MS-Mason Dixon: Hyde-Smith +12; Espy+2 vs McDaniel

[Skill and Chance]

McDaniel's not winning a runoff, that much is clear.

[Skill and Chance]

Tossup/Tilt R with Hyde-Smith, Lean/Likely D with McDaniel. It’s very possible that the runoff will decide control of the Senate.

I wouldn't rule out a Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel runoff here either, though.  If there is a Dem in the runoff and 2017-18 special election turnout is any guide, I would expect the best Dem performance in recent history at the federal level.  Whether that's a win, I don't know.

[Skill and Chance]

No

If Espy is winning, then it means that all Democratic incumbents have already won, and Democrats picked up NV and AZ at a minimum.

I expect the composition of the electorate turning out for the runoff election to be more D-friendly than on November 6. I could definitely see one of McCaskill and Manchin losing (while Dems pick up NV and AZ) and Espy still being competitive in the runoff.

This is probably the median senate result right now.  Weirdly, Nelson in Florida looks top tier vulnerable as well, but Manchin potentially getting to run against Blankenship could cancel that out.  Not sure MS is a better Dem opportunity than TX, though, as I expect Hyde-Smith to make the runoff and there is the R vs. R runoff possibility I mentioned earlier (in which case Hyde-Smith almost surely wins with Dem support).