Turkish snap election, June 2018

[Tender Branson]

Turnout among Turks abroad in Austria and Germany is very low so far:

Only 24% have voted in both countries so far, with only 6 days left to vote for those abroad.

For the constitutional referendum last year, about 50% voted in both countries.

http://orf.at/stories/2442858

Could be a bad sign for Erdogan.

[Tender Branson]

In many ways Erdoğan calling an early election is a genius move.  There are all sorts of economic storm clouds on the horizon but currently the labor market is still robust.  But it is clear when the Turkey central bank raised interest rates from 8% to 13.6% earlier this month that 2019 will see a very significant economic slowdown.  And that is not all as TRY started falling again this week which means more action might be needed.  So to have the election in late 2019 would be a disaster for Erdoğan and AKP given the likely economic circumstances.  A early election avoids this problem while the average voter are still experiencing a fairly positive economic environment. 

Despite all of this, there could still be some kind of Erdogan-fatigue right now - which is strong enough this time to keep him below 50% in a runoff. A bit unlikely, but not totally out of question.

Anyway, I'd applaud the Turkish voters if they have the balls to vote him out.

[Tender Branson]

Because of low turnout so far, the AKP in Austria and Germany is now busing Turkish citizens to the consulates in Vienna and elsewhere.

But it seems there's generally less enthusiasm this time ...

Also, on Wikipedia, the latest polls show that Erdogan has dropped back a bit to 42-46% of the vote and the AKP to as low as 40%.

Are they getting nervous ? Even Erdogan and his cronies cannot fake millions of additional votes that are needed for a win, when he has no more than 45-48% support for the runoff.

[Tender Branson]

What would be causing that drop in enthusiasm among overseas voters?

Hard to tell ...

Maybe some of the previous voters have finally come to the conclusion that it's better for them to integrate somewhat into our societies where they live, rather than back this Islamo-Fascist abroad.

But this is unlikely.

Maybe there's just some general Erdogan-fatigue after 15 or so years. Or they simply will vote in the last few days.

[Tender Branson]

I can definitely see there being fatigue. This is the fourth major Turkish election in three years (June 2015, November 2015, 2017 referendum, this election), and we have seen voter fatigue over less.

Yepp.

On the other hand, his war-mongering in Syria in the Kurdish-held areas that the Turkish army occupied, could bail him out once more for a last time ... it's very popular with the nationalist Turk crowd.

You know: "We need more space to live." => like Hitler said.

[Tender Branson]

Every day, I grow a bit more confident that Erdogan could be ousted next Sunday.

This article from the "Kurier" mentions that Ince (his popular, main opponent) recently held a very huge rally in Kayseri, a city which voted for the AKP over the CHP by a 67-12 margin last time - indicating a big enthusiasm for the populist Social Democrat.

At the rally, Ince called Erdogan "tired" and "politically bankrupt".

https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/erdogan-muede-und-politisch-bankrott/400052174

[Tender Branson]

The "Standard" newspaper has visited the Turkish consulate in Vienna, where Turkish citizens can vote between 9am and 9pm each day (until Tuesday).



They talked with voters as well. While pro-Erdogan voters are still fairly confident that he/AKP will reach absolute majorities, the voters of the opposition parties are also pretty optimistic this time. Since Austria is an Erdogan-stronghold (more than 80% voted for him in 2014), this should be good news for the opposition candidates. Turnout was described as a "steady flow throughout the day", but not "very high".

Pro-Erdogan voters also said that the recent actions by ÖVP-FPÖ to close some extremist Turkish/Saudi-financed mosques and the deportations of imams made them more likely to vote for him (which probably also was ÖVP/FPÖ's secret intent).

https://derstandard.at/2000081583218/Indirekte-Wahlkampfhilfe-fuer-Erdogan

[Tender Branson]

Turnout among Turks abroad as of yesterday (they still have until tomorrow to vote):

Austria: 42.4%
Germany: 40.7%
Switzerland: 36.8%

In the 2017 referendum, final turnout was 50.6% in Austria, 48.7% in Germany and 57.1% in Switzerland.

So, turnout will be slightly lower here and in Germany and significantly lower in Switzerland (which has a high anti-Erdogan Kurdish population).

So, in a sense, these numbers might be good for Erdogan ?

[Tender Branson]

Today is the last day for Turks abroad to vote.

Turnout until yesterday evening (massive uptick in Switzerland compared with Sunday numbers):

Austria: 47.7%
Germany: 46.1%
Switzerland: 49.2%
Worldwide: 45.3%

In the 2017 referendum, final turnout was 50.6% in Austria, 48.7% in Germany, 57.1% in Switzerland and 47.9% worldwide.

There's also no evidence in these numbers that ÖVP-FPÖ's decision to close some Turkish-financed mosques is increasing turnout among Turks here.

[Tender Branson]

So the overseas turnout will be higher than 2017 in the end? That's not good news at all.

Nobody knows ... it's always very hard to read anything out of turnout reports. Remember when the high turnout was supposed to help Hillary ?

[Tender Branson]

Final turnout:

Austria: 51.8%
Germany: 49.7%
Switzerland: 56.7%
Worldwide: 48.8%

In the 2017 referendum, final turnout was 50.6% in Austria, 48.7% in Germany, 57.1% in Switzerland and 47.9% worldwide.

So, no big changes.

[Tender Branson]

Apparently the Anadolu Agency "inadvertently" released a "mock" broadcast of election results that showed Erdogan winning the first round with around 52% of the vote. They're now planning to sue all those that dare point out their impropriety.

It sure is interesting to ponder why and how such a mistake would occur, 2 days before election day...

I have seen the exact same "test results" thing on AP election results pages for the US as well a few days before an election.

Nothing strange, except if it happens in countries with weak & bullied election commissions such as in Turkey ...

[Tender Branson]

This election is probably the best supervised so far in Turkey - by the opposition:

http://orf.at/stories/2444081/2444080

The CHP plans to send 2 of their election observers to each of the 180.000 voting booths, 360.000 in total.

The Kurdish HDP plans to deploy 110.000 of their election observers and the IYI-party 130.000.

An NGO will deploy another 40.000 poll watchers.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

While it's definitely possible that the polarizing Erdogan already wins in round 1, I predict that he'll have to deal with a runoff this time, because Akşener is attracting enough conservative/nationalist votes from his voter pool to keep him below 50%.

46% Erdoğan => runoff
30% İnce => runoff
12% Akşener
10% Demirtaş
  2% Others

Turnout: 80%

Parliament:

41% AKP
28% CHP
11% HDP
11% IYI
  7% MHP
  2% Others

48% AKP-MHP alliance
50% CHP-HDP-IYI opposition

[Tender Branson]

HUGE crowds turning out for Ince's final campaign events in Istanbul, Izmir & Ankara:

(... looking good. But as we all know, huge crowd sizes often do not indicate a win. Just ask Presidents Bernie Sanders or Norbert Hofer.)

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now open.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Presidential results page in English (+ previous election results):

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/secim-cumhurbaskanligi-2018/secim-sonuclari

Parliamentary results page:

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/secim-2018/secim-sonuclari

[Tender Branson]

First major irregularities have been reported from the southern province of Sanliurfa, on the Syrian border (an AKP, but also Kurdish stronghold).

A pre-stuffed ballot box has appeared, 3 men tried to enter a polling station with bundles of 1000 ballot papers, CHP election commission members were hit by AKP-supporters, people running around with guns on the streets to intimidate voters, men voting for their wives etc. etc.

Audrey Glover, head of the OSCE election observers, said their team is unable to visit/observe in the province because of security reasons.

The Turkish election commission YSK has said they will "investigate" these reports.

https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/tuerkei-wahl-erdogan-spricht-von-demokratischer-revolution/400056056

5PM local time would be 4PM CEST, right?

Yes, but there's an embargo for results/exit polls until 9pm local time (8pm CEST).

[Tender Branson]

In total, there are more than 59 million eligible voters:

56,322,632 in Turkey and 3,049,065 abroad.

Turnout would need to be at 84.22% for more than 50 million votes cast.

[Tender Branson]

First major irregularities have been reported from the southern province of Sanliurfa, on the Syrian border (an AKP, but also Kurdish stronghold).

A pre-stuffed ballot box has appeared, 3 men tried to enter a polling station with bundles of 1000 ballot papers, CHP election commission members were hit by AKP-supporters, people running around with guns on the streets to intimidate voters, men voting for their wives etc. etc.

Audrey Glover, head of the OSCE election observers, said their team is unable to visit/observe in the province because of security reasons.

The Turkish election commission YSK has said they will "investigate" these reports.

https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/tuerkei-wahl-erdogan-spricht-von-demokratischer-revolution/400056056

5PM local time would be 4PM CEST, right?

Yes, but there's an embargo for results/exit polls until 9pm local time (8pm CEST).

I'm soooo shocked the Muslim fundamentalists are the ones intimidating voters with extreme violence and marginalizing women... Who would've thought?? I was sure it'd be the evil secularists!

Yeah, but aside from those incidents near the Syrian border, it seems to me that the election is held in a good enough manner so far.

[Tender Branson]

Pictures of major candidates voting:

Erdogan



Ince



Aksener:



Pictures of people voting:

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/pg/photo-gallery/voting-begins-in-turkey-s-elections

[Tender Branson]

First major irregularities have been reported from the southern province of Sanliurfa, on the Syrian border (an AKP, but also Kurdish stronghold).

A pre-stuffed ballot box has appeared, 3 men tried to enter a polling station with bundles of 1000 ballot papers, CHP election commission members were hit by AKP-supporters, people running around with guns on the streets to intimidate voters, men voting for their wives etc. etc.

Audrey Glover, head of the OSCE election observers, said their team is unable to visit/observe in the province because of security reasons.

The Turkish election commission YSK has said they will "investigate" these reports.

https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/tuerkei-wahl-erdogan-spricht-von-demokratischer-revolution/400056056

5PM local time would be 4PM CEST, right?

Yes, but there's an embargo for results/exit polls until 9pm local time (8pm CEST).

I'm soooo shocked the Muslim fundamentalists are the ones intimidating voters with extreme violence and marginalizing women... Who would've thought?? I was sure it'd be the evil secularists!

Yeah, but aside from those incidents near the Syrian border, it seems to me that the election is held in a good enough manner so far.

Or they have just been sneaky enough that there hasn't been any reporting of the irregularities.

Unlikely - at least on a large scale - because the opposition has been staffing every polling precinct much better with their own people than in previous elections.

[Tender Branson]

There is no official word on turnout but when Erdogan voted around 2pm he said that turnout seems high and had already reached 50%.

Not surprising that turnout will be really high this time.

It's a combined election for President & Parliament, with the additional chance of ousting Erdogan that mobilizes supporters and opponents.

It will likely end up ~ 85%.

[Tender Branson]

It's been nearly an hour and still no results...

No, polls only close in 7 minutes.

And then there's an embargo for results for another 4 hours.

[Tender Branson]

3 dead in Erzurum province during a fight in a polling station.

Among them the provincial leader of the IYI party there.

[Tender Branson]

Also, why is there a 4 hour embargo?

Not sure why there's a 4-hour embargo until the results from the Turkish election commission are forwarded to the media ...

In Venezuela, they do it because they need to fake the results in favour of the government party in these hours, if they do not like the results that are sent to them from the precincts.