MO-Mason/Dixon: McCaskill +1

[LimoLiberal]

For reference, Akin led McCaskill in every poll from March to August in 2012: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2012#Polling_2

[LimoLiberal]

For reference, Akin led McCaskill in every poll from March to August in 2012: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2012#Polling_2

she won’t beat Hawley by that margin, of course, but that’s actually a pretty positive sign

Yep. By my count, McCaskill has posted (1-2 point) leads in recent-ish PPP, Mason-Dixon, and Gravis polls, while Hawley led by 3 in the most recent Remington survey and by 8 in the trashy Axios poll. So the average is something like 45-44 Hawley, but that's obviously positively skewed.

[LimoLiberal]

For reference, Akin led McCaskill in every poll from March to August in 2012: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2012#Polling_2

she won’t beat Hawley by that margin, of course, but that’s actually a pretty positive sign

Yep. By my count, McCaskill has posted (1-2 point) leads in recent-ish PPP, Mason-Dixon, and Gravis polls, while Hawley led by 3 in the most recent Remington survey and by 8 in the trashy Axios poll. So the average is something like 45-44 Hawley, but that's obviously positively skewed.

What’s the average without Axios?

It's 46-44 Hawley with the Axios and 44-44 w/o.