SurveyUSA/ABC: California polling accuracy
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:47:47 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  SurveyUSA/ABC: California polling accuracy
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: SurveyUSA/ABC: California polling accuracy  (Read 1210 times)
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 02, 2018, 07:50:00 PM »

I noticed every CA-SEN poll shows a decent chance of a D vs. R runoff, but CA-GOV always shows Newsom vs. Villaraigosa. How accurate is SurveyUSA/ABC in California.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,611


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2018, 07:52:11 PM »

The main problem is who the last minute voters will vote for. Most Feinstein voters know they'll vote for Feinstein, but I imagine things aren't so clear with non Feinstein voters.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,975


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2018, 08:58:40 PM »

Well Villar is a lot more high profile than de Leon and he's getting millions worth of TV ads on his behalf while de Leon has less than a million CoH. Plus Feinstein is an incumbent so the D vote won't be split as much, she'll probably win 50-60% of Dems.
Logged
Pragmatic Conservative
1184AZ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,735


Political Matrix
E: 3.00, S: -0.41

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2018, 09:07:28 PM »

I believe many of SUSA Senate polls only list a couple of the republican candidates instead of all that are running so that probably boosts those in the polls. I doubt that with no one republican candidate significantly more high profile then the others it will be tough for the GOP to get someone in the top two.
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 02, 2018, 09:44:44 PM »

I believe many of SUSA Senate polls only list a couple of the republican candidates instead of all that are running so that probably boosts those in the polls. I doubt that with no one republican candidate significantly more high profile then the others it will be tough for the GOP to get someone in the top two.

It's a hard race to poll on the Republican side because they're all no-ones.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2018, 11:08:10 PM »
« Edited: May 02, 2018, 11:11:41 PM by ERM64man »

Most SUSA polls for Senate include most of the Republicans. Look at the SUSA polls in "Hypothetical polling" and read the "Other" footnotes. They include most of the Republicans in the race (at the time). Why do KDL'S numbers drop significantly when more candidates are included?
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2018, 06:48:11 AM »

Most SUSA polls for Senate include most of the Republicans. Look at the SUSA polls in "Hypothetical polling" and read the "Other" footnotes. They include most of the Republicans in the race (at the time). Why do KDL'S numbers drop significantly when more candidates are included?

Presumably because there are a significant number of Republicans who want to see Feinstein gone but would obviously prefer to vote for a Republican. When given the option in polling to choose R, they're going to be more likely to choose that.

Anyway, it looks like most of the non-SUSA polls didn't include any Republicans. Tthe Berkeley one did, and you can see that KDL's numbers dropped from an average of 19% in the previous polls to 11% when one GOP option was included. With two GOP options, he was at 8% in SUSA's. 

However, I think Feinstein could be in serious danger if it ends up being D vs D, for many of the same reasons that Bernie was able to attract so many votes in states like WV, OK & NC during their closed primaries. Granted, I'm sure there'll be two primary camps in the GOP in that scenario: one will be anti-Feinstein above all else and vote for KDL, and the other will see Feinstein as the lesser of two ideological evils. In the end, it might not make a difference, but I could easily see as many self-identifying Republicans (%) voting for KDL in a D vs D matchup as Democrats.
Logged
Coastal Elitist
Tea Party Hater
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2018, 10:36:11 AM »

Most SUSA polls for Senate include most of the Republicans. Look at the SUSA polls in "Hypothetical polling" and read the "Other" footnotes. They include most of the Republicans in the race (at the time). Why do KDL'S numbers drop significantly when more candidates are included?

Presumably because there are a significant number of Republicans who want to see Feinstein gone but would obviously prefer to vote for a Republican. When given the option in polling to choose R, they're going to be more likely to choose that.

Anyway, it looks like most of the non-SUSA polls didn't include any Republicans. Tthe Berkeley one did, and you can see that KDL's numbers dropped from an average of 19% in the previous polls to 11% when one GOP option was included. With two GOP options, he was at 8% in SUSA's. 

However, I think Feinstein could be in serious danger if it ends up being D vs D, for many of the same reasons that Bernie was able to attract so many votes in states like WV, OK & NC during their closed primaries. Granted, I'm sure there'll be two primary camps in the GOP in that scenario: one will be anti-Feinstein above all else and vote for KDL, and the other will see Feinstein as the lesser of two ideological evils. In the end, it might not make a difference, but I could easily see as many self-identifying Republicans (%) voting for KDL in a D vs D matchup as Democrats.
The Berkeley poll actually included all of the candidates that are running. It mentions this in it's methodology, but it doesn't show the results for all of them. If it is D vs D, Feinstein will easily win. Once Republicans learn anything about KDL, they will be voting for Feinstein. Also as much as some Bernie Democrats don't want to admit. Feinstein is popular among moderate Democrats and Independent voters. Whether it's D vs D or D vs R, I don't see her winning by any less than 60%-40%.
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2018, 02:04:28 PM »

Every runoff poll (all D vs. D) shows Feinstein winning easily.
Logged
brand_allen
Rookie
**
Posts: 57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2018, 01:47:03 PM »

I noticed every CA-SEN poll shows a decent chance of a D vs. R runoff, but CA-GOV always shows Newsom vs. Villaraigosa. How accurate is SurveyUSA/ABC in California.

FiveThirtyEight gives Survey USA a letter grade of 'A,' based on 763 polls analyzed, which puts them ahead of most of the crop (though the rankings haven't been updated since August 2016).

Their final poll of the 2016 senate race from mid-October had Kamala Harris up 21 points. She won by 23.

Their final 2016 presidential poll had Clinton +21, she won by 30.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.217 seconds with 13 queries.