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January 20, 2021, 05:41:26 AM
News: Chaos in the capitol: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=422360

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  Atlas Fantasy Elections (Moderator: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee)
  The Atlasian Post-Democracy Dies In Darkness
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Author Topic: The Atlasian Post-Democracy Dies In Darkness  (Read 17610 times)
Pericles
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« Reply #275 on: August 14, 2019, 07:54:42 PM »

As a reminder, please avoid responding in races for regions that you're not registered in, responses that vote in one Senate race are the best.
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Pericles
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« Reply #276 on: August 15, 2019, 09:14:37 PM »

The Atlasian Post's August 2019 elections poll is now available for you to respond to. Please respond so we can have as large of a sample as possible, which means as accurate as possible of an insight into the Atlasian public's views heading into the August 2019 midterm elections.
Poll link

Go ahead!

28 responses so far!
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Pericles
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« Reply #277 on: August 20, 2019, 06:16:22 AM »

The Atlasian Post August 2019 race ratings

Here are The Atlasian Post official ratings for the August 2019 elections, which hopefully will provide a helpful insight into the coming election weekend.

Fremont Senate-Likely Labor
Senator Devout Centrist is a strong candidate, and Fremont continues to have a significant leftward lean. Devout Centrist also has no declared opponent, but this doesn't count for much since Fremont has a tradition of last-minute write-ins. There doesn't appear to be a candidate on the right with the ability to win a region-wide Fremont election in these circumstances (or indeed the large majority of circumstances). There have been some concerning signs for the left in Fremont, in particular the defeat of Englightened_Centrist420. While his loss was likely due to being caught as a  Tex Arkana sock, the race was already closer than expected. ON Progressive's margin of only 10 votes in June 2019 to shua was slightly underwhelming. It is possible in a positive national environment for the right that this seat could flip, but the right has a poor record in Fremont and circumstances are far from ideal for them, so Devout Centrist is the heavy favorite (just the possibility of him losing does exist).

Lincoln Senate-Likely Labor
Lincoln has shifted in recent months to be more strongly left-wing, as shown by tack50's strong victory over former Senator LouisvilleThunder. PyroTheFox has so far received no opponent, and is a relatively strong candidate, It is possible a late opposition emerges to his candidacy, but he would still be favored in such a scenario and it is unlikely that Labor loses this seat.

South Senate-Safe Federalist
North Carolina Yankee is a very popular and respected incumbent in a strongly right-wing region. He has already received many endorsements from leading figures on the left, and has received no opponent. I cannot foresee any plausible scenario in which the Federalist Party fails to win this race.

Senate rating-Safe Labor majority
Even if the Federalists win every Senate race up for contention in this cycle-a highly implausible outcome-they would not be able to win a majority of Senate seats and due to the Vice-President's tie-breaking power Labor would retain a Senate majority. The most likely outcome is the current 4 Labor, 1 Peace, 1 Federalist Senate is maintained. Therefore it is Safe Labor.

House rating-Likely Labor/Peace majority
The left currently has a strong advantage with the electorate compared to the right, and usually does better in House elections than presidential elections. Given the left won the last presidential election, this is a good sign for them. The 5 right-wing candidates lack much crossover appeal, while the left-wing candidate slate is stronger. However, midterm elections can be unpredictable with turnout dynamics and last August is an example of this, a large turnout gap* led to the left narrowly losing the House majority. If left-wing turnout is bad and right-wing turnout is strong, the House could flip. There is also the factor of the Poirot candidacy, it is unclear how successful it will be and my personal guess is he won't be elected, and if he is it could easily be a repeat of December 2018 with the right reduced to 3 seats, but that does also create the possibility of a 4-4-1 House. However, the Atlasian right doesn't seem to be pushing for this outcome as they are running 5 candidates, rather than 4 as they have in previous recent elections. The left could lose its majority, but it is unlikely to do so.

Fremont First Minister-Safe Peace
First Minister Scott also has no declared opponent, and is a popular FM with broad appeal. This race is less likely to be seriously contested than the Senate race. Realistically, I don't see Scott losing so this race is Safe Peace.

Not rating Fremont Parliament as I am a candidate for it.

*Of the August electorate 49.2% voted Yankee, 19.5% voted Ninja, 16.9% voted Lumine and 14.4% did not vote in June (many probably joined after). Among the August electorate that also voted in June, it was 57.4% Yankee, 22.8% Ninja, and 19.8% Lumine. This was of course a significantly more right-wing electorate than in June (the right also benefited from running YT for House in that election-this being a change from June 2018).
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Pericles
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« Reply #278 on: August 22, 2019, 03:42:24 AM »

The Atlasian Post's August 2019 elections poll is now available for you to respond to. Please respond so we can have as large of a sample as possible, which means as accurate as possible of an insight into the Atlasian public's views heading into the August 2019 midterm elections.
Poll link

Go ahead!

40 responses so far-this will close soon so last chance to respond!
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Pericles
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« Reply #279 on: August 23, 2019, 06:33:35 AM »

Sorry this is a bit late, but still worth publishing imo.
--------------------------------------------------------------
POLL SHOWS LEFT-WING ADVANTAGE IN AUGUST MIDTERMS, TOSSUP PRESIDENTIAL RACE
Regional distribution
Fremont: 35.7%
South: 33.3%
Lincoln: 31.0%
Preferred Congressional composition
Left-wing majority: 50.0%
Right-wing majority: 31.0%
Neither left or right win an overall majority: 19.0%
Fremont Senate
Devout Centrist: 53.4%
Right-wing candidate: 33.3%
Undecided: 13.3%
Lincoln Senate
PyroTheFox: 61.5%
Right-wing candidate-23.1%
Undecided: 15.4%
South Senate
North Carolina Yankee: 76.9%
"probably just a write-in even though I'm completely fine with NCY": 7.7%
Undecided: 7.7%
Wi-weatherboy1102: 7.7%
Presidential matchup
Jimmy7812: 45.2%
YoungTexan: 42.9%
Undecided: 7.1%
"HOLY CRAP HOW TAF COULD I DECIDE, LOVE THEM BOTH!!!": 2.4%
WI-mvd10: 2.4%
Favorability ratings of potential* presidential candidates
Jimmy7812: 71.4%
YoungTexan: 57.1%
Senatorial approval ratings
North Carolina Yankee: 76.1%
tack50: 73.8%
Vern1988: 64.3%
Devout Centrist: 61.9%
ON Progressive: 61.9%
Comrade Funk: 52.4%
House Representative approval ratings
MB: 71.4%
YE: 66.7%
Razze: 57.1%
JGibson: 54.8%
Wulfric: 47.6%
fhtagn: 40.5%
lfromnj: 38.1%
Tea Party Hater: 38.1%
Alancia: 33.3%
President Griffin approval rating
Approve: 66.7%
Disapprove: 19.0%
Unsure: 14.3%
Direction of Atlasia
Right direction: 50.0%
Unsure: 31.0%
Wrong direction: 19.0%
Party registration
Labor: 35.7%
Federalist: 23.8%
Independent: 14.3%
Peace: 11.9%
Other: 9.5%
ACP: 2.4%
Montfortian: 2.4%

*Come on though, we all know they'll both run.
Note; This poll had 42 respondents.
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Pericles
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« Reply #280 on: August 26, 2019, 11:16:22 PM »

Confirming this.
I've just been hired as a staff writer for "The Atlasian Post"! More news than you can shake a stick at, coming soon!

Fairbol volunteered for the role, and I look forward to seeing what he can bring to this paper and how he can contribute to Atlasian journalism.
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Muad'dib (OSR MSR)
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« Reply #281 on: August 27, 2019, 02:49:48 AM »

Confirming this.
I've just been hired as a staff writer for "The Atlasian Post"! More news than you can shake a stick at, coming soon!

Fairbol volunteered for the role, and I look forward to seeing what he can bring to this paper and how he can contribute to Atlasian journalism.

Nice. Looking forward to Fairbol and Kiwi-cles articles.
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Pericles
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« Reply #282 on: December 04, 2019, 03:30:39 AM »

The Atlasian Post is back, and the December 2019 midterms poll is now up; poll link. Please make sure to respond. With lots of responses, we can have an accurate insight into the mood of Atlasia.
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Pericles
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« Reply #283 on: December 05, 2019, 10:12:30 PM »

Note that I have updated the Lincoln poll now that lfromnj is running for Senate. There was 1 vote for the right-wing candidate, this has been deleted and can the person who submitted it please redo the poll.
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Pericles
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« Reply #284 on: December 10, 2019, 04:00:28 AM »

The Atlasian Post is back, and the December 2019 midterms poll is now up; poll link. Please make sure to respond. With lots of responses, we can have an accurate insight into the mood of Atlasia.

Good response rate so far, but more would be even better! If you haven't done this poll, please respond asap.
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Pericles
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« Reply #285 on: January 13, 2021, 07:19:10 PM »

Lots of people like to say what the public thinks, but now you get to tell us what you're really thinking. Our relaunch will set the gold standard for accuracy, and provide a vital tool for players going forward. Is one or more party about to make a disastrous mistake? Let's find out!
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Pericles
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« Reply #286 on: January 18, 2021, 08:55:31 PM »

Just want to remind people about this poll. I've gotten a good amount of responses so it should be ready to close soon, just want to give you a last chance to get your responses in.
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Pericles
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« Reply #287 on: Today at 12:26:09 AM »

LABOR ON TRACK FOR RECORD WINNING STREAK
Ted Bessell enjoys a clear 18-point lead in the presidential race, (48% to 30% Young Texan, 17% undecided, with the rest being other write-ins or comments). Without undecideds, it is a slightly weaker 15 point lead, (53% Ted, 38% Young Texan, with the rest being other comments) The Labor-led House slate similarly has a lead, leading the right-wing bloc by 12 points (50%-38%) but this extends to 17 points without undecideds (57%-40%). With 60 respondents, we can expect this poll to paint a broadly accurate picture of the result. Therefore, the right must make a major change soon. On current trends, Labor is on track to win another trifecta and this time break the record for consecutive victories in presidential elections.
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