MS-Mason Dixon: Hyde-Smith +12; Espy+2 vs McDaniel
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  MS-Mason Dixon: Hyde-Smith +12; Espy+2 vs McDaniel
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Author Topic: MS-Mason Dixon: Hyde-Smith +12; Espy+2 vs McDaniel  (Read 1276 times)
PragmaticPopulist
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« on: April 20, 2018, 04:13:22 PM »

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/chris-mcdaniel-could-jeopardize-gop-hold-on-mississippi-senate-seat-poll

Hyde-Smith 46%
Espy 34%

Espy 42%
McDaniel 40%
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2018, 04:56:47 PM »

likely r with hyde smith, lean d with mcdaniel
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OneJ
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« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2018, 05:31:31 PM »

Crosstabs: https://www.scribd.com/document/376900325/Mason-Dixon-April-2018-Senate#fullscreen&from_embed
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2018, 06:25:49 PM »

McDaniel's not winning a runoff, that much is clear.
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2018, 06:38:06 PM »

Tossup/Tilt R with Hyde-Smith, Lean/Likely D with McDaniel. It’s very possible that the runoff will decide control of the Senate.

No

If Espy is winning, then it means that all Democratic incumbents have already won, and Democrats picked up NV and AZ at a minimum.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2018, 06:41:55 PM »

Tossup/Tilt R with Hyde-Smith, Lean/Likely D with McDaniel. It’s very possible that the runoff will decide control of the Senate.

I wouldn't rule out a Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel runoff here either, though.  If there is a Dem in the runoff and 2017-18 special election turnout is any guide, I would expect the best Dem performance in recent history at the federal level.  Whether that's a win, I don't know.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2018, 06:49:34 PM »

No

If Espy is winning, then it means that all Democratic incumbents have already won, and Democrats picked up NV and AZ at a minimum.

I expect the composition of the electorate turning out for the runoff election to be more D-friendly than on November 6. I could definitely see one of McCaskill and Manchin losing (while Dems pick up NV and AZ) and Espy still being competitive in the runoff.

This is probably the median senate result right now.  Weirdly, Nelson in Florida looks top tier vulnerable as well, but Manchin potentially getting to run against Blankenship could cancel that out.  Not sure MS is a better Dem opportunity than TX, though, as I expect Hyde-Smith to make the runoff and there is the R vs. R runoff possibility I mentioned earlier (in which case Hyde-Smith almost surely wins with Dem support). 
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2018, 07:38:29 PM »

Mark my words, McDaniels will not make it to the runoff.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
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« Reply #8 on: April 21, 2018, 11:21:56 AM »

Where are they getting this 33% black sample from? MS is 38% black and Espy will surely increase black turnout if he runs a good campaign.

Obama only lost to Romney by 11.5 despite only getting 10% of white voters.
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Canis
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« Reply #9 on: April 21, 2018, 12:29:46 PM »

Espy should take the Mcclaskil 2012 strategy and run ads for mcdaniel
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