Sabato's Crystal Ball: 3 House Rating Changes

[PragmaticPopulist]

Agree with FL-15 and KS-02; While Rs have a good chance of holding FL-15 at the moment, it has a history of being close in presidential elections. Also, it seems to hold similar characteristics to other suburban districts that might have voted for Trump, but are now swinging towards the Democrats, like the State house Special election in Sarasota earlier this year.

KS-02 is now the definition of a tossup. There have been a few polls showing a close race, with Paul Davis narrowly leading in some cases.

WI-01 I don't agree with, as while Obama did carry the current version in 2008, that was when Wisconsin was swinging hard to the left in the midst of a recession. This district contains places that historically have been quite R, including part of Waukesha. I would rate it Leans R right now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Tossup still might be a little too generous for Democrats' chances in WI-1. I agree with the other two though.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Tossup still might be a little too generous for Democrats' chances in WI-1. I agree with the other two though.

Probably because as the race stands "April 11th" it is a toss up because the GOP don't currently have a credible candidate. Until ones arises this race is toss up or even lean D.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tossup still might be a little too generous for Democrats' chances in WI-1. I agree with the other two though.

Probably because as the race stands "April 11th" it is a toss up because the GOP don't currently have a credible candidate. Until ones arises this race is toss up or even lean D.

Prediction: when a credible candidate emerges, they'll move it back to Lean or Likely R, which will prompt all sorts of hot takes on reversal of the blue wave.