Turkish snap election, June 2018

[BBD]

This is a really great article. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/05/29/does-turkeys-opposition-have-a-chance-at-beating-erdogans-akp-in-june/

[BBD]

Bloomberg sponsored a poll which has Erdoğan-AKP in a strong position

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13/erdogan-fights-to-keep-power-as-bloomberg-poll-shows-tight-votes?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Prez
Erdoğan    50.8%
İnce          30.1%
Demirtaş   10.5%
Akşener      8.0%

Looks like Akşener dropped a lot during the campaign.

Parliament
AKP         46.0%
CHP         27.5%
HDP         11.7%
İYİ            9.0%
MHP          4.8% (in alliance with AKP)

Looks like AKP-MHP in a strong position to get a solid majority with HDP and İYİ at risk of falling below 10% threshold.  The new election law that allows alliances was built to help MHP which is unlikely to cross 10% but now will get seats since it will be on a join AKP-MHP list.

Unsurprising - she's barely received any attention from the mainstream news networks. Erdogan probably believes that she would be a more threatening challenger in the runoff. I just hope that both HDP and Iyi stay above the 10% threshold.

[BBD]

Bloomberg sponsored a poll which has Erdoğan-AKP in a strong position

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-13/erdogan-fights-to-keep-power-as-bloomberg-poll-shows-tight-votes?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Prez
Erdoğan    50.8%
İnce          30.1%
Demirtaş   10.5%
Akşener      8.0%

Looks like Akşener dropped a lot during the campaign.

Parliament
AKP         46.0%
CHP         27.5%
HDP         11.7%
İYİ            9.0%
MHP          4.8% (in alliance with AKP)

Looks like AKP-MHP in a strong position to get a solid majority with HDP and İYİ at risk of falling below 10% threshold.  The new election law that allows alliances was built to help MHP which is unlikely to cross 10% but now will get seats since it will be on a join AKP-MHP list.

Unsurprising - she's barely received any attention from the mainstream news networks. Erdogan probably believes that she would be a more threatening challenger in the runoff. I just hope that both HDP and Iyi stay above the 10% threshold.

Aren't İYİ and the Felicity Party in an alliance with the CHP, so that they would benefit from the new law as well, in the same way the MHP would?

In any case case İnce seems to be a strong candidate who can attract many voters, mainly from İYİ of course.

Yep. The CHP loaned 15 MPs to Iyi to allow them to run in the elections.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-05-02/turkish-opposition-parties-to-sign-four-way-election-alliance-on-thursday-ntv

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/04/iyi-party-joined-15-mps-approved-run-turkey-polls-180422145859636.html


Ince really does have the capability to hold down both nationalist-secularist voters and Kurdish voters in the runoff. He has a long reputation of being a staunch Kemalist, but he was one of the few CHP MPs who voted against removing immunity for HDP MPs. He just had a pretty large rally in Diyarbakir. Tayyip might not be quaking in his boots yet, but he underestimates Ince at his own peril.

[BBD]

Turnout among Turks abroad in Austria and Germany is very low so far:

Only 24% have voted in both countries so far, with only 6 days left to vote for those abroad.

For the constitutional referendum last year, about 50% voted in both countries.

http://orf.at/stories/2442858

Could be a bad sign for Erdogan.

Don't worry, the electoral fraud will make up for it.

[BBD]

Lower turnout might mean that (among Turkish expats) neither side, Erdogan supporters, or the opposition are particularly enthused. I suspect the first - there simply isn't as much excitement for the snap election as the referendum, important as it is, both overseas and at home.

[BBD]

https://ahvalnews.com/2018-elections/turkish-electoral-authorities-remove-key-vote-security-measure

YSK permits unstamped ballots just days before the first round of elections.

[BBD]

Apparently the Anadolu Agency "inadvertently" released a "mock" broadcast of election results that showed Erdogan winning the first round with around 52% of the vote. They're now planning to sue all those that dare point out their impropriety.

It sure is interesting to ponder why and how such a mistake would occur, 2 days before election day...

[BBD]

https://twitter.com/selingirit/status/1010924014250979328

[BBD]

https://twitter.com/scsazak/status/1010930713296887808

Tayyip's not going to make it above 50%. The HDP will also probably end up above the 10% benchmark.

[BBD]

https://twitter.com/AydinSezer06/status/1010923175742492672

The "official" Anadolu Agency results are taken directly from the AKP's provincial headquarters.

[BBD]

Excellent graph highlighting Anadolu Agency's manipulation in reporting election results.

Blue = April 2017 Referendum "yes" votes

Orange = November 2015 AKP votes

Gray = June 2015 AKP votes

[BBD]

https://twitter.com/scsazak/status/1010939560220594176

It's beyond obvious that they're trying to scare off opposition ballot box watchers.

[BBD]

The real election results:

[BBD]

When the economy crashes, it's all on him. That's one of the few positives of the AKP-MHP alliance holding the majority - he has no way to shift the blame to the opposition. He will be done for, once and for all.