Turkish snap election, June 2018

[swf541]

All hail Neo-Ottomanism and the restoration of Sultan Erdogan!

At its zenith, the Ottoman Empire was a bastion of technological innovation and (relative) amounts of religious and cultural tolerance.

I know the point you're trying to make, but I just had to.....

The Ottoman Empire was never a bastion of technological innovation, as for their religious "tolerance", Christians and Jews was second class citizens, there was attempted forced conversion of non-Sunni Muslims and Yazidi's was often attecked slaughtered, enslaved and forced converted by the Ottomans.

There was nothing positive about the Ottoman Empire, it only functioned through continued raiding and plundering, and when further expansion became impossible, they turned the looting inward. In the 17th century a period where the Ottoman Balkans was at peace, it saw a fall in population greater than Germany's under the 30 Year War.

There's a reason that people in the Balkans who was under Austrian rule have some nostalgia toward the Habsburg, while only the Bosniaks have any positive view of the Ottoman, even the Albanians a mostly Muslim people celebrate a Catholic prince who fought the Ottomans as their national hero.

Yep and lets not forget the Armenian, Greek and Assyrian Genocides, the persecution of the Alawites as well etc

[BBD]

https://ahvalnews.com/2018-elections/turkish-electoral-authorities-remove-key-vote-security-measure

YSK permits unstamped ballots just days before the first round of elections.

[jaichind]

https://ahvalnews.com/2018-elections/turkish-electoral-authorities-remove-key-vote-security-measure

YSK permits unstamped ballots just days before the first round of elections.

I think they did that for the 2017 referendum vote as well.

[DavidB.]

Turnout in the Netherlands at 121k, slightly higher than the 116k in the referendum last year and higher than ever. Will be somewhere around 50%.

[jaichind]

Another thing that is different about this year's election is that Erdogan has rewritten the rules to allow authorities to appoint government officials to run polling stations or relocate them on security grounds and  let law-enforcement officials monitor voting.  This plus the counting of unverified, unstamped ballots from 2017 gives  Erdogan an extra advantage at the vote casting and counting level.   Erdogan said those changes are necessary to secure the vote in Turkey’s southeast from the influence of Kurdish separatists.

[ingemann]

Another thing that is different about this year's election is that Erdogan has rewritten the rules to allow authorities to appoint government officials to run polling stations or relocate them on security grounds and  let law-enforcement officials monitor voting.  This plus the counting of unverified, unstamped ballots from 2017 gives  Erdogan an extra advantage at the vote casting and counting level.   Erdogan said those changes are necessary to secure the vote in Turkey’s southeast from the influence of Kurdish separatists.

It will be pretty interesting to see his vote in the region with thse thing. I suspect that even Erdogan isn't shameless enough to that Turkish Kurdistan will deliver a majority to him. Because in my experience the Kurds I deal with daily have gone from being neutral to positive toward him to hating him with the fury of a thousand suns.

[Oryxslayer]

Final turnout:

Austria: 51.8%
Germany: 49.7%
Switzerland: 56.7%
Worldwide: 48.8%

In the 2017 referendum, final turnout was 50.6% in Austria, 48.7% in Germany, 57.1% in Switzerland and 47.9% worldwide.

So, no big changes.

Turnout in the Netherlands at 121k, slightly higher than the 116k in the referendum last year and higher than ever. Will be somewhere around 50%.

So I guess the Erdogan domination narrative is back on the menu? There would have to be a big divide between the national vote and the vote from abroad to mean he doesn't lose. On the other hand, Erdogan ended up winning the referendum by not that much, losing Istanbul and Ankara which the AKP won hand over fist in 2015, so perhaps it points to a close-ish AKP win.

[jaichind]

It will be pretty interesting to see his vote in the region with thse thing. I suspect that even Erdogan isn't shameless enough to that Turkish Kurdistan will deliver a majority to him. Because in my experience the Kurds I deal with daily have gone from being neutral to positive toward him to hating him with the fury of a thousand suns.

I think AKP is mostly written off the Kurdish vote, especially with MHP as an ally.  AKP can still get to a majority even if HDP sweeps all the Kurdish region seats but it will depend on a bunch of things going right for AKP-MHP.  Of course there is an outside chance that HDP falls below 10% and then AKP will sweep all the Kurdish region seats.

[BBD]

Apparently the Anadolu Agency "inadvertently" released a "mock" broadcast of election results that showed Erdogan winning the first round with around 52% of the vote. They're now planning to sue all those that dare point out their impropriety.

It sure is interesting to ponder why and how such a mistake would occur, 2 days before election day...

[Tender Branson]

Apparently the Anadolu Agency "inadvertently" released a "mock" broadcast of election results that showed Erdogan winning the first round with around 52% of the vote. They're now planning to sue all those that dare point out their impropriety.

It sure is interesting to ponder why and how such a mistake would occur, 2 days before election day...

I have seen the exact same "test results" thing on AP election results pages for the US as well a few days before an election.

Nothing strange, except if it happens in countries with weak & bullied election commissions such as in Turkey ...

[Sir Mohamed]

Final turnout:

Austria: 51.8%
Germany: 49.7%
Switzerland: 56.7%
Worldwide: 48.8%

In the 2017 referendum, final turnout was 50.6% in Austria, 48.7% in Germany, 57.1% in Switzerland and 47.9% worldwide.

So, no big changes.

Isn't this a good sign? As far as I know, the Turks from overseas "saved" Erdogan the last time?

[Tender Branson]

This election is probably the best supervised so far in Turkey - by the opposition:

http://orf.at/stories/2444081/2444080

The CHP plans to send 2 of their election observers to each of the 180.000 voting booths, 360.000 in total.

The Kurdish HDP plans to deploy 110.000 of their election observers and the IYI-party 130.000.

An NGO will deploy another 40.000 poll watchers.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Huge march in Izmir for Ince. Even if Erdogan wins, turkeys opposition is vibrant and flourishing imo.

[TheSaint250]

Would HDP join the government or enter a confidence-and-supply deal with the Nation Alliance if the AKP and MHP were denied a majority?

[jaichind]

The TRY implied vol reaches the highest levels since 2008 which means the market expects Erdogan to win on the first round but if he does not the the chances of Erdogan losing is much higher than what the market currently expects.  So the market expected distribution of outcomes is bimodel ergo a very high TRY implied vol.

[parochial boy]

Huge march in Izmir for Ince. Even if Erdogan wins, turkeys opposition is vibrant and flourishing imo.

Izmir is kind of home turf for the CHP / the opposition though isn't it?

Which makes me think, was the Justice march last summer perhaps a good indicator of what we, might, be seeing this weekend? As in opponents marching through what you might have thought of as Erdogan's heartland.

[Oryxslayer]

Huge march in Izmir for Ince. Even if Erdogan wins, turkeys opposition is vibrant and flourishing imo.

Izmir is kind of home turf for the CHP / the opposition though isn't it?

Which makes me think, was the Justice march last summer perhaps a good indicator of what we, might, be seeing this weekend? As in opponents marching through what you might have thought of as Erdogan's heartland.

Well, it the results do end up being close, then traditionally pro-Erdogan area will go opposition. I recall from the referendum watching as the the more pro-opposition ballots arrived late (either because city centers, or the Expat vote is counted first - I don't know which) watching first Istanbul, then Ankara flip from Yes to No. A close race probably entails both of these areas going for the opposition, despite being traditional Erdogan areas - especially Istanbul.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

While it's definitely possible that the polarizing Erdogan already wins in round 1, I predict that he'll have to deal with a runoff this time, because Akşener is attracting enough conservative/nationalist votes from his voter pool to keep him below 50%.

46% Erdoğan => runoff
30% İnce => runoff
12% Akşener
10% Demirtaş
  2% Others

Turnout: 80%

Parliament:

41% AKP
28% CHP
11% HDP
11% IYI
  7% MHP
  2% Others

48% AKP-MHP alliance
50% CHP-HDP-IYI opposition

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1010480256325734400

Its pretty clear this poll was designed to push a narrative, but it is surprising if the numbers end up close to true.

[Tender Branson]

HUGE crowds turning out for Ince's final campaign events in Istanbul, Izmir & Ankara:

(... looking good. But as we all know, huge crowd sizes often do not indicate a win. Just ask Presidents Bernie Sanders or Norbert Hofer.)

[America Needs R'hllor]

My feeling is eerily similar to before the last Israeli election, when we though there was hope and Bibi won decisively. I hope it won't be the same here- if Erdogan is somehow defeated in the end, it'll be an amazing day.

[Oryxslayer]

My feeling is eerily similar to before the last Israeli election, when we though there was hope and Bibi won decisively. I hope it won't be the same here- if Erdogan is somehow defeated in the end, it'll be an amazing day.

On the other hand its almost like seeing Malaysia 2018 on repeat - at least pre-election. All the ground hope and 'gut knowledge' seemed to be with the opposition, but practical statistics pointed to a close BN win. The main difference I feel is the Erdogan has many more authoritarian tools at his disposal then Najib did, so its even easier to see him winning.

[ON Progressive]

What time in Turkey do the polls close, so I know when to wake up to watch results roll in?

[Oryxslayer]

What time in Turkey do the polls close, so I know when to wake up to watch results roll in?

8 am to 5 pm Turkish Time, results expected to start coming in around 9 pm - 3 pm est. Found in NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/23/world/asia/turkey-elections.html

[TheSaint250]

While there is unfortunately hardly a chance Erdogan loses, I hope the AKP and MHP lose the majority.