Toomey wins GOP primary...PA Senate 2004 (user search)
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  Toomey wins GOP primary...PA Senate 2004 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Who WINS?
#1
Toomey (R)
 
#2
Hoeffel (D)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 32

Author Topic: Toomey wins GOP primary...PA Senate 2004  (Read 7438 times)
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

« on: September 22, 2005, 08:50:38 PM »

Clymer ran because he saw Specter as no better than Hoeffel. He wouldn't have run. Hoeffel was also a comparatively weak candidate, even in an open seat race, and it is doubtful whether he'd be able to come up with the extra 8%+ he'd need to win this one.

VOTE BY PARTY ID TOTAL Specter  Hoeffel  Clymer  
Democrat              (41%)      28%        71%      1%
Republican            (39%)      84%          9%      7%
Independent         (20%)     45%        47%       5%

Give Hoeffel 20% more of Democrats and give Toomey Clymer's voters.

Hoeffel adds 8% (.20*41) and Toomey adds 3% (.07*39) and 2% (.05*20)

Toomey - 50%
Hoeffel - 50%

and that's if you presume that the campaign would've gone similar. Certainly, the race wouldn't have been the blowout it was.
Logged
Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2005, 03:04:05 PM »

Surely, we also aren't forgetting that no Democrat has been elected as a Senator from PA since 1963. Casey could change that, Hoeffel would not have.
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Jake
dubya2004
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,621
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35

« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2005, 02:21:02 PM »

Um, Wofford was appointed by Casey, not elected. Santorum defeated him in 1994.
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