Turkish snap election, June 2018

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Erdogan has called a new election (both presidential and parliamentary). This premature move may be an attempt to prevent popular new MHP-split, the "Good Party" (yes, that's really how it's translated in English) led by Meral Akşener, from becoming too established. (It seems they won't be able to run in the parliamentary elections).

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I assume AKP will run in an alliance with MHP.  If so as long as İYİ  cannot run I cannot see how AKP-MHP does not get a majority.  Both CHP and HDP have their caps in terms of support.

Has MHP become an Erdogan/AKP puppet by now?

In answer to your question, yes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Alliance_(Turkey)

The big problem for the opposition is whether they can form that precious alliance around Akşener. The Kurds, for example, are traditionally much less inclined to support the opposition than the Islamists. I assume Erdogan has lost much of his fanbase amongst conservative Kurds given that he is no longer the person who promised relative peace, but whether they can find it in their hearts to support somebody with Akşener's history and pedigree is another matter.

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Not the HDP (they're not going to join an alliance with the rest). It's CHP, IYI and some small others (the Islamist Party Felicity, the successor to the long line of banned Islamist parties led by Necmettin Erbakan, the original leader of the Turkish Islamists until Erdogan came along and made it cool; and the Democrats: the successor party to True Path, the centre-right party of PM's Tansu Ciller and Suleyman Demirel, itself the successor to the original Democrats of Adnan Menderes). The left-nationalist Patriotic Party was apparently going to join, but then they were ditched.

Also the Great Union Party (the political arm of the fascistic Grey Wolves organisation) has apparently been accepted as part of the AKP-MHP alliance.

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The big problem for CHP is the huge division in its ranks between progressives and nationalists (which is not the same as the secular-religious division). For the latter, the CHP's brief dalliance with HDP was unforgivable - either motivated hrough doctrinaire Kemalism or simple fear of the hated PKK, which many believe to be intrinsically tied with HDP. For the former, the CHP should be a left-liberal party which would rule out alliances with the right and try to harness the "Gezi spirit" and the various orgs that sprung from it, many of which do not see themselves as particularly Kemalist and are on friendly terms with the HDP's cadre.

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Huge march in Izmir for Ince. Even if Erdogan wins, turkeys opposition is vibrant and flourishing imo.

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I see we're doing the classic atlas practice of panicking from early returns/turnout for this election too

It's raining in Izmir!

PROJECTION:
Erdogan- 56%
Gillespie- 42%
Ince- 1.9%
Clinton- 0.1%

Smh, Ince didn't even visit Wisconsin once.

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AKP-MHP will also certainly have an absolute majority with these numbers. Perfect.

This, but without even a trace of sarcasm.

Didn't know you Stan for the far right Tim.

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Now that I think about it, if AKP-MHP does get a majority, could the opposition at least deprove them of a supermajority?

How much do you need to change the Turkish constitution?

Either referendum or 2/3 in parliament

Wait, so Erdogan could change the constitution just with 50%+1 and a referendum? (That he would probably win). That sucks

Err, he already has done the referendum part?

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AKP-MHP will also certainly have an absolute majority with these numbers. Perfect.

This, but without even a trace of sarcasm.

Didn't know you Stan for the far right Tim.

The MHP is a mere appendage of AKP for the time being. I don't care about the MHP. And the AKP ain't far right.

I don't want to spam the thread too much with political discussion instead of looking at the results, but do you not find it a bit disturbing that Erdogan is using literal Grey Wolf fascists to bolster his support? That's odious stuff.

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Why exactly is Thrace so CHP anyway? It's fairly rural iirc.