Morning Consult has Walker's approval at 29/52 and it has been consistently poor for a while. This has him at 44/35, a stark difference. I'd still consider this a toss-up, though I don't know too much about Dunleavy.
Morning Consult is junk, but this pollster doesn’t have a good track record either. Their final poll in 2014 had Begich ahead by 6. Would be nice if PPP polled this race.
Agreed, I would say it is probably somewhere in between, hence why I think the race is probably a toss-up. The last article I could find that hinted at Begich running was May 2017, so I'm guessing it won't happen.