Turkish snap election, June 2018

[Oryxslayer]

HDP at 8.3% parliamentary. Fortunately for them, the Kurdish regions are under-reporting, and they can expect to climb towards 10%.

[jaichind]

It seems that AKP-MHP is in a strong position to win a majority.  As long as AKP-MHP tracks Erdogan in terms of vote and there are signs that AKP-MHP might be outperforming Erdogan, AKP-MHP should win a majority of seats due to various threshold effects in areas where the seats per district are smaller.  And there is an outside chance that HDP does not cross 10%.

[Tender Branson]

At least until 41%, it doesn't seem as if the opposition is picking up any ground against Erdogan:

Erdogan's support still drops by 0.1% with every new percent counted.

End result: 51.2%

[jaichind]

At least until 41%, it doesn't seem as if the opposition is picking up any ground against Erdogan:

Erdogan's support still drops by 0.1% with every new percent counted.

End result: 51.2%

Well, the 2017 referendum pattern had the anti-Erdogan vote really picking up around 60% of the vote counted. So lets see ..

[Oryxslayer]

CHP has announced that they are expecting to make the runoff.

[parochial boy]

CHP has announced that they are expecting to make the runoff.

They reckon 45% - 41%, that... seems like wishful thinking

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 45.2% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 56.9%

With 26.6% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    60.9%  
CHP-IYI-SP 28.8%
HDP            8.6%

[Former President tack50]

Now that I think about it, if AKP-MHP does get a majority, could the opposition at least deprove them of a supermajority?

How much do you need to change the Turkish constitution?

[Tender Branson]

At least until 41%, it doesn't seem as if the opposition is picking up any ground against Erdogan:

Erdogan's support still drops by 0.1% with every new percent counted.

End result: 51.2%

Well, the 2017 referendum pattern had the anti-Erdogan vote really picking up around 60% of the vote counted. So lets see ..

If the CHP/Ince strongholds are really coming in late, who knows ?

But right now, there's a really uniform pattern.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

AKP-MHP will also certainly have an absolute majority with these numbers. Perfect.

This, but without even a trace of sarcasm.

Didn't know you Stan for the far right Tim.

The MHP is a mere appendage of AKP for the time being. I don't care about the MHP. And the AKP ain't far right.

But what about Erdogan is worth defending?

I grant that Erdogan is not without flaws, and has gone downhill in the past 5 years or so. However:
1) I think that his flaws are exaggerated by international media
2) I think he is a good economic manager
3) I think his brand of political Islam is a bulwark against some much more terrible versions - by preventing its more moderate varieties from being expressed, one only encourages much worse ones. Erdogan's version of political Islam is right in line with Turkey.
4) I think the opposition either would be unlikely to run the country well, or would bring weak governance, or both
5) I think the opposition does not have enough good ideas

Erdogan has been doing a pretty good job over the past decade and a half, and I think Turks continue to appreciate that.

[jaichind]

CHP has announced that they are expecting to make the runoff.

They reckon 45% - 41%, that... seems like wishful thinking

Not likely.  Although if Izmir could come in very heavy for CHP there is a chance of forcing a second round.

[Aboa]

Now that I think about it, if AKP-MHP does get a majority, could the opposition at least deprove them of a supermajority?

How much do you need to change the Turkish constitution?

Either referendum or 2/3 in parliament

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 51.2% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 56.5%

With 33.9% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    59.7%  
CHP-IYI-SP 29.7%
HDP            8.9%

[jaichind]

So for the Prez race waiting on the next big vote dump from Izmir and Adyin.  If they cannot be big for CHP then Erdogan will cross 50% for sure.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is really not looking good.

[Former President tack50]

Now that I think about it, if AKP-MHP does get a majority, could the opposition at least deprove them of a supermajority?

How much do you need to change the Turkish constitution?

Either referendum or 2/3 in parliament

Wait, so Erdogan could change the constitution just with 50%+1 and a referendum? (That he would probably win). That sucks

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 54.2% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 56.4%

With 37.6% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    59.2%  
CHP-IYI-SP 30.1%
HDP            9.1%

Looks like AKP-MHP majority is unavoidable even if HDP crosses 10%.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Now that I think about it, if AKP-MHP does get a majority, could the opposition at least deprove them of a supermajority?

How much do you need to change the Turkish constitution?

Either referendum or 2/3 in parliament

Wait, so Erdogan could change the constitution just with 50%+1 and a referendum? (That he would probably win). That sucks

Err, he already has done the referendum part?

[jaichind]

Istanbul over 70% in and  Erdogan still above 50%.  This is pretty surprising ...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

AKP-MHP will also certainly have an absolute majority with these numbers. Perfect.

This, but without even a trace of sarcasm.

Didn't know you Stan for the far right Tim.

The MHP is a mere appendage of AKP for the time being. I don't care about the MHP. And the AKP ain't far right.

I don't want to spam the thread too much with political discussion instead of looking at the results, but do you not find it a bit disturbing that Erdogan is using literal Grey Wolf fascists to bolster his support? That's odious stuff.

[parochial boy]

Apparently there is a bit of a difference between what is being reported and what the observers are seeing - certainly seems like the coastal and Kurdish areas are lagging way behind in what is reported. Don't lose hope yet guys

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1010925642186182657?s=21

[Tender Branson]

Well, now would be a really good time for some really strong remaining Ince/CHP areas to report.

If not, there's no fu**ing chance left that Erdogan drops below 50% ...

Conclusions: Either Erdogan is really personally this popular, or there are some really good hackers from the AKP in the Central Election Commission that are clinically manipulating the votes to 51-52% for him, as the votes come in from each precinct.

[DavidB.]

Are votes from abroad already taken into account?

[Tender Branson]

Are votes from abroad already taken into account?

Yes.