I still rate this Safe Republican, due to the fact that Texas is still a very Republican state because of Racial polarization and a more Republican then normal Hispanic population.
"Safe" ratings are usually reserved for races where the challenger has no funding or stature (or is only self-funding but not being taken seriously) and where polling consistently shows the incumbent well over 50% in ballot tests. While Texas fundamentals favor Republicans strongly, we have to account for O'Rourke's fundraising, this poll result, Trump's underperformance in Texas, and a national environment that is bad for Republicans.
