Turkish snap election, June 2018

[Oryxslayer]

All hail Neo-Ottomanism and the restoration of Sultan Erdogan!

[Oryxslayer]

I was also more referring to this rather then the old empire: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neo-Ottomanism

[Oryxslayer]

What would be causing that drop in enthusiasm among overseas voters?

Well, if there is a general drop in enthusiasm among Erdogan/AKP supporters it would be reflected quite strong in the pro-Erdogan overseas communities. Why would there be a general drop though...I suspect it has something to do with the fact voters never really like being called to the polls for snap elections. Especially snap elections designed to reinforce the ruling party like 2017's UK election.

[Oryxslayer]

Final turnout:

Austria: 51.8%
Germany: 49.7%
Switzerland: 56.7%
Worldwide: 48.8%

In the 2017 referendum, final turnout was 50.6% in Austria, 48.7% in Germany, 57.1% in Switzerland and 47.9% worldwide.

So, no big changes.

Turnout in the Netherlands at 121k, slightly higher than the 116k in the referendum last year and higher than ever. Will be somewhere around 50%.

So I guess the Erdogan domination narrative is back on the menu? There would have to be a big divide between the national vote and the vote from abroad to mean he doesn't lose. On the other hand, Erdogan ended up winning the referendum by not that much, losing Istanbul and Ankara which the AKP won hand over fist in 2015, so perhaps it points to a close-ish AKP win.

[Oryxslayer]

Huge march in Izmir for Ince. Even if Erdogan wins, turkeys opposition is vibrant and flourishing imo.

Izmir is kind of home turf for the CHP / the opposition though isn't it?

Which makes me think, was the Justice march last summer perhaps a good indicator of what we, might, be seeing this weekend? As in opponents marching through what you might have thought of as Erdogan's heartland.

Well, it the results do end up being close, then traditionally pro-Erdogan area will go opposition. I recall from the referendum watching as the the more pro-opposition ballots arrived late (either because city centers, or the Expat vote is counted first - I don't know which) watching first Istanbul, then Ankara flip from Yes to No. A close race probably entails both of these areas going for the opposition, despite being traditional Erdogan areas - especially Istanbul.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1010480256325734400

Its pretty clear this poll was designed to push a narrative, but it is surprising if the numbers end up close to true.

[Oryxslayer]

My feeling is eerily similar to before the last Israeli election, when we though there was hope and Bibi won decisively. I hope it won't be the same here- if Erdogan is somehow defeated in the end, it'll be an amazing day.

On the other hand its almost like seeing Malaysia 2018 on repeat - at least pre-election. All the ground hope and 'gut knowledge' seemed to be with the opposition, but practical statistics pointed to a close BN win. The main difference I feel is the Erdogan has many more authoritarian tools at his disposal then Najib did, so its even easier to see him winning.

[Oryxslayer]

What time in Turkey do the polls close, so I know when to wake up to watch results roll in?

8 am to 5 pm Turkish Time, results expected to start coming in around 9 pm - 3 pm est. Found in NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/23/world/asia/turkey-elections.html

[Oryxslayer]

First major irregularities have been reported from the southern province of Sanliurfa, on the Syrian border (an AKP, but also Kurdish stronghold).

A pre-stuffed ballot box has appeared, 3 men tried to enter a polling station with bundles of 1000 ballot papers, CHP election commission members were hit by AKP-supporters, people running around with guns on the streets to intimidate voters, men voting for their wives etc. etc.

Audrey Glover, head of the OSCE election observers, said their team is unable to visit/observe in the province because of security reasons.

The Turkish election commission YSK has said they will "investigate" these reports.

https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/tuerkei-wahl-erdogan-spricht-von-demokratischer-revolution/400056056

5PM local time would be 4PM CEST, right?

Yes, but there's an embargo for results/exit polls until 9pm local time (8pm CEST).

I'm soooo shocked the Muslim fundamentalists are the ones intimidating voters with extreme violence and marginalizing women... Who would've thought?? I was sure it'd be the evil secularists!

Yeah, but aside from those incidents near the Syrian border, it seems to me that the election is held in a good enough manner so far.

Or they have just been sneaky enough that there hasn't been any reporting of the irregularities.

[Oryxslayer]

It's been nearly an hour and still no results...

5 more hours.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, why is there a 4 hour embargo?

Not sure why there's a 4-hour embargo until the results from the Turkish election commission are forwarded to the media ...

In Venezuela, they do it because they need to fake the results in favour of the government party in these hours, if they do not like the results that are sent to them from the precincts.

According to the Guardian, this embargo time has historically been reduced once the govt is sure there is nobody left in line voting.

Also, does anyone know why the early votes favor the AKP - I also recall this from the referendum. Is it because just pro-AKP parts of the provinces are counted first, of is it because of a reporting bias  where some regions count quicker? Or is it because the ex-pat vote comes in first which gives erdogan a nice cushion?

Edit: Looks like this was just answered

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1010890561832783874

We knew turnout was going to be high - it just depends which areas: the pro-opposition coast/kurdish regions or the pro-erdogan interior are producing the 90%'s rather then the 80%'s.

[Oryxslayer]

CNN Turk quotes  Erdogan "It is too early to say something, We are good"

Link? I wouldn't mind a broadcast kinda free from the general AKP censorship.

[Oryxslayer]

Found on twitter

İl: AMASYA
Açılan sandık: % 21

RT ERDOĞAN % 54.1
M İNCE 17.2
M AKŞENER 18.7
S DEMİRTAŞ 0.1
T KARAMOLLAOĞLU 7.5
D PERİNÇEK 2.4

MİLLETVEKİLİ

AK PARTİ 44.6
CHP 17.2
MHP 12.6
 İP 13.7
HDP 0.1
SP 11.2
Diğer 0.6

-----------

Back in Nov 2015 AMASYA went went 51.66% for AKP.  If so here AKP+MHP is beating AKP of Nov 2015... good sign for  Erdogan/AKP

Did you listen when we said the early results are favorable to Erdogan? This is both true nationally and provincially, with the later numbers being more opposition friendly. If anything its a problem for Erdogan that he is not further ahead in the early numbers here.

[Oryxslayer]

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-elections-2018/

Results page I found. Still no data.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, official results are coming apparently in 10-15 minutes, so no need for rumor-mongering.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1010913116593500160

[Oryxslayer]

Nice graph of AKP support over time during the counts.

[Oryxslayer]

From The Guardian:

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[Oryxslayer]

HDP at 8.3% parliamentary. Fortunately for them, the Kurdish regions are under-reporting, and they can expect to climb towards 10%.

[Oryxslayer]

CHP has announced that they are expecting to make the runoff.

[Oryxslayer]

Ince just tweeted that the Anadolu News Agency (which is responsible for all reporting sites for the media) deliberately manipulates the reporting of the results, by reporting primarily pro-Erdogan areas and keeping CHP areas up for late.

Mostly to discourage CHP election commission members to leave the precincts. Ince calls on all commission members to remain in the polling places, so that the Erdogan-crowd can't manipulate later on.

Makes sense, all the opposition areas are really behind in their counts. If so, then there may be votes out there beyond the ordinary AKP trendline.

[Oryxslayer]

Ince just tweeted that the Anadolu News Agency (which is responsible for all reporting sites for the media) deliberately manipulates the reporting of the results, by reporting primarily pro-Erdogan areas and keeping CHP areas up for late.

Mostly to discourage CHP election commission members to leave the precincts. Ince calls on all commission members to remain in the polling places, so that the Erdogan-crowd can't manipulate later on.

Makes sense, all the opposition areas are really behind in their counts. If so, then there may be votes out there beyond the ordinary AKP trendline.

That would be correct.

It would appear that something like this is happening, The Guardian is reporting the independent news sources have Erdogan's numbers lower the the official site.

[Oryxslayer]

To put the count in perspective:

AKP areas:

Kastamonu - 92%
Yozgat - 87.4%
Artvin - 95.6%

Opposition, or area Opposition should do decent:
Izmir - 48%
Van - 60.9%
Mersin - 62.7%
Ankara - 69.1%


The BBC has a graphic, but because the independents have a lower %  count and are collecting from different areas, they both could be correct. Especially if the opposition areas are being purposefully delayed.

[Oryxslayer]

AKP drops below 300, buy AKP-MHP still have a majority.