Why does California have so many "Gene Green" type districts?

[Greedo punched first]

I noticed CA-47 is majority-minority, but represented by white Democrats (Gene Green type districts). CA-47 is plurality Hispanic. The number of these districts could even expand this year if Andy Thorburn (CA-39), a white Democrat in CA-25 (Jess Phoenix, Mary Pallant, or Katie Hill), and TJ Cox (CA-21) win. What's the reason for this?

[Dr. MB]

California’s a diverse state with 53 districts, it’s bound to have white reps of majority-minority districts as well as minority reps of majority white districts. Most don’t vote based on race or ethnicity.

Green is a huge anomaly as I think his district is only 2% white. Similar to Mia Love in Utah.

[Greedo punched first]

California’s a diverse state with 53 districts, it’s bound to have white reps of majority-minority districts as well as minority reps of majority white districts. Most don’t vote based on race or ethnicity.

Green is a huge anomaly as I think his district is only 2% white. Similar to Mia Love in Utah.

Lowenthal's district is plurality Hispanic. Valadao's district is majority Hispanic, and white Democrat TJ Cox could win. CA-39's Democratic base is largely Hispanic and located in Hacienda Heights, but white Democrat Andy Thorburn (carpetbagger from CA-45) has a chance. It seems this number of districts with a Hispanic Democratic base (but a white Democratic Representative) could exponentially grow this year. Why is that?

[Adam Griffin]

For starters, whites are much more Democratic in CA than they are in most other states. So when you have, say (for simplicity's sake) a 55% Latino, 40% White, 15% Other CD, whites would still be around one-third of the Democratic electorate in the worst-case scenario.

But perhaps more importantly, population =/= CVAP. In many of these districts, the Latino population might be 55%, but among citizen voting age population, they may only be 35% of the electorate (sometimes even less). Using the district breakdowns from the previous paragraph, that'd mean said district's Democratic electorate is closer to 45% white (making them the plurality group): enough to propel a white Democrat into the top-two a significant portion of the time.

Then, of course, you have to factor in how GOP voters are going to vote in a top-two situation. Especially in situations where it plays out between a white Democrat and a non-white Democrat, who do you think they're going to support more often than not?

[Greedo punched first]

For starters, whites are much more Democratic in CA than they are in most other states. So when you have, say (for simplicity's sake) a 55% Latino, 40% White, 15% Other CD, whites would still be around one-third of the Democratic electorate in the worst-case scenario.

But perhaps more importantly, population =/= CVAP. In many of these districts, the Latino population might be 55%, but among citizen voting age population, they may only be 35% of the electorate (sometimes even less). Using the district breakdowns from the previous paragraph, that'd mean said district's Democratic electorate is closer to 45% white (making them the plurality group): enough to propel a white Democrat into the top-two a significant portion of the time.

Then, of course, you have to factor in how GOP voters are going to vote in a top-two situation. Especially in situations where it plays out between a white Democrat and a non-white Democrat, who do you think they're going to support more often than not?

CA-39's Democratic base is largely Hispanic and located in Hacienda Heights. CA-47's Democratic base is largely Hispanic and located in Long Beach. Whites in the district lean GOP; and are mostly located in Cypress, Los Alamitos, and the specific majority-white neighborhoods of Long Beach, Garden Grove, and Westminster. CA-47 really is a "Gene Green" type district, though not quite as an extreme case.

[jimrtex]

California’s a diverse state with 53 districts, it’s bound to have white reps of majority-minority districts as well as minority reps of majority white districts. Most don’t vote based on race or ethnicity.

Green is a huge anomaly as I think his district is only 2% white. Similar to Mia Love in Utah.

TX-29 is about 10% Anglo and 11% Black, but when you factor out non-adults and non-citizens, it probably around 1/6 Anglo and 1/6 Black CVAP. But it increases all the more when you consider those who actually register to vote, or vote in a primary.

Gene Green, as a state senator, drew the district. Eddie Bernice Johnson did the same in Dallas. He narrowly won his first primary runoff in 1992, after finishing second in the primary. In the primary he had four opponents. The three Hispanic candidates collectively received 69.4% of the vote, Green had 27.5%, and a black candidate had 2.6%. Fun fact: Sylvia Garcia, the Democratic nominee in 2018, finished third in 1992.

Green defeated Ben Reyes in the primary runoff 50.3% to 49.7%, and then 51.5% to 48.5% in a rerun.

In 1994, he defeated Reyes 55.1% to 44.9%; and in 1996, he defeated Felix Fraga 63.5% to 36.5%.

He was unopposed for the next nine primaries, 1998 to 2014.

In 2016, he defeated Adrian Garcia, who had been elected sheriff. 57.4% to 38.6% (plus 4.0%).