Turkish snap election, June 2018

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I see we're doing the classic atlas practice of panicking from early returns/turnout for this election too

It's raining in Izmir!

PROJECTION:
Erdogan- 56%
Gillespie- 42%
Ince- 1.9%
Clinton- 0.1%

Smh, Ince didn't even visit Wisconsin once.

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 28.3% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 58.3%

With 11.1% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    65.4%  
CHP-IYI-SP 25.1%
HDP            7.2%.

[Tender Branson]

Currently, Erdogan's support drops by 0.1% with every new percent that is counted.

Currently at 58.3% and 27% counted, it would mean he ends up with -7.3%, or 51% at 100%.

[Former President tack50]

What's worrying is that Erdogan is clearly ahead even in Istanbul and Ankara at this point. And there's also 25% counted already.

He's going to be ahead in most places, because the opposition vote is split in the first round. What matters if he's going to get over 50% of the vote.

Still worrying though, Erdogan is at 57.9% in Ankara and at 54% in Istanbul. He probably has to go below 50% in both to go to a 2nd round, particularly Istanbul

[jaichind]

What's worrying is that Erdogan is clearly ahead even in Istanbul and Ankara at this point. And there's also 25% counted already.

He's going to be ahead in most places, because the opposition vote is split in the first round. What matters if he's going to get over 50% of the vote.

Still worrying though, Erdogan is at 57.9% in Ankara and at 54% in Istanbul. He probably has to go below 50% in both to go to a 2nd round, particularly Istanbul

Well, if Erdogan can cross 50% in urban centers then for sure he crosses 50% overall.

[Oryxslayer]

Nice graph of AKP support over time during the counts.

[Tender Branson]

I think at this point we can say that Erdogan will remain in office.

Even if he ends up with 49.8% or something, it is highly unlikely that the opposition is as disciplined and their voters will all end up backing Ince in the runoff.

Has any candidate who received 49.5% in a 1st round ever lost a runoff somewhere ?

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 31.4% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 58.0%

With 12.5% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    64.7% 
CHP-IYI-SP 25.6%
HDP            7.4%.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I think at this point we can say that Erdogan will remain in office.

Even if he ends up with 49.8% or something, it is highly unlikely that the opposition is as disciplined and their voters will all end up backing Ince in the runoff.

Has any candidate who received 49.5% in a 1st round ever lost a runoff somewhere ?

Yeah it's not looking very good in both the Presidential and the Parliamentary reuslts. Still, we need to watch and see.

[jaichind]

IT seems that in deep Kurish areas Erdogan has low 30s to low 40s support.  Wow.. I guess political Islam in Kurdish area still have legs despite of everything else.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nice graph of AKP support over time during the counts.

Based on these numbers, it looks like he'll be over 50 easily.

[Tender Branson]

This election count so far almost mirrors the one in Hungary recently ...

Erdogan, like Orban/Fidesz, mop the floor in the rural areas by huge margins - but do better than expected in the urban areas.

In Istanbul, there's almost half the vote counted and Erdogan is still at 53% there and 20% ahead of Ince.

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 33.5% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 57.7%

With 14.9% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    63.6%  
CHP-IYI-SP 26.4%
HDP            7.8%

HDP looking somewhat better now to get to 10%.  Key is how HDP vote holds up in Istanbul.

[jaichind]

Nice graph of AKP support over time during the counts.

Based on these numbers, it looks like he'll be over 50 easily.

Actually these patterns when calibrated against the 2017 referendum results is still fairly negative for Erdogan.  The opposition has to hope that the counts within urban centers has the same counting bias as 2017.   

[Antonio the Sixth]

AKP-MHP will also certainly have an absolute majority with these numbers. Perfect.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

AKP-MHP will also certainly have an absolute majority with these numbers. Perfect.

This, but without even a trace of sarcasm.

[Tender Branson]

7/124 precincts in Austria counted:

Erdogan wins 73.2%.

That's down a bit from 2014, when he received 80.2% here (one of the highest results on the planet).

[Oryxslayer]

From The Guardian:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

AKP-MHP will also certainly have an absolute majority with these numbers. Perfect.

This, but without even a trace of sarcasm.

Didn't know you Stan for the far right Tim.

[Tender Branson]

From The Guardian:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

OK ... but there would have to be a significant uptick in votes coming from Ince-areas soon. Especially in the urban areas. I don't see that yet.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

AKP-MHP will also certainly have an absolute majority with these numbers. Perfect.

This, but without even a trace of sarcasm.

Didn't know you Stan for the far right Tim.

The MHP is a mere appendage of AKP for the time being. I don't care about the MHP. And the AKP ain't far right.

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 37.7% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 57.3%

With 18.4% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    62.5%  
CHP-IYI-SP 27.3%
HDP            8.1%

[parochial boy]

On the plus side, AKP are now below 50% in the parliamentary election, and HDP are climbing towards the threshold

AKP-MHP will also certainly have an absolute majority with these numbers. Perfect.

This, but without even a trace of sarcasm.

Didn't know you Stan for the far right Tim.

The MHP is a mere appendage of AKP for the time being. I don't care about the MHP. And the AKP ain't far right.

But what about Erdogan is worth defending?

[ON Progressive]

On the plus side, AKP are now below 50% in the parliamentary election, and HDP are climbing towards the threshold

And that's with a ton of ballot boxes out in the HDP districts (only 14% of boxes opened in Van, 15% in Hakkari)

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 40.7% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 57.1%

With 21.4% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    61.7%  
CHP-IYI-SP 28.0%
HDP            8.4%