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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  Quinnipiac-TX: Cruz 47 O'Rourke 44
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac-TX: Cruz 47 O'Rourke 44  (Read 5513 times)
Landslide Lyndon
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« on: April 18, 2018, 12:41:29 pm »

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2536

There are wide party, gender, age and racial gaps, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds:

    O'Rourke gets 87 - 9 percent support from Democrats and 51 - 37 percent backing from independent voters, as Republicans go to Cruz 88 - 6 percent;
    Men back Cruz 51 - 40 percent, while women go 47 percent for O'Rourke and 43 percent for Cruz;
    Voters 18 to 34 years old go Democratic 50 - 34 percent, while voters over 65 years old go Republican 50 - 43 percent;
    White voters back Cruz 59 - 34 percent, as O'Rourke leads 78 - 18 percent among black voters and 51 - 33 percent among Hispanic voters.
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DTC
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2018, 12:44:04 pm »

Voters say Cruz would do a better job than O'Rourke on a number of issues:
51 - 35 percent that Cruz would do a better job on the economy;
49 - 36 percent for Cruz on taxes;
43 percent say Cruz would do a better job on health care, as 42 percent say O'Rourke would be better;
46 - 38 percent that Cruz would be better on immigration;
50 - 37 percent that Cruz would be better on gun policy.


Looks like this campaign is a personality campaign, lol. Texas is still a GOP state, but Cruz is so slimy that he might just be able to lose it.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2018, 12:44:40 pm »

      

Anyway, Quinnipiac is now polling TX as well ?

Niiice.
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darthpi
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« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2018, 12:45:01 pm »

Finally a high-quality poll of this race. And it's actually close!

Oh how I want this one.
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#Klobmentum
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« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2018, 12:45:35 pm »

Jeez Louise
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darthpi
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« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2018, 12:47:17 pm »

Voters say Cruz would do a better job than O'Rourke on a number of issues:
51 - 35 percent that Cruz would do a better job on the economy;
49 - 36 percent for Cruz on taxes;
43 percent say Cruz would do a better job on health care, as 42 percent say O'Rourke would be better;
46 - 38 percent that Cruz would be better on immigration;
50 - 37 percent that Cruz would be better on gun policy.


Looks like this campaign is a personality campaign, lol. Texas is still a GOP state, but Cruz is so slimy that he might just be able to lose it.

A lot of the respondents claim Trump isn't a factor, but this can't be helping Cruz:

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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2018, 12:47:42 pm »

Hello Majority Leader Chuck & Speaker Nancy. YUUUUGE News.
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DTC
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« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2018, 12:49:17 pm »

Voters say Cruz would do a better job than O'Rourke on a number of issues:
51 - 35 percent that Cruz would do a better job on the economy;
49 - 36 percent for Cruz on taxes;
43 percent say Cruz would do a better job on health care, as 42 percent say O'Rourke would be better;
46 - 38 percent that Cruz would be better on immigration;
50 - 37 percent that Cruz would be better on gun policy.


Looks like this campaign is a personality campaign, lol. Texas is still a GOP state, but Cruz is so slimy that he might just be able to lose it.

A lot of the respondents claim Trump isn't a factor, but this can't be helping Cruz:

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Oh yeah, that's another factor lol. Looks like TX still prefers standard republicans, but Cruz & Trump are just pretty slimy.

I'm surprised that the democrats are doing pretty well against Abott though. I would have expected him to win by double digits.


Granted, this is just 1 poll, and it seems a bit more D leaning than I'd expect.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2018, 12:50:33 pm »

Even if Cruz wins by this margin, Democrats are going to pick up 3 seats here.
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Skye
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« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2018, 12:53:57 pm »

Still Likely R. If more polls come out and show a close race, then I'll change the rating.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2018, 12:54:35 pm »

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Go home Texas, you're drunk.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2018, 12:55:23 pm »

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This is the big one. We have got plenty of polls in the past where Trump is down big in Texas, in fact we can probably expect this is normal. However, the gap between voteing behavior and approval tends to stem from the fact that Hispanics heavily dissaprove of Trump but undervote in TX because of a variety of historical and geographic factors. Therefore, the Likely voter base that could have shown up in Noverber can easily approve of Trump/match the national median of dissaproval even as the state is way in the negatives because of the undervote. However, it looks like that voting base is still anti-Trump, which means Hispanics may turn out larger then previously. This is key to Texas potentially being a race.
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DTC
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« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2018, 01:00:26 pm »

Interestingly enough, Beto is doing really well with the white vote (34% compared to Hillary's 24-26%). However, he is underperforming Hillary slightly among miniorities.
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mds32
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« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2018, 01:01:20 pm »

I am not worried about Cruz. He is polling better on every issue in that poll. He's probably still going to win by about 10.
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Skye
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« Reply #14 on: April 18, 2018, 01:03:49 pm »

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Go home Texas, you're drunk.

I kinda like him as a lizard in a human suit that tries to behave like a person.
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#gravelgang #lessiglad
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« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2018, 01:07:39 pm »

itshappening.gif
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AOC Stan
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« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2018, 01:11:55 pm »

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Go home Texas, you're drunk.
Voters say Cruz would do a better job than O'Rourke on a number of issues:
51 - 35 percent that Cruz would do a better job on the economy;
49 - 36 percent for Cruz on taxes;
43 percent say Cruz would do a better job on health care, as 42 percent say O'Rourke would be better;
46 - 38 percent that Cruz would be better on immigration;
50 - 37 percent that Cruz would be better on gun policy.


Looks like this campaign is a personality campaign, lol. Texas is still a GOP state, but Cruz is so slimy that he might just be able to lose it.

OK, so you combine these two things and.....I don't get it, how is he only up by 3 when you combine these things, it looks like all 47% who like him are voting for him already, but then the policies should help him with the undecideds?

Maybe my math is off but this poll makes little sense to me when you dig into it
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #17 on: April 18, 2018, 01:14:23 pm »

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Go home Texas, you're drunk.
Voters say Cruz would do a better job than O'Rourke on a number of issues:
51 - 35 percent that Cruz would do a better job on the economy;
49 - 36 percent for Cruz on taxes;
43 percent say Cruz would do a better job on health care, as 42 percent say O'Rourke would be better;
46 - 38 percent that Cruz would be better on immigration;
50 - 37 percent that Cruz would be better on gun policy.


Looks like this campaign is a personality campaign, lol. Texas is still a GOP state, but Cruz is so slimy that he might just be able to lose it.

OK, so you combine these two things and.....I don't get it, how is he only up by 3 when you combine these things, it looks like all 47% who like him are voting for him already, but then the policies should help him with the undecideds?


Trump.
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Ses
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« Reply #18 on: April 18, 2018, 01:14:29 pm »

Yeah I'm taking this one with a slight grain of salt because of the other result (and I do believe Q-PAC is leaning D a bit this cycle?)
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #19 on: April 18, 2018, 01:14:32 pm »

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Go home Texas, you're drunk.
Voters say Cruz would do a better job than O'Rourke on a number of issues:
51 - 35 percent that Cruz would do a better job on the economy;
49 - 36 percent for Cruz on taxes;
43 percent say Cruz would do a better job on health care, as 42 percent say O'Rourke would be better;
46 - 38 percent that Cruz would be better on immigration;
50 - 37 percent that Cruz would be better on gun policy.


Looks like this campaign is a personality campaign, lol. Texas is still a GOP state, but Cruz is so slimy that he might just be able to lose it.

OK, so you combine these two things and.....I don't get it, how is he only up by 3 when you combine these things, it looks like all 47% who like him are voting for him already, but then the policies should help him with the undecideds?

Maybe my math is off but this poll makes little sense to me when you dig into it
Independants are a larger sample than republicans in this poll, Quinnipiac may be fudging this poll for clicks
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razze
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« Reply #20 on: April 18, 2018, 01:23:57 pm »

Here's how Ted Cruz can still win...
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Ridin' with Biden
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« Reply #21 on: April 18, 2018, 01:48:47 pm »

Voters say Cruz would do a better job than O'Rourke on a number of issues:
51 - 35 percent that Cruz would do a better job on the economy;
49 - 36 percent for Cruz on taxes;
43 percent say Cruz would do a better job on health care, as 42 percent say O'Rourke would be better;
46 - 38 percent that Cruz would be better on immigration;
50 - 37 percent that Cruz would be better on gun policy.


Looks like this campaign is a personality campaign, lol. Texas is still a GOP state, but Cruz is so slimy that he might just be able to lose it.

Lyin' Ted.

Let's spell it out everyone : L-Y-I-N' T-E-D
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UWS
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« Reply #22 on: April 18, 2018, 01:52:08 pm »

Voters say Cruz would do a better job than O'Rourke on a number of issues:
51 - 35 percent that Cruz would do a better job on the economy;
49 - 36 percent for Cruz on taxes;
43 percent say Cruz would do a better job on health care, as 42 percent say O'Rourke would be better;
46 - 38 percent that Cruz would be better on immigration;
50 - 37 percent that Cruz would be better on gun policy.


Looks like this campaign is a personality campaign, lol. Texas is still a GOP state, but Cruz is so slimy that he might just be able to lose it.

Lyin' Ted.

Let's spell it out everyone : L-Y-I-N' T-E-D

He helds the Bible high, he puts it down and then he lies.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: April 18, 2018, 01:54:54 pm »

Yeah, 44% is about what O'Rourke will get.
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DTC
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« Reply #24 on: April 18, 2018, 02:03:55 pm »

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Go home Texas, you're drunk.
Voters say Cruz would do a better job than O'Rourke on a number of issues:
51 - 35 percent that Cruz would do a better job on the economy;
49 - 36 percent for Cruz on taxes;
43 percent say Cruz would do a better job on health care, as 42 percent say O'Rourke would be better;
46 - 38 percent that Cruz would be better on immigration;
50 - 37 percent that Cruz would be better on gun policy.


Looks like this campaign is a personality campaign, lol. Texas is still a GOP state, but Cruz is so slimy that he might just be able to lose it.

OK, so you combine these two things and.....I don't get it, how is he only up by 3 when you combine these things, it looks like all 47% who like him are voting for him already, but then the policies should help him with the undecideds?

Maybe my math is off but this poll makes little sense to me when you dig into it
Independants are a larger sample than republicans in this poll, Quinnipiac may be fudging this poll for clicks

but beto is winning indies by 14 and still losing by 3. they arent fudging party id lol
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