Daggett Co UT in 1984
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  Daggett Co UT in 1984
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sinngael
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« on: April 25, 2018, 04:28:20 PM »

What's with the results in Daggett county Utah 1984. Mondale's vote really increases, the highest any Dem gets before or after for a long time. Being in the mountain west, you'd wonder why the swing didn't continue for Dukakis as well, instead it reverts back to normal.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #1 on: April 25, 2018, 05:08:25 PM »

I honestly don't know, I'm confused myself as to why Mondale did so well there.
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sinngael
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« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2018, 05:50:42 PM »

There is a big increase in the number of total votes in 1984 compared to the other elections so clearly that influx of people really affected the results
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TexArkana
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« Reply #3 on: April 25, 2018, 06:34:25 PM »

There is a big increase in the number of total votes in 1984 compared to the other elections so clearly that influx of people really affected the results

The weird thing about this is that the overall population of Daggett decreased by 10.3% in the 1980s. And turnout fell right back off in 1988.

Maybe Mondale's cousin lived there or something.
This is really a mystery to me, somehow Mondale managed to do better in this obscure Utah County than any Democrat since LBJ despite losing Utah as a whole by near 50% and losing nationally by 18%. it's mind boggling.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #4 on: April 25, 2018, 09:49:14 PM »

I’m going with the Mondale cousin theory I like that one lol !
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Skunk
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« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2018, 10:50:18 PM »

According to Wikipedia it's because of the Native American population, though that wouldn't really explain why it was exclusive to Mondale.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2018, 01:59:48 PM »

According to Wikipedia it's because of the Native American population, though that wouldn't really explain why it was exclusive to Mondale.

And looking at Native American-heavy counties in the Dakotas and Montana, as well as Oklahoma, it's pretty clear Mondale didn't get ridiculously high turnout from the group that would explain this result.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2021, 12:20:57 AM »

Three years late but it was just pointed out to me that the answer becomes obvious when looking at the vote totals.

1976: 217 R 131 D
1980: 290 R 109 D
1984: 296 R 227 D
1988: 272 R 132 D

Mondale didn't have this stunning improvement over Carter, someone accidentally wrote down 227 instead of 127 and it never got caught.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #8 on: March 27, 2021, 02:03:31 PM »

Three years late but it was just pointed out to me that the answer becomes obvious when looking at the vote totals.

1976: 217 R 131 D
1980: 290 R 109 D
1984: 296 R 227 D
1988: 272 R 132 D

Mondale didn't have this stunning improvement over Carter, someone accidentally wrote down 227 instead of 127 and it never got caught.
How is this confirmed, by who?  I hadn’t seen that, but it would be a logical answer to a very odd result in such a low populated county.
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E-Dawg 🇺🇦🇦🇲
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« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2021, 02:23:37 PM »

Three years late but it was just pointed out to me that the answer becomes obvious when looking at the vote totals.

1976: 217 R 131 D
1980: 290 R 109 D
1984: 296 R 227 D
1988: 272 R 132 D

Mondale didn't have this stunning improvement over Carter, someone accidentally wrote down 227 instead of 127 and it never got caught.
Honestly, this seems much more likely than such an odd voter increase that was one-sided and only lasted for one election, especially since the increase was one-sided against the candidate that won the state and country in a historical landslide. And if the Mondale vote was actually 127, it would put the two-party vote at about 70 R - 30 D, which is exactly in line with how the county voted in other elections during this time period. Unless there is historical evidence for why this county gained almost entirely Democratic new voters during a Reagan landslide and lost them the following election, I think this was purely a miscount.
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2021, 03:28:08 PM »

There is a big increase in the number of total votes in 1984 compared to the other elections so clearly that influx of people really affected the results

The weird thing about this is that the overall population of Daggett decreased by 10.3% in the 1980s. And turnout fell right back off in 1988.

Maybe Mondale's cousin lived there or something.
This is really a mystery to me, somehow Mondale managed to do better in this obscure Utah County than any Democrat since LBJ despite losing Utah as a whole by near 50% and losing nationally by 18%. it's mind boggling.

Another mystery to add to "unexplained electoral swings" along with Kerry's overperformance in eastern Kentucky.
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Asenath Waite
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« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2021, 03:30:14 PM »

I’m going with the Mondale cousin theory I like that one lol !

Similar to my theory that the freak 70-80 point swing of some rural Texas county (I can't remember which one) from Truman to Ike in 52 was caused by the family of the girl Adlai Stevenson accidentally killed living there.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2021, 05:31:46 PM »
« Edited: March 27, 2021, 05:48:51 PM by Stuart98 »

Three years late but it was just pointed out to me that the answer becomes obvious when looking at the vote totals.

1976: 217 R 131 D
1980: 290 R 109 D
1984: 296 R 227 D
1988: 272 R 132 D

Mondale didn't have this stunning improvement over Carter, someone accidentally wrote down 227 instead of 127 and it never got caught.
How is this confirmed, by who?  I hadn’t seen that, but it would be a logical answer to a very odd result in such a low populated county.
It's not confirmed confirmed, but Mondale gained ~100 new democratic voters compared to the elections immediately preceding and succeeding this one while other votes were mostly static and he also got dozens more votes than D state row office candidates while, again, the R votes were static.

Also the results spreadsheet lists the number of people voting in Daggett county as only 429; adding up all the votes for president in 1984 gives a total vote count of 525. There were more votes for president than people voting. It's extremely obvious what happened here. Actual total votes for president was 425 plus 4 write-ins or undervotes, Mondale got 100 more votes recorded than he should have.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #13 on: April 03, 2021, 12:02:37 PM »

I’m going with the Mondale cousin theory I like that one lol !

Similar to my theory that the freak 70-80 point swing of some rural Texas county (I can't remember which one) from Truman to Ike in 52 was caused by the family of the girl Adlai Stevenson accidentally killed living there.

Most of the Texas panhadle, and indeed large parts of Texas elsewhere, swung massively to Eisenhower in 1952 and have stayed solidly Republican since.
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Utah Neolib
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« Reply #14 on: April 17, 2021, 11:06:30 AM »

Very weird. It is a very low population county, so the percentages might be a bit wonky. I kinda like the “Mondale Cousin theory” though.
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