Turkish snap election, June 2018 (user search)
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  Turkish snap election, June 2018 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Turkish snap election, June 2018  (Read 27051 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: June 24, 2018, 05:16:27 AM »

5PM local time would be 4PM CEST, right?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2018, 09:20:22 AM »

So they have a full 4 hours to rig the results before anyone can have a look at them. Wonderful.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2018, 10:35:14 AM »

I see we're doing the classic atlas practice of panicking from early returns/turnout for this election too Tongue

It's raining in Izmir!
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2018, 10:53:17 AM »

Turnout 86.9%. Only microstates, some states with mandatory voting, and Denmark and Sweden reach such percentages. Really don't understand how turnout in Turkey is always so high.

Italy used to have turnouts in the 90s back in the heydays of the First Republic (and even in 2008 it was still above 80).
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2018, 11:06:41 AM »



Nice graph of AKP support over time during the counts.

Based on these numbers, it looks like he'll be over 50 easily.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2018, 11:11:10 AM »

AKP-MHP will also certainly have an absolute majority with these numbers. Perfect.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2018, 11:43:49 AM »

This is really not looking good.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2018, 12:20:29 PM »

UGH, Erdogan will find a way to win this no matter what. This is pointless.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2018, 12:57:30 PM »

Greece, Hungary, Guinea, Venezuela officials have called Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu to congratulate him on the results, according to statement from foreign ministry.

Greece, really? Huh

Other than that, the list makes all too much sense...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2018, 01:02:41 PM »

In a sense that tricks might have been used to magnify the victory margin in an election in which the incumbent was always favored? True, it might fit.
Erdogan would probably would have won any free and fair election...

TIL it's fine to cheat if you were going to win anyway.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2018, 01:06:27 PM »

In a sense that tricks might have been used to magnify the victory margin in an election in which the incumbent was always favored? True, it might fit.
Erdogan would probably would have won any free and fair election...

TIL it's fine to cheat if you were going to win anyway.
Actually, if you used your reading comprehension skills, you would have seen that I have said that pretty much everyone running in the election was flawed one way or another. Even Erdogan.

Rigging elections is not "a flaw".
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2018, 02:03:37 PM »

[...]
It seems SP's alliance with CHP-IYI did not help since at 1.4% they were not able to qualify in any seats anywhere, even in Istanbul.  So we can view 1.4% of the 33.3% of CHP-IYI-SP as wasted.
[...]
Looking at the preliminary seat distributions in each province they only make sense when applying d'Hondt to the alliances and not to the single parties. Therefore the 1.4% of SP still count for CHP and IYI.

I'm surprised about this myself because before the election I already wondered about this, but wasn't able to retrieve any confirmation and therefore assumed that d'Hondt would not be applied to the alliances as a whole.

How interesting.  I was going to check that eventually.  But if so then how does CHP IYI and SP (and for that matter AKP and MHP) work out which party list gets which seats?  Unless there is some registered contract on the allocation method which is also handed over to the election commission.  Sounds very complex.

Of course if true then it works to the advantage of both alliances at the cost of HDP.

It's not that complicated. Italy has used systems like that in the past. Basically, there's a first division of seats between alliances, and then each alliance's seats are again apportioned among its constituent parties using the same formula.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #12 on: June 24, 2018, 03:19:32 PM »

Erdogan sounds really reconciliatory in his victory speech.  It might be because he is in an official presidential palace in Istanbul and not at a AKP party building.  Erdogan underlines his dedication to completing mega projects, such as Canal Istanbul and domestic car.

It's easy to call for reconciliation when it would be reconciliation on your own terms.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2018, 04:48:41 PM »

Worth noting that, in long-term perspective, this really isn't a very good result for Erdogan. This is the lowest total for AKP+MHP since 2002, and by a long shot. I know expectations were that they'd fall below 50%, but the fact that they're barely above it, while back in the days AKP either had an absolute majority on its own or only needed a couple more votes to get it, clearly shows that the country is souring on Erdogan.

Of course, this might not mean sh*t is the transition to dictatorship continues apace...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2018, 04:52:59 AM »

So I would guess that most of them either don't care what happens in Turkey, or think that they shouldn't influence it. Maybe because they identify themselves as German.
Lmao, typical leftist European apologism for indefensible behavior by immigrants. 25% of German Turks are still hundreds of thousands of people.

I agree with Hades: Erdogan voters in the Netherlands should just hand in their Dutch passports and leave. Why do they want to be here if this country is so bad (Erdogan called us Nazis and fascists) and Turkey so good?

Yeah, those big bad Turks are so unforgivable for supporting Erdogan. Now tell me again how Orban is the lesser evil or whatever bullsh*t rationalization you used to excuse his acting exactly like Erdogan.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2018, 07:09:29 AM »

Yeah, those big bad Turks are so unforgivable for supporting Erdogan. Now tell me again how Orban is the lesser evil or whatever bullsh*t rationalization you used to excuse his acting exactly like Erdogan.
Surely you see that in my view, the survival of Europe as we know it depends on maintaining our identities and on maintaining native majorities in our countries.

Hungary is the main EU member state pushing for an end to mass immigration and calling for renewed appreciation for our national heritage. Turkey, on the other hand, is a non-European country with a regime fundamentally hostile to European civilization, as it is Islamist (and therefore expansive) in nature. Ankara actively incites its diaspora to side with Turkey and not with the countries they immigrated to.

Put differently, a Hungarian in the Netherlands voting for Orbán does a great service to the Dutch people, as a vote for Hungary to maintain its identity is also a vote for the Netherlands to maintain its identity. Meanwhile, a Turk in the Netherlands voting for AK does a great disservice to the Dutch people, as the Turkish regime is hostile to the Dutch people, to the Netherlands, and to European civilization.

So this has nothing to do about holding leaders to a universal standard of moral behavior, and everything to do with Schmittian friend/enemy distinctions. Thanks for spelling that out, but if it's truly just a matter of "us versus them" then please spare us the moral outrage.
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