mississauga Centre - Liberal
Mississauga East-Cooksville - Liberal
Mississauga-Erin Mills - PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore - PC
Mississauga-Malton - NDP
Mississauga-Streetsville - PC
Newmarket-Aurora - PC
Oakville - PC
Oakville North-Burlington - PC
Oshawa - NDP
Pickering-Uxbridge - PC
Richmond Hill - PC
Thornhill - PC
Vaughan-Woodbridge - Liberal
Whitby - PC
York-Simcoe - PC

Hamilton-Niagara

Flamborough-Glanbrook - PC
Hamilton Centre - NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - NDP
Hamilton Mountain - NDP
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas - NDP
Niagara Centre - NDP
Niagara Falls - NDP
Niagara West - PC
St. Catharines - NDP

Southwestern Ontario

Brantford-Brant - NDP
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - PC
Cambridge - NDP
Chatham Kent Leamington - NDP
Dufferin-Caledon - PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London - PC
Essex - NDP
Guelph - Green
Haldimand-Norfolk - PC
Huron-Bruce - PC
Kitchener Centre - NDP
Kitchener-Conestoga - NDP
Kitchener South-Hespeler - NDP
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex - PC
London-Fanshawe - NDP
London North Centre - NDP
London West - NDP
Oxford - PC
Perth-Wellington - PC
Sarnia-Lambton - NDP
Waterloo - NDP
Wellington-Halton Hills - PC
Windsor-Tecumseh - NDP
Windsor West - NDP

Northern Ontario

Algoma-Manitoulin - NDP
Kenora - NDP
Nickel Belt - NDP
Nipissing - PC
Sault Ste. Marie - PC
Sudbury - NDP
Thunder Bay-Atikokan - NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North - Liberal
Timiskaming-Cochrane - NDP
Timmins - NDP
Kiiwetinoog - NDP
Mushkegowuk-James Bay - NDP

[cp]

I suppose this is the last moment to do this:

Popular Vote
PC - 37%
NDP - 37%
Liberal - 18%
Green - 3%

Seats
PC- 61 seats
NDP - 50 seats
Liberal - 12 seats
Green - 1 seat

I'd put a side bet on a PC majority of 70 or so.

[PeteB]

So here goes:
.......
Southwestern Ontario

Brantford-Brant - NDP
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - PC
Cambridge - NDP
Dufferin-Caledon - PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London - PC
Essex - NDP
Guelph - Green
.......

No big deal, but I think you are missing Chatham Kent Leamington. 

[Krago]

I'll join the herd with:

PC 70
NDP 50
Lib 3 (Don Valley West, Toronto-St. Paul's, Ottawa-Vanier)
Green 1 (Guelph)


In eight years, look out for Premier Spindler.

Read this not that.

[ON Progressive]

Final prediction:

PC 38%
NDP 37%
Liberal 19%
Green 4%
Other 2%

Riding count:
PC 67
NDP 53
Liberal 3 (Ottawa-Vanier, Don Valley West, Toronto-St. Paul's)
Green 1 (Guelph)

[Oryxslayer]

I'm not well versed in the riding by riding numbers, so I will say:

PC 37.5%
NDP 36.5%
LIB 19.5%
Greens 4%
Other 2.5%

PC majority, and it won't be close, 15 to 20 seat gap between NDP and PC.

[King of Kensington]

So here goes:
.......
Southwestern Ontario

Brantford-Brant - NDP
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - PC
Cambridge - NDP
Dufferin-Caledon - PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London - PC
Essex - NDP
Guelph - Green
.......

No big deal, but I think you are missing Chatham Kent Leamington. 

Added (it's PC).

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, here is the official EKOS (aka mine) seat prediction: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/