Rust Belt/Appalachian House Races Megathread

[Sestak]

For discussion of House races in PA, MI, OH, WV, KY.

[LimoLiberal]

MI-01: The only Dem candidate who filed (and is outraising incumbent Republican Jack Bergman) may be kicked off the ballot:

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/05/01/matt-morgan-democrat-congressional/567971002/

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But...

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MI-01 is a rural district covering all of the Upper Peninsula and large parts of Northern Michigan. 58-37 Trump, but is far far more Democratic downballot and Bergman only won the open seat by 14 points in 2016. Very, very similar district to WI-07.

[Bidenworth2020]

oof

[RINO Tom]

What an odd group to put together.

[Sestak]

What an odd group to put together.

It was originally the first three, I added the other two for balance reasons from the South.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

What an odd group to put together.

It's odd but it isn't at the same time. Rural central/western Pennsylvania and rural eastern Ohio have a lot in common with West Virginia and Kentucky. Columbus and the Philadelphia area definitely do not, however.

I wouldn't have included Michigan, fwiw. That strikes me as more of an overtly Midwestern state.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Competitive races:
Likely D: PA-06, PA-08
Lean D: OH-12, PA-01, PA-07, PA-17
Tossup: KY-06, MI-08, MI-11, OH-01, PA-10, WV-03
Lean R: MI-06, MI-07, WV-02
Likely R: MI-01, MI-03, OH-07, OH-10, OH-14, OH-15, OH-16, PA-14, PA-16

In the words of Chris Hayes talking to Carter Page: "It’s either admirably bold or reckless, but I guess we’ll find out."

[PragmaticPopulist]

Is there any reason why Cook and some people here are saying PA-14 is Likely R? It seems safe to me, and I haven't heard of a candidate running there who could make it competitive.

[ON Progressive]

Is there any reason why Cook and some people here are saying PA-14 is Likely R? It seems safe to me, and I haven't heard of a candidate running there who could make it competitive.

Cook doesn't like to call flips safe for some reason. They have PA-05 as Likely D even though everyone knows it is a free flip.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any reason why Cook and some people here are saying PA-14 is Likely R? It seems safe to me, and I haven't heard of a candidate running there who could make it competitive.

Cook doesn't like to call flips safe for some reason. They have PA-05 as Likely D even though everyone knows it is a free flip.

Because once a seat becomes safe, it vanishes from their list of tracked seats on maps and charts. The seats remain likely so you can see at a glace what is flipping. In comparison DDHQ had two Fairfax VA HoD seats similarly rated Safe D, and you always had to do finger match because they were not accounted for.

[ON Progressive]

Is there any reason why Cook and some people here are saying PA-14 is Likely R? It seems safe to me, and I haven't heard of a candidate running there who could make it competitive.

Cook doesn't like to call flips safe for some reason. They have PA-05 as Likely D even though everyone knows it is a free flip.

Because once a seat becomes safe, it vanishes from their list of tracked seats on maps and charts. The seats remain likely so you can see at a glace what is flipping. In comparison DDHQ had two Fairfax VA HoD seats similarly rated Safe D, and you always had to do finger match because they were not accounted for.

The easiest way to solve this would be to show "Safe flips" as a column like Sabato does here:

[morgieb]

Is there any reason why Cook and some people here are saying PA-14 is Likely R? It seems safe to me, and I haven't heard of a candidate running there who could make it competitive.

Worth noting that Saccone underperformed in the PA-18 areas that are now in PA-14. And the old PA-05 areas are more likely to vote for the right kind of Democrat than the PA-18 areas. It's worth a cute pay, potentially.

But I think the most likely factor is that some people don't like calling flips safe.

[Orser67]

What an odd group to put together.

Yeah, these are some pretty weird regions

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

True they are weird to put together, but it makes some sense. WWC or something idk

[Ohioguy29]

This grouping makes a great deal of sense if you leave Michigan out.

[LimoLiberal]

Cook has an article about the PA-07 Democratic primary entitled "How Democrats could whiff on a top target" but it's behind the paywall.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house

The PA-07 is Dent's old area in the Lehigh valley and the democratic primary has Morganelli, the DA of Northampton county who is Trump-like on immigration, facing Bernie-endorsed Greg Edwards and Emily's list Susan Wild.

[KingSweden]

I’m confident any of those theee PA-7 candidates would be favored.

[LimoLiberal]

ICYMI:

PA-07 poll (open seat in Lehigh valley) - Democrats lead generic ballot and in head to head matchups

http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

[VPH]

Hopefully in PA-07, Edwards and Wild split the left vote and Morganelli wins. Ideological diversity is good for the Democratic Party.

[Ohioguy29]

Hopefully in PA-07, Edwards and Wild split the left vote and Morganelli wins. Ideological diversity is good for the Democratic Party.

Agreed.

[BuckeyeNut]

What an odd group to put together.

Not really.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Hopefully in PA-07, Edwards and Wild split the left vote and Morganelli wins. Ideological diversity is good for the Democratic Party.

If "ideological diversity" means supporting candidates that want to deport Dreamers and don't favor a woman's right to choose, I don't want a part of it.

Go Edwards.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Hopefully in PA-07, Edwards and Wild split the left vote and Morganelli wins. Ideological diversity is good for the Democratic Party.

If "ideological diversity" means supporting candidates that want to deport Dreamers and don't favor a woman's right to choose, I don't want a part of it.

Go Edwards.

I don't mind having Democratic nominees who have different ideas from each other on how to solve certain problems, but they should at least have a fairly strong consensus on what the problems facing society are.

Morganelli does not seem to be someone who agrees on what the problems are, immigration being the most notable example.

[ON Progressive]

Hopefully in PA-07, Edwards and Wild split the left vote and Morganelli wins. Ideological diversity is good for the Democratic Party.

If "ideological diversity" means supporting candidates that want to deport Dreamers and don't favor a woman's right to choose, I don't want a part of it.

Go Edwards.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What's the Dem field like in Michigan's 1st? I find that area really interesting.