Turkish snap election, June 2018 (user search)
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  Turkish snap election, June 2018 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Turkish snap election, June 2018  (Read 27047 times)
TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« on: June 22, 2018, 12:21:08 PM »

Would HDP join the government or enter a confidence-and-supply deal with the Nation Alliance if the AKP and MHP were denied a majority?
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #1 on: June 23, 2018, 11:13:50 PM »

While there is unfortunately hardly a chance Erdogan loses, I hope the AKP and MHP lose the majority.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2018, 11:50:32 AM »

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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2018, 12:18:16 PM »

Just as I expected: the government total is going to show Akşener losing more support than the polls suggested while Ince remains about the same.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2018, 02:15:39 PM »

Official government seat projection puts AKP-MHP at 308 seats, 7 above the majority:

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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2018, 02:33:34 PM »

Official government seat projection puts AKP-MHP at 308 seats, 7 above the majority:



Other media outlets has AKP-MHP at 342 seats
https://www.yenisafak.com/secim-2018/ittifak-secim-sonuclari

CNN Turk has AKP-MHP at 344.

Turns out Europe Elects messed it up. AKP should've been at 295.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2018, 04:03:01 PM »

It seems AKP-MHP actually improved on their performance in Nov 2015 in Kurdish areas.  The 2017 referendum already saw a large gap between the Yes vote and the Nov 2015 AKP+MHP vote shares.  It seems that carried over into this election.  Just like the Kurdish areas saved Erdogan in the 2017 referendum if the AKP-MHP saw a large swing against it in Kurdish areas then perhaps Erdogan might fall below 50%.   Just like the 2017 referendum it was in the urban areas like Istanbul that AKP-MHP lost ground since Nov 2015. 

Well they did throw out HDP ballots. That’s a good explanation.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,067


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2018, 08:41:17 PM »

Worth noting that, in long-term perspective, this really isn't a very good result for Erdogan. This is the lowest total for AKP+MHP since 2002, and by a long shot. I know expectations were that they'd fall below 50%, but the fact that they're barely above it, while back in the days AKP either had an absolute majority on its own or only needed a couple more votes to get it, clearly shows that the country is souring on Erdogan.

Of course, this might not mean sh*t is the transition to dictatorship continues apace...

The result was probably lowered so the government has the justification to go, "See? Why would we hurt our own party?"
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