Turkish snap election, June 2018

[jaichind]

We are now close to the point where Erdogan only needs 10% of the remaining votes and he's definitely over 50%.

Ince tweets that only 37% of the vote is counted according to the official electoral board and want his people to stay. We are entering a confusing area as the opposition has every motive to make the elections appear dishonest, but Erdogan has every reason to win and the tools to fudge the numbers.

That doesn't make any sense, because 45 million out of 52 million expected votes are already counted.

Well, if what we are seeing on media sites are non-official results this could be true.  But if true and with the number of votes already record on media sites then the level of fraud is truly massive and unlikely.  Meaning if that is what it took to win then just cancel the election and announce Erdogan President for life.

[palandio]

[...]
It seems SP's alliance with CHP-IYI did not help since at 1.4% they were not able to qualify in any seats anywhere, even in Istanbul.  So we can view 1.4% of the 33.3% of CHP-IYI-SP as wasted.
[...]

Looking at the preliminary seat distributions in each province they only make sense when applying d'Hondt to the alliances and not to the single parties. Therefore the 1.4% of SP still count for CHP and IYI.

I'm surprised about this myself because before the election I already wondered about this, but wasn't able to retrieve any confirmation and therefore assumed that d'Hondt would not be applied to the alliances as a whole.

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 94.4% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 53.1%

With 90.1% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    54.2%  
CHP-IYI-SP 33.8%
HDP           10.8%

[jaichind]

[...]
It seems SP's alliance with CHP-IYI did not help since at 1.4% they were not able to qualify in any seats anywhere, even in Istanbul.  So we can view 1.4% of the 33.3% of CHP-IYI-SP as wasted.
[...]

Looking at the preliminary seat distributions in each province they only make sense when applying d'Hondt to the alliances and not to the single parties. Therefore the 1.4% of SP still count for CHP and IYI.

I'm surprised about this myself because before the election I already wondered about this, but wasn't able to retrieve any confirmation and therefore assumed that d'Hondt would not be applied to the alliances as a whole.

How interesting.  I was going to check that eventually.  But if so then how does CHP IYI and SP (and for that matter AKP and MHP) work out which party list gets which seats?  Unless there is some registered contract on the allocation method which is also handed over to the election commission.  Sounds very complex.

Of course if true then it works to the advantage of both alliances at the cost of HDP.

[jaichind]

State-run Anadolu Agency calls the election for Erdogan

[jaichind]

AKP spokesperson says turnout was 87%.

[jaichind]

CHP says data still incomplete from large cities so it is wrong to call the election.

[jaichind]

TRY most likely will fall now that Erdogan has won on the first round.  Erdogan promised lower interest rates and that would mean only one thing for inflation and TRY.

[Former President tack50]

My guess is that the alliances are tallied up and the seats allocated to each alliance through D'Hondt. Then inside each alliance the seats corresponding to each alliance are allocated again through D'Hondt according to the proportion of votes each party got inside the alliance.

So for example, in Istanbul's 1st district:

AKP+MHP: 49.6% (17)
CHP+IYI+SP: 38.8 (14)
HDP (4)

Then inside Erdogan's coalition:

AKP: 41.4% (15)
MHP: 8,2% (2)

And inside the CHP coalition:

CHP: 29% (11)
IYI: 8,2% (3)
SP: 1,6% (0)

So votes for SP aren't wasted, but instead give more seats if necessary to that alliance.

It seems to me that it would benefit alliances (so HDP loses as you say) and inside each alliance benefits large parties.

IMO it's a very elegant system. Though this is only a guess.

[Antonio the Sixth]

[...]
It seems SP's alliance with CHP-IYI did not help since at 1.4% they were not able to qualify in any seats anywhere, even in Istanbul.  So we can view 1.4% of the 33.3% of CHP-IYI-SP as wasted.
[...]

Looking at the preliminary seat distributions in each province they only make sense when applying d'Hondt to the alliances and not to the single parties. Therefore the 1.4% of SP still count for CHP and IYI.

I'm surprised about this myself because before the election I already wondered about this, but wasn't able to retrieve any confirmation and therefore assumed that d'Hondt would not be applied to the alliances as a whole.

How interesting.  I was going to check that eventually.  But if so then how does CHP IYI and SP (and for that matter AKP and MHP) work out which party list gets which seats?  Unless there is some registered contract on the allocation method which is also handed over to the election commission.  Sounds very complex.

Of course if true then it works to the advantage of both alliances at the cost of HDP.

It's not that complicated. Italy has used systems like that in the past. Basically, there's a first division of seats between alliances, and then each alliance's seats are again apportioned among its constituent parties using the same formula.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's an interesting thing...nowhere on yenisafak.com does it give a statistical breakdown of the votes, just the percentages. Easier to hide the numbers that you fudged if done correctly.

[jaichind]

Here's an interesting thing...nowhere on yenisafak.com does it give a statistical breakdown of the votes, just the percentages. Easier to hide the numbers that you fudged if done correctly.

Well it does give total votes so they expect the user to do the math (using %) to calculate the total vote for each party or candidate.

[jaichind]

[...]
It seems SP's alliance with CHP-IYI did not help since at 1.4% they were not able to qualify in any seats anywhere, even in Istanbul.  So we can view 1.4% of the 33.3% of CHP-IYI-SP as wasted.
[...]

Looking at the preliminary seat distributions in each province they only make sense when applying d'Hondt to the alliances and not to the single parties. Therefore the 1.4% of SP still count for CHP and IYI.

I'm surprised about this myself because before the election I already wondered about this, but wasn't able to retrieve any confirmation and therefore assumed that d'Hondt would not be applied to the alliances as a whole.

How interesting.  I was going to check that eventually.  But if so then how does CHP IYI and SP (and for that matter AKP and MHP) work out which party list gets which seats?  Unless there is some registered contract on the allocation method which is also handed over to the election commission.  Sounds very complex.

Of course if true then it works to the advantage of both alliances at the cost of HDP.

It's not that complicated. Italy has used systems like that in the past. Basically, there's a first division of seats between alliances, and then each alliance's seats are again apportioned among its constituent parties using the same formula.

Good point.  If it is the way tack50 describes it then it sounds a lot like the Italian system.

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 96.8% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 52.8%

With 93.3% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    53.9% 
CHP-IYI-SP 34.0%
HDP           11.0%

[TheSaint250]

Official government seat projection puts AKP-MHP at 308 seats, 7 above the majority:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1010963921002475520

[jaichind]

CHP's Tezcan insist the Prez election is going to the second round.  Main problem I have with his narrative is the Parliamentary vote share seems to match the Prez results.  So for the fraud he claims to have taken place it would have also taken place for the Parliamentary ballots as well. The scale and effort to pull this off and be consistent is very large.    

[jaichind]

Official government seat projection puts AKP-MHP at 308 seats, 7 above the majority:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1010963921002475520

Other media outlets has AKP-MHP at 342 seats
https://www.yenisafak.com/secim-2018/ittifak-secim-sonuclari

CNN Turk has AKP-MHP at 344.

[TheSaint250]

Official government seat projection puts AKP-MHP at 308 seats, 7 above the majority:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1010963921002475520

Other media outlets has AKP-MHP at 342 seats
https://www.yenisafak.com/secim-2018/ittifak-secim-sonuclari

CNN Turk has AKP-MHP at 344.

Turns out Europe Elects messed it up. AKP should've been at 295.

[America Needs R'hllor]

AKP-MHP will also certainly have an absolute majority with these numbers. Perfect.

This, but without even a trace of sarcasm.

Didn't know you Stan for the far right Tim.

The MHP is a mere appendage of AKP for the time being. I don't care about the MHP. And the AKP ain't far right.

No one cares about their ideology. What you're saying here is that you oppose Turkish democracy and freedom. That's revolting. There are REAL people there, people whose freedoms will be harmed by this disaster, some of them I know. I'm disgusted someone would cheer for this because he's pro Islam or whatever.

[jaichind]

Tunceli seems to have large scale tactical voting

Prez
İnce         58.1%
Demirtaş  21.0%
Erdoğan   18.8%
Akşener     1.8%

Parliamentary
HDP             51.1%
CHP+IYI+SP 28.3%
AKP-MHP      19.3%

It seems a large bloc of HDP voters voted tactically for Ince.  Not sure why there is a need as Ince was not expected to win on the first round so there will always be a chance to vote for Ince in the second round if Erdoğan does not win on first round.

[RogueBeaver]

Erdogan declares victory in both presidential and parliamentary votes.

[jaichind]

Erdogan sounds really reconciliatory in his victory speech.  It might be because he is in an official presidential palace in Istanbul and not at a AKP party building.  Erdogan underlines his dedication to completing mega projects, such as Canal Istanbul and domestic car.

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 98.4% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 52.7%

With 95.5% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    53.7% 
CHP-IYI-SP 34.1%
HDP           11.2%

[pilskonzept]

Tunceli seems to have large scale tactical voting

Yes. Alevis - HDP/CHP swing voters who strongly distrust the AKP.

It seems a large bloc of HDP voters voted tactically for Ince.

Not really outside of Tunceli (Alevis) and Istanbul (secular voters). In the southeastern Kurdish heartland, Ince got exactly as far as the CHP, i.e. nowhere.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 98.4% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 52.7%

With 95.5% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    53.7% 
CHP-IYI-SP 34.1%
HDP           11.2%

Should note that this is not the vote but ballot box's. As with precincts, not all ballot boxes are created equal.