Toomey wins GOP primary...PA Senate 2004 (user search)
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  Toomey wins GOP primary...PA Senate 2004 (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who WINS?
#1
Toomey (R)
 
#2
Hoeffel (D)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 32

Author Topic: Toomey wins GOP primary...PA Senate 2004  (Read 7440 times)
Ben.
Ben
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« on: September 23, 2005, 01:03:20 PM »


Clymer ran because he saw Specter as no better than Hoeffel. He wouldn't have run. Hoeffel was also a comparatively weak candidate, even in an open seat race, and it is doubtful whether he'd be able to come up with the extra 8%+ he'd need to win this one.

VOTE BY PARTY ID TOTAL Specter  Hoeffel  Clymer  
Democrat              (41%)      28%        71%      1%
Republican            (39%)      84%          9%      7%
Independent         (20%)     45%        47%       5%

Give Hoeffel 20% more of Democrats and give Toomey Clymer's voters.

Hoeffel adds 8% (.20*41) and Toomey adds 3% (.07*39) and 2% (.05*20)

Toomey - 50%
Hoeffel - 50%

and that's if you presume that the campaign would've gone similar. Certainly, the race wouldn't have been the blowout it was.


I'd agree, in the end the race would be close, a weak, liberal Democrat against a more dynamic conservative republican in a state like PA probably means it goes down to the wire... in the end a toss-up i think, though Kerry's state-wide win would probably help Hoeffel overcome his own weaknesses, but as you say still very very close IMHO.   
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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2005, 03:28:44 PM »


Toomey isn't any further right than Santorum, who has won 2 statewide races and will win a third in 14 or so months.


Really don't understand your persistant belife that Casey will some how throw it away in Pa, sure its possible, but as things stand he's got the edge in what will admitably be a tough race.
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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2005, 06:05:17 AM »


Casey can win, but I don't think he will win or even that he is the favorite.  If anyone else other than Santorum were this far down at this point, I would say that, even given all of the factors that I mentioned with Casey, that person would be toast.  Santorum can fight back, and even if Casey wins, it won't be by much.


I'd agree that it'll be far far closer than the polls would suggest just now, but I don't agree that Santorum's campaigning 'form' and plentiful supply of cash will be enough to overcome Casey’s big lead in the polls, Santorum’s own unpopularity and the unpopularity of the GOP both nationally and in PA… narrow the gap? Yes (by quite a bit I would expect) actually beat Casey? IMHO no.     
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Ben.
Ben
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2005, 06:08:22 AM »


And I will never be able to understand how he won by so much (I understand he was a Casey appointee and Casey was popular but it still doesn't make sense).


Two words, James Carville

...the PA special election election was one of Carville's last big races IIRC.
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