Turkish snap election, June 2018
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April 18, 2021, 07:17:03 AM

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  Turkish snap election, June 2018
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Author Topic: Turkish snap election, June 2018  (Read 20485 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #275 on: June 24, 2018, 03:04:37 PM »

Erdogan did say that "we could not reach our target in Parliament."   I assume he means that AKP failed to get to a majority on its own.  Although 293 out of 600 seems pretty close.
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jaichind
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« Reply #276 on: June 24, 2018, 03:06:01 PM »

CHP presidential candidate Ince will make a statement after the election board announces preliminary results, according to Ince's office.
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #277 on: June 24, 2018, 03:19:32 PM »

Erdogan sounds really reconciliatory in his victory speech.  It might be because he is in an official presidential palace in Istanbul and not at a AKP party building.  Erdogan underlines his dedication to completing mega projects, such as Canal Istanbul and domestic car.

It's easy to call for reconciliation when it would be reconciliation on your own terms.
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jaichind
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« Reply #278 on: June 24, 2018, 03:27:03 PM »

It seems AKP-MHP actually improved on their performance in Nov 2015 in Kurdish areas.  The 2017 referendum already saw a large gap between the Yes vote and the Nov 2015 AKP+MHP vote shares.  It seems that carried over into this election.  Just like the Kurdish areas saved Erdogan in the 2017 referendum if the AKP-MHP saw a large swing against it in Kurdish areas then perhaps Erdogan might fall below 50%.   Just like the 2017 referendum it was in the urban areas like Istanbul that AKP-MHP lost ground since Nov 2015. 
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #279 on: June 24, 2018, 03:28:45 PM »

Erdogan sounds really reconciliatory in his victory speech.  It might be because he is in an official presidential palace in Istanbul and not at a AKP party building.  Erdogan underlines his dedication to completing mega projects, such as Canal Istanbul and domestic car.
Lmao, sure, whatever
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The Saint
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« Reply #280 on: June 24, 2018, 04:03:01 PM »

It seems AKP-MHP actually improved on their performance in Nov 2015 in Kurdish areas.  The 2017 referendum already saw a large gap between the Yes vote and the Nov 2015 AKP+MHP vote shares.  It seems that carried over into this election.  Just like the Kurdish areas saved Erdogan in the 2017 referendum if the AKP-MHP saw a large swing against it in Kurdish areas then perhaps Erdogan might fall below 50%.   Just like the 2017 referendum it was in the urban areas like Istanbul that AKP-MHP lost ground since Nov 2015. 

Well they did throw out HDP ballots. That’s a good explanation.
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #281 on: June 24, 2018, 04:48:41 PM »

Worth noting that, in long-term perspective, this really isn't a very good result for Erdogan. This is the lowest total for AKP+MHP since 2002, and by a long shot. I know expectations were that they'd fall below 50%, but the fact that they're barely above it, while back in the days AKP either had an absolute majority on its own or only needed a couple more votes to get it, clearly shows that the country is souring on Erdogan.

Of course, this might not mean sh*t is the transition to dictatorship continues apace...
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jaichind
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« Reply #282 on: June 24, 2018, 05:02:52 PM »

Ince acknowledges that based on unofficial results Erdogan has won but indicated that the election was not a fair election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #283 on: June 24, 2018, 05:06:11 PM »

Worth noting that, in long-term perspective, this really isn't a very good result for Erdogan. This is the lowest total for AKP+MHP since 2002, and by a long shot. I know expectations were that they'd fall below 50%, but the fact that they're barely above it, while back in the days AKP either had an absolute majority on its own or only needed a couple more votes to get it, clearly shows that the country is souring on Erdogan.

Of course, this might not mean sh*t is the transition to dictatorship continues apace...

Well, IYI's sizeable vote share would indicate that the pre-2018 MHP vote was most evenly split between MHP and IYI.  So a 2018 AKP-MHP vote share comparison with its pre-2018 equivalent does not feel like a fair comparison.  Perhaps a 2018 AKP-MHP vote share versus a pre-2018 AKP-(50% of MHP) comparison. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #284 on: June 24, 2018, 05:42:13 PM »

As I pointed out before, this election was held just in time for Erdogan to win.  Turkey 2010-2017 average GDP growth is around 6.5%.  2018-2020 expected GDP growth will be around 4.0% which is a significant slowdown.   And that I suspect is an overestimate as it does not take into account rising interest rates and/or greater inflation. 
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The Saint
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« Reply #285 on: June 24, 2018, 08:41:17 PM »

Worth noting that, in long-term perspective, this really isn't a very good result for Erdogan. This is the lowest total for AKP+MHP since 2002, and by a long shot. I know expectations were that they'd fall below 50%, but the fact that they're barely above it, while back in the days AKP either had an absolute majority on its own or only needed a couple more votes to get it, clearly shows that the country is souring on Erdogan.

Of course, this might not mean sh*t is the transition to dictatorship continues apace...

The result was probably lowered so the government has the justification to go, "See? Why would we hurt our own party?"
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yadda yadda
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« Reply #286 on: June 25, 2018, 03:56:41 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2018, 03:17:42 PM by Hash »

Two thirds of the German Turks voted for the sultan.
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sirius3100
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« Reply #287 on: June 25, 2018, 05:15:56 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2018, 05:44:55 AM by sirius3100 »

Two thirds of the German Turks voted for the sultan.
Only about 50% of the people in Germany with Turkish Origin are eligible to vote. And only 50% of those actually voted at all.

So I would guess that most of them either don't care what happens in Turkey, or think that they shouldn't influence it. Maybe because they identify themselves as German.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #288 on: June 25, 2018, 06:04:26 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2018, 08:30:15 AM by DavidB. »

So I would guess that most of them either don't care what happens in Turkey, or think that they shouldn't influence it. Maybe because they identify themselves as German.
Lmao, typical leftist European apologism for indefensible behavior by immigrants. 25% of German Turks are still hundreds of thousands of people.

I agree with Hades: Erdogan voters in the Netherlands should just hand in their Dutch passports and leave. Why do they want to be here if this country is so bad (Erdogan called us Nazis and fascists) and Turkey so good?
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« Reply #289 on: June 25, 2018, 07:00:36 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2018, 07:16:19 AM by Ἅιδης »

So I would guess that most of them either don't care what happens in Turkey, or think that they shouldn't influence it. Maybe because they identify themselves as German.
Lmao, typical leftist European apologism for indefensible behavior by immigrants. 25% of German Turks are still hundreds of thousands of people.

I agree with Hades: Erdogan voters in the Netherlands should just hand in their Dutch passports and leave. Why do they want to be here if this country is so bad and Turkey so good?

Thank you for pointing that out; 462,000 German Turks voted for that despot. All of them are Turks deep in their hearts. They have nothing in common with German/European values; they just want to live here because of the well-paid jobs, because of the sumptuous social welfare money, because of the indulgent justice and because of the freedom of speech and press, which doesn't exist in their real home country.
And even most of the German Turks who don't own the Turkish passport don't want to integrate themselves into society as hate Germany and its liberal values. 😡

Even Green politician Cem Özdemir blasted the "German" Erdogan supporters, saying they don't only hail a despot, they also express their opprobrium of liberal, western values.
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yadda yadda
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« Reply #290 on: June 25, 2018, 07:08:13 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2018, 07:34:25 AM by Ἅιδης »

Two thirds of the German Turks voted for the sultan.
Only about 50% of the people in Germany with Turkish Origin are eligible to vote. And only 50% of those actually voted at all.

So I would guess that most of them either don't care what happens in Turkey, or think that they shouldn't influence it. Maybe because they identify themselves as German.

Most German Turks without a Turkish passport are Turkish deep in their hearts.
May I remind you of Özil and Gündogan, neither of both are Turkish citizens?



Some weeks ago, Sultan Erdogan appealed to his foreign subjects to convert their foreign exchange into Turkish lira, as the fragile and flagging Turkish economy has been declining for a long time, resulting in cash-strapped revenues.
Surprisingly, the two "distance patriots" didn't comply with their Führer's request to pull the country out of recession. Patriotism and love to their Turkish home country obviously end when it comes to money. 😂
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jaichind
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« Reply #291 on: June 25, 2018, 07:17:30 AM »

It seems that the vote for Parliamentary is larger than the vote fore President.  Around 3% of the Parliamentary vote failed to vote for a Presidential candidate.

A superficial analysis of the results by province seems to indicate that
a) Most of this shortfall is MHP Parliamentary voters failing to vote for Erdoğan
b) Erdoğan seems to have over-performed AKP-MHP in Kurdish areas
c) In Armenian/Azerbaijanis heavy Iğdır Province Erdoğan way under-performed AKP-MHP

Net of all this AKP-MHP vote share ended being 53.67% while Erdoğan vote share ended up being 52.38%.  The Erdoğan over-performance in Kurdish areas seems to have closed some of the near 3% gap between Erdoğan and AKP-MHP due to some MHP non-vote for Erdoğan.

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sirius3100
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« Reply #292 on: June 25, 2018, 08:23:33 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2018, 09:28:39 AM by sirius3100 »

So I would guess that most of them either don't care what happens in Turkey, or think that they shouldn't influence it. Maybe because they identify themselves as German.
Lmao, typical leftist European apologism for indefensible behavior by immigrants. 25% of German Turks are still hundreds of thousands of people.
I just wanted to point out that 16,7% isn't the same as 66,7%. We do know that a minimum of 16,7% of Turks in Germany support Erdogan and it may be up to 93,3%.
It's most likely that between ~1/6 and ~1/3 of the Turkish population in Germany support Erdogan/AKP (I see no reason why a Erdogan fan should stay at home instead of voting, and also no reason why people with Turkish background but no passport should be more likely to vote for Erdogan than actual Turkish citizens).

And I'd even agree with the assessment that those supporting Erdogan should really consider if Germany is the right country for them. And also agree that it is a huge problem when hundreds of thousands of people living here do not share our values.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #293 on: June 25, 2018, 06:41:51 PM »

Local maps I made.







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(CT) The Free North
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« Reply #294 on: June 25, 2018, 08:17:52 PM »

Humanity lost.
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #295 on: June 26, 2018, 04:52:59 AM »

So I would guess that most of them either don't care what happens in Turkey, or think that they shouldn't influence it. Maybe because they identify themselves as German.
Lmao, typical leftist European apologism for indefensible behavior by immigrants. 25% of German Turks are still hundreds of thousands of people.

I agree with Hades: Erdogan voters in the Netherlands should just hand in their Dutch passports and leave. Why do they want to be here if this country is so bad (Erdogan called us Nazis and fascists) and Turkey so good?

Yeah, those big bad Turks are so unforgivable for supporting Erdogan. Now tell me again how Orban is the lesser evil or whatever bullsh*t rationalization you used to excuse his acting exactly like Erdogan.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #296 on: June 26, 2018, 05:32:02 AM »

Wil MHP be invited to join the guvernment now since AKP lost its majority and since the were allied in the elections?
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #297 on: June 26, 2018, 05:37:22 AM »

Why exactly is Thrace so CHP anyway? It's fairly rural iirc.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #298 on: June 26, 2018, 06:26:05 AM »

Yeah, those big bad Turks are so unforgivable for supporting Erdogan. Now tell me again how Orban is the lesser evil or whatever bullsh*t rationalization you used to excuse his acting exactly like Erdogan.
Surely you see that in my view, the survival of Europe as we know it depends on maintaining our identities and on maintaining native majorities in our countries.

Hungary is the main EU member state pushing for an end to mass immigration and calling for renewed appreciation for our national heritage. Turkey, on the other hand, is a non-European country with a regime fundamentally hostile to European civilization, as it is Islamist (and therefore expansive) in nature. Ankara actively incites its diaspora to side with Turkey and not with the countries they immigrated to.

Put differently, a Hungarian in the Netherlands voting for Orbán does a great service to the Dutch people, as a vote for Hungary to maintain its identity is also a vote for the Netherlands to maintain its identity. Meanwhile, a Turk in the Netherlands voting for AK does a great disservice to the Dutch people, as the Turkish regime is hostile to the Dutch people, to the Netherlands, and to European civilization.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #299 on: June 26, 2018, 06:28:39 AM »

Why exactly is Thrace so CHP anyway? It's fairly rural iirc.

Main divisions in Turkish electoral politics aren't urban/rural (that's a comforting myth put out by urban middle class opponents of the regime and recycled in the international press without checking) but cultural. Areas that saw significant population exchanges/ethnic cleansing/resettlement during the transition from Empire to Republic are usually very loyal to the CHP or at least have large numbers of people who are; areas with more settled populations now vote solidly AKP. And people from the latter take their voting habits to them when/if they move to the cities: this is why the AKP is dominant in the Istanbul slums.
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