LimoLiberal's Official State Legislative Special Elections Prediction Thread

[IceSpear]

Recap of 5/1 Florida elections

HD-39: R+26, R+20, D+6
HD-144: R+2, D+4, D+6

I was off by an average 6 points in these two elections, though I notably predicted a Republican --> Democratic flip in HD-144 but was incorrect.

Will you ever overestimate a Democrat?

[LimoLiberal]

Texas HD-13 Special Election 5/5 Prediction

Webster (D) - 24
Republicans (there's two) - 76

[Badger]

I thought you were going on hiatus?

He’s a concern troll, he can’t help himself

And a sock for his actual Identity On rrh

[Theodore]

Texas HD-13 Special Election 5/5 Prediction

Webster (D) - 24
Republicans (there's two) - 76

Seems about right

[LimoLiberal]

Texas HD-13 Special Election 5/5 Prediction

Webster (D) - 24
Republicans (there's two) - 76

Final result -

Webster (D) - 20
Republicans - 80

Off by 8 points.

Next Tuesday we have three big special elections for the Pennsylvania state house, along with two less interesting contests in Alabama. Still analyzing fundraising, social media enthusiasm, etc. but things don't look good for Democrats. I will have full race ratings and analysis on Saturday.

[Dr. Arch]

Texas HD-13 Special Election 5/5 Prediction

Webster (D) - 24
Republicans (there's two) - 76

Final result -

Webster (D) - 20
Republicans - 80

Off by 8 points.

Next Tuesday we have three big special elections for the Pennsylvania state house, along with two less interesting contests in Alabama. Still analyzing fundraising, social media enthusiasm, etc. but things don't look good for Democrats. I will have full race ratings and analysis on Saturday.

 

[LimoLiberal]

5/15 Predictions

Next up, we take a ride to the Keystone state for three Pennsylvania state house special elections this Tuesday, coinciding with the statewide and congressional primaries there. But first we have two sleepy special elections in Alabama, one for the state senate and another for the state house.

Alabama:

SD-26 (D)
It's impossible to calculate prez results by legislative district for Alabama, but this seat has been represented by a democrat for many years and consists of most of Montgomery county. Clinton probably got about 60% here. It is likely majority black and Democrat David Burkette should win easily despite a barely existent campaign.
Rating: Safe D
Margin Prediction: 60-40 (almost impossible to predict without presidential numbers)

HD-4 (R)
This district contains rural areas west of Huntsville and seems very Republican, although it's impossible to tell without presidential numbers. Trump probably got around 70% here. Democrat Juanita Healy does not seem to be running a campaign (no facebook page), but she does have a postcards to voters endorsement. Clint Owlett (R) is almost assured of a win here.
Rating: Safe R
Margin Prediction: 75-25 (again, almost impossible to predict)

Pennsylvania:

HD-48 (D)
This Washington county district is almost the inverse of FL HD-114. It voted for Trump by 15 points, but is ancestrally democratic (as is much of SW PA) and represented by a D for most of eternity. The democratic incumbent who previously represented it won reelection 59-41 in the GOP wave year of 2014. Attorney Clark Mitchell Jr. (D) has the endorsement of Joe Biden and seems to be running a competent campaign with ads and a Facebook page with 400 likes. However, veteran Tim O'Neal (R) has 500 likes and seems to be putting up a stiff challenge in a area usually inhospitable downballot to Republicans. This district is fully in the old PA-18, and Conor Lamb (D) won it 52-47 in the March special election. Additionally, Democratic ballots are usually more plentiful in Washington county than Republican ballots in primary elections, which may favor the democrat. For those reasons, I mark Mitchell as a slight favorite, although a GOP win would not surprise me.
Rating: Tilt D
Margin Prediction: 51-49

HD-68 (R)
This geographically expansive, rural seat straddles the NY border. Special education teacher Carrie Heath (D) is running an energetic campaign, with 400 Facebook likes, however this seat, probably one of the most Republican in the northeast, favored Trump by 54 points and any Democrat faces an almost insurmountable challenge. Republican Clint Owlett is a safe prediction.
Rating: Safe R
Margin prediction: 69-31

HD-178 (R)
The marquee matchup of the night is in this well-educated Romney+13 Trump+4 seat in central Bucks county. Lower Solesbury township supervisor Helen Tai (D) is battling Council Rock schoolboard member Wendi Thomas (R). Helen Tai has the facebook enthusiasm, with about 900 likes compared to Thomas' 300. However, this area is still very Republican downballot and Republican ballots are almost ensured to outnumber Democratic ballots even with the competitive democratic primary in PA-01. Tai has the endorsement of Joe Biden, indicating she has a good shot at winning, but the historical nature of this district compels me to put Thomas down as a slight favorite, although a Tai win would be only mildly surprising. This is a key bellwether seat as to whether Democrats' can topple Brian Fitzpatrick - a Tai
win would certainly hint at his vulnerability.
Rating: Lean R
Margin Prediction: 53-47

All in all, my predictions hint at a very status quo night. I don't think there will be any flips, although both HD-178 and HD-48 in PA could defy expectations. Democrats should see overperfomances compared to the 2016 presidential numbers in HD-48 and HD-68, and about the same in HD-178. Alabama's two elections will be fairly boring as well.
 

[KingSweden]

These might be the first reasonable predictions I’ve seen you make.

[LimoLiberal]

Uh-oh. Tim O'Neal (R) wins endorsement of the local newspaper in the PA HD-48 race.

https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-the-special-election-o-neal-is-best-democratic/article_82e016e8-4d7a-11e8-b0a3-eb67537d5817.html

That's the 55-40 Trump district that's ancestrally democratic downballot. After taking into consideration that and the fact that there is hardly any competitive Democratic primaries in that area on Tuesday (while there is a very competitive PA-14 Republican primary) makes me want to move this race rightward.

NEW Rating: Tilt R
Margin Prediction: 52-48

This will be a demoralizing loss for Pennsylvania democrats in an area where they have performed well historically and a Democratic to Republican flip.

[LimoLiberal]

Uh-oh. Tim O'Neal (R) wins endorsement of the local newspaper in the PA HD-48 race.

https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-the-special-election-o-neal-is-best-democratic/article_82e016e8-4d7a-11e8-b0a3-eb67537d5817.html

That's the 55-40 Trump district that's ancestrally democratic downballot. After taking into consideration that and the fact that there is hardly any competitive Democratic primaries in that area on Tuesday (while there is a very competitive PA-14 Republican primary) makes me want to move this race rightward.

NEW Rating: Tilt R
Margin Prediction: 52-48

This will be a demoralizing loss for Pennsylvania democrats in an area where they have performed well historically and a Democratic to Republican flip.

How is a competitive primary on the GOP side good for them?

Competitive GOP primary = higher GOP turnout than Dem turnout = better chance of winning special election.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Uh-oh. Tim O'Neal (R) wins endorsement of the local newspaper in the PA HD-48 race.

https://observer-reporter.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-in-the-special-election-o-neal-is-best-democratic/article_82e016e8-4d7a-11e8-b0a3-eb67537d5817.html

That's the 55-40 Trump district that's ancestrally democratic downballot. After taking into consideration that and the fact that there is hardly any competitive Democratic primaries in that area on Tuesday (while there is a very competitive PA-14 Republican primary) makes me want to move this race rightward.

NEW Rating: Tilt R
Margin Prediction: 52-48

This will be a demoralizing loss for Pennsylvania democrats in an area where they have performed well historically and a Democratic to Republican flip.

How is a competitive primary on the GOP side good for them?

Competitive GOP primary = higher GOP turnout than Dem turnout = better chance of winning special election.

Perhaps, but if it is highly factionalized, supporters of the loser in the primary are prone to be apathetic, causing lower turnout.

[LimoLiberal]

Yep, Republicans are flipping HD-48.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMRSznQmjrs&feature=youtu.be

[KingSweden]

Yep, Republicans are flipping HD-48.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMRSznQmjrs&feature=youtu.be

That’s actually a pretty funny ad.

Anyways - PA primaries are closed. Are the special election ballots separate from the primary election ones (for both parties)? As in, will voters have to request separate ballots, or no?

[ON Progressive]

Yep, Republicans are flipping HD-48.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMRSznQmjrs&feature=youtu.be

That’s actually a pretty funny ad.

Anyways - PA primaries are closed. Are the special election ballots separate from the primary election ones (for both parties)? As in, will voters have to request separate ballots, or no?

I would imagine they're separate ballots since one is an election anyone can vote in, but the primaries aren't.

[KingSweden]

Yep, Republicans are flipping HD-48.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMRSznQmjrs&feature=youtu.be

That’s actually a pretty funny ad.

Anyways - PA primaries are closed. Are the special election ballots separate from the primary election ones (for both parties)? As in, will voters have to request separate ballots, or no?

I would imagine they're separate ballots since one is an election anyone can vote in, but the primaries aren't.

It’ll be interesting to see if that dynamic has any effect (i.e. comparing ballots requested per race by precinct).

[LimoLiberal]

Review of 5/15 predictions.

Predicted, Actual, How far off the prediction was

HD-48: 52-48, 55-44, D+7
HD-178: 53-47, 50-50, R+6
HD-68: 69-31, 76-24, D+14

Off by an average of 9 points.

[Politician]

Review of 5/15 predictions.

Predicted, Actual, How far off the prediction was

HD-48: 52-48, 55-44, D+7
HD-178: 53-47, 50-50, R+6
HD-68: 69-31, 76-24, D+14

Off by an average of 9 points.

Not a single surprise, you were way off again.

[KingSweden]

Review of 5/15 predictions.

Predicted, Actual, How far off the prediction was

HD-48: 52-48, 55-44, D+7
HD-178: 53-47, 50-50, R+6
HD-68: 69-31, 76-24, D+14

Off by an average of 9 points.

Not a single surprise, you were way off again.