2018 Irish 8th Amendment (Abortion) Referendum

[EPG]

Hmm, it's a good story, but the margin was 2,500, and as there are about 6,500 adults in the Bundoran - Ballyshannon area, that probably means less than 3,000 voters.

[Kevinstat]

Hmm, it's a good story, but the margin was 2,500, and as there are about 6,500 adults in the Bundoran - Ballyshannon area, that probably means less than 3,000 voters.

Hopefully results by county or county equivalent equivalent will eventually be made available for public viewing so that question can be settled.  I heard it from Nicholas Whyte who while from Norn Iron and I think living in Belgium seemed to have looked in to the results by polling place, and he doesn't seem like the type to make a claim like that without doing some verification first.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Finally, some good news!

[DC Al Fine]

I don't have too much to add. I thought the polls would narrow and Yes would would have a relatively small win. Obviously I was wrong on that front. Ireland is rapidly converging on the rest of the West for good or for ill (Ill obviously IMO).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Should Roe ever get overturned, I have no doubt US public opinion would start to look a lot more like those results than what we see today.

It's actually the other way around. Ireland remains more anti-abortion than the US; and public opinion in America would need to look more like Ireland's in order to be Roe to be overturned...

[DC Al Fine]

Should Roe ever get overturned, I have no doubt US public opinion would start to look a lot more like those results than what we see today.

It's actually the other way around. Ireland remains more anti-abortion than the US; and public opinion in America would need to look more like Ireland's in order to be Roe to be overturned...

Is there any good Irish polling on the public's preferred abortion policy? I.e. X weeks limit, exceptions for Y &Z etc.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Should Roe ever get overturned, I have no doubt US public opinion would start to look a lot more like those results than what we see today.

It's actually the other way around. Ireland remains more anti-abortion than the US; and public opinion in America would need to look more like Ireland's in order to be Roe to be overturned...

Is there any good Irish polling on the public's preferred abortion policy? I.e. X weeks limit, exceptions for Y &Z etc.

From a Jas post elsewhere:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would imagine that well over 70% of Americans back abortion-on-demand up to 12 weeks...

[DC Al Fine]

Should Roe ever get overturned, I have no doubt US public opinion would start to look a lot more like those results than what we see today.

It's actually the other way around. Ireland remains more anti-abortion than the US; and public opinion in America would need to look more like Ireland's in order to be Roe to be overturned...

Is there any good Irish polling on the public's preferred abortion policy? I.e. X weeks limit, exceptions for Y &Z etc.

From a Jas post elsewhere:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would imagine that well over 70% of Americans back abortion-on-demand up to 12 weeks...

Thanks for the info. I did a little digging and it's about 2/3 in favour in the first trimester (which is about 12 weeks). So the Irish are still somewhat more pro-life than the Americans.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Should Roe ever get overturned, I have no doubt US public opinion would start to look a lot more like those results than what we see today.

It's actually the other way around. Ireland remains more anti-abortion than the US; and public opinion in America would need to look more like Ireland's in order to be Roe to be overturned...

Is there any good Irish polling on the public's preferred abortion policy? I.e. X weeks limit, exceptions for Y &Z etc.

From a Jas post elsewhere:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would imagine that well over 70% of Americans back abortion-on-demand up to 12 weeks...

Thanks for the info. I did a little digging and it's about 2/3 in favour in the first trimester (which is about 12 weeks). So the Irish are still somewhat more pro-life than the Americans.

American polling is often inconsistent and contradictory.  For instance, most Americans will say that abortion for convenience/financial reason should be illegal, but then they will say something else depending on how the question is phrased.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

I've never understood why people follow a religion and then don't pay attention to the teachings of the religion they follow.  But I'm not Catholic.

Anyway, I wonder how the protestants voted.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Should Roe ever get overturned, I have no doubt US public opinion would start to look a lot more like those results than what we see today.

It's actually the other way around. Ireland remains more anti-abortion than the US; and public opinion in America would need to look more like Ireland's in order to be Roe to be overturned...

Is there any good Irish polling on the public's preferred abortion policy? I.e. X weeks limit, exceptions for Y &Z etc.

From a Jas post elsewhere:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would imagine that well over 70% of Americans back abortion-on-demand up to 12 weeks...

But the 30% that don't elected the president. Weird how the world works.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Should Roe ever get overturned, I have no doubt US public opinion would start to look a lot more like those results than what we see today.

It's actually the other way around. Ireland remains more anti-abortion than the US; and public opinion in America would need to look more like Ireland's in order to be Roe to be overturned...

Is there any good Irish polling on the public's preferred abortion policy? I.e. X weeks limit, exceptions for Y &Z etc.

From a Jas post elsewhere:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I would imagine that well over 70% of Americans back abortion-on-demand up to 12 weeks...

I don't think that's right with regard to America.

If only half of Irish voters support abortion-on-demand up to 12 weeks, even though the government ran on that as its stated policy to implement once 8th is repealed...  I suppose that's one silver lining in terms of the Irish moral compass not so far gone perhaps as it looked from the vote itself.

Thanks btw Antonio on relaying Nathan's comment.

Do anyone know if there are any results reported at the sub-constituency level?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I've never understood why people follow a religion and then don't pay attention to the teachings of the religion they follow.  But I'm not Catholic.

Anyway, I wonder how the protestants voted.

Well, the one place that voted No was the most Protestant part of the country

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I've never understood why people follow a religion and then don't pay attention to the teachings of the religion they follow.  But I'm not Catholic.

Anyway, I wonder how the protestants voted.

Well, the one place that voted No was the most Protestant part of the country

Not surprising. Catholics tend to be more liberal and open to change.

[Intell]

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0526/966120-eighth-amendment-referendum/

Exit Polls. What's the divergence with finna fail and every other party?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The fact that nearly 90% of 18-24 year olds voted repeal, although unsurprising, gives me chills.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I've never understood why people follow a religion and then don't pay attention to the teachings of the religion they follow.  But I'm not Catholic.

Anyway, I wonder how the protestants voted.

Well, the one place that voted No was the most Protestant part of the country

Not surprising. Catholics tend to be more liberal and open to change.

That isn't really what that means.  Donegal is the most Protestant area of Ireland at about 8%, but
about 80% Catholic (making it a bit more Catholic than the Republic of Ireland as a whole at this point).    The population is relatively old and religious, with some holding on to the traditional Gaelic tongue.

[cp]

Social change in Ireland has been seismic.
1980: Contraception legalized by prescription for family planning purposes only.
1983: Constitutional ban on abortion introduced by referendum. Life of the unborn equals the life of the mother.
1985: Contraception becomes available at pharmacies for over 18s without prescription.
1986: Referendum to remove the constitutional ban on divorce fails.
1993: Condoms no longer classified as contraceptives and become widely available. Homosexual activity decriminalized.
1995: Divorce legalized by referendum -- 50.3% in favor.
2003: Morning after pill becomes available with a prescription only.
2011: Morning after pill becomes available without a prescription.
2015: Marriage Equality legalized by referendum.

There is no doubt this will be called a revolution in the history books.

Varadkar already referred to a 'quiet revolution' yesterday, which is a delightful formulation for what's been going on. I'd never put it together before, but Ireland in the 00s really does look like Quebec in the 60s.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The fact that nearly 90% of 18-24 year olds voted repeal, although unsurprising, gives me chills.

In the US, most abortion polls show no age gap and some even show a slight reverse age gap.  I wonder why Ireland is so different.

[EPG]

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2018/0526/966120-eighth-amendment-referendum/

Exit Polls. What's the divergence with finna fail and every other party?

Older voters, and, the only parliamentary party to majority-oppose the law. As for why there is an age gap, it's hard to explain succinctly but Catholic observance and affinity have collapsed in each generation.

Social change in Ireland has been seismic.
1980: Contraception legalized by prescription for family planning purposes only.
1983: Constitutional ban on abortion introduced by referendum. Life of the unborn equals the life of the mother.
1985: Contraception becomes available at pharmacies for over 18s without prescription.
1986: Referendum to remove the constitutional ban on divorce fails.
1993: Condoms no longer classified as contraceptives and become widely available. Homosexual activity decriminalized.
1995: Divorce legalized by referendum -- 50.3% in favor.
2003: Morning after pill becomes available with a prescription only.
2011: Morning after pill becomes available without a prescription.
2015: Marriage Equality legalized by referendum.

There is no doubt this will be called a revolution in the history books.

Varadkar already referred to a 'quiet revolution' yesterday, which is a delightful formulation for what's been going on. I'd never put it together before, but Ireland in the 00s really does look like Quebec in the 60s.

He's such a wonk that he almost certainly knows that, or hires someone who does (Patrick Geoghegan?).

[DC Al Fine]

The fact that nearly 90% of 18-24 year olds voted repeal, although unsurprising, gives me chills.

In the US, most abortion polls show no age gap and some even show a slight reverse age gap.  I wonder why Ireland is so different.

I'm not knowledgable enough to give a detailed explanation, so I'll just leave it at: Irish and American youth have very different relationships with religion and secularism.

[kph14]

Europe's youth is secular and liberal. Many Europeans would consider many controversial liberal policy positions consensus (gun laws, abortions, labor rights, universal healthcare etc.)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The fact that nearly 90% of 18-24 year olds voted repeal, although unsurprising, gives me chills.

In the US, most abortion polls show no age gap and some even show a slight reverse age gap.  I wonder why Ireland is so different.

All of that is completely false.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The fact that nearly 90% of 18-24 year olds voted repeal, although unsurprising, gives me chills.

In the US, most abortion polls show no age gap and some even show a slight reverse age gap.  I wonder why Ireland is so different.

All of that is completely false.

[citation needed]

[IceAgeComing]

The fact that nearly 90% of 18-24 year olds voted repeal, although unsurprising, gives me chills.

In the US, most abortion polls show no age gap and some even show a slight reverse age gap.  I wonder why Ireland is so different.

I'm not knowledgable enough to give a detailed explanation, so I'll just leave it at: Irish and American youth have very different relationships with religion and secularism.

People who are a lot more knowledgable than me can correct me but here's my opinion on why this is the case.  Broadly the Catholic Church played an incredibly strong role in Irish civil life and remains a key thing that differentiates the Republic from the UK and especially the North.  It was also basically the monolithic faith (80% of people there still identify as Catholic and that's fallen in recent years: don't have data on this but in the past I'd guess that number was a lot higher and other than a few Church of Ireland people it was pretty damn monolithic) and one that dominated so much of public life including a very prominent position in schools.  In recent years there seems to have been massive changes in the way that Irish Society views the Church (perhaps akin to the Quiet Revolution in Quebec: there seems to be some parallels) and because of the monolithic nature of the Church there wasn't any real alternatives available and this perhaps resulted in a large number of people having a very negative view on Christianity generally: secularism is seen as being key in opening up public life in Ireland and making the country less... stifling for lack of a better word.  However in America you don't have that situation: while Christianity is pretty damn monolithic its not one particular form of it but you have a million and also the Church isn't present everywhere you go which means that young Americans probably develop a healthier relationship with the Church generally - perhaps also the fact that you have a more open society when it comes to conversion means that young Americans are more likely to seek out an alternative Church than just throw the whole thing out entirely.

Another factor might be the total absence of evangelical christianity in any real sense: most young Christians in America go to Evangelical or non-traditional Churches and that isn't something that really exists in most of Europe.  That has a two-pronged impact: first it weakens the importance of religion generally since younger people are either totally non-religious or have very weak attachment to the Church and don't really follow what they say and also it means that those faiths that have the most impact on public policy tend to be the Catholic Church - which tends to be the most politically active on issues like Abortion - and mild forms of Protestantism that generally are more concerned with issues like poverty and similar economic issues than they are about culture war socon stuff.  Although none of them will ever outright support Abortion they tend to accept the current situation as the best possible and on other questions like LGBTQ rights you are seeing some pretty rapid change on acceptance of Queer people in the Church - look at the Church of Scotland for a good example of this - and that generally isn't the case for Evangelical Churches.  The thing that sparked off the American culture wars was the significant growth of Evangelical Christianity in the 70s and 80s and that didn't really happen in Europe: and that is a massive and very important difference to keep in mind.

Not surprising. Catholics tend to be more liberal and open to change.

This is a very American-centric viewpoint that ignores the experiences of the rest of the world and especially Europe.

Broadly; the places in Europe that retain strongly anti-choice abortion legislation (Poland and Malta the big two; although this technically applies to Ireland until the 12 week bill passes and that would still be comparatively Conservative for Europe) are countries where the Catholic Church traditionally played (and the case of Poland still very much plays: don't know about Malta quite as much) an incredibly strong and key role in society.

To use Poland as a key example of this: its possibly the most Catholic nation in Europe (87.6% of Poles are Catholic according to the census and they have a much higher than average rate of regular Church attendance and its holding up - lots of reasons for this, I'd attribute one as being the fact that the Church was really the only independent Civil Society organisation in Communist times and other networks haven't really developed so the Church remains strong) and its policies on things like Abortion and LGBTQ issues are very right wing which seem to broadly be in line with popular opinion on said issues.  Compare Poland to their neighbours who aren't Catholic and you'll find very different legislation on Abortion and perhaps even less regressive policies on LGBT people for example - not saying that the Czech Republic (although it was Catholic after the counter-reformation and Protestantism never really recovered it never was strongly so and there was plenty of opposition to the Catholic Church and 70% of people there are either atheists or non-religious) or similar places are paragons of progressivism or whatever but there is a clear trend for countries that have strongly socially-conservative legislation to broadly have strong Catholic churches.

To give a strong example that's close to home: Scotland in a country that traditionally has had a strong religious divide with two prominent faiths: the Church of Scotland (a presbyterian church: traditionally quite Conservative although its changed a hell of a lot recently) and Catholicism (many Catholics being descendants of Irish migrants).  In recent years when matters such as Marriage Equality or currently the proposed changes to the Gender Recognition Act to liberalise laws on trans issues (broadly taking away the gatekeeping aspect of changing legal gender markers and introducing a gender-neutral option) typically the Church of Scotland is relatively silent (it officially opposed Marriage Equality although it didn't do so loudly and things are changing on that front) while the Catholic Church makes a lot of noise to try and stand against the proposed changes.  Now that wasn't always the case and the Church of Scotland used to be pretty Conservative however Scotland as a whole has changed pretty quickly on issues like this (generally as secularism has risen: "No Religion" now beats both the Church of Scotland and Catholicism in the Census) and what seems to have happened is that the Church of Scotland has taken theological positions that are generally more tolerant and progressive than those of the Catholic Church in Scotland.  Now this isn't the case necessarily for Protestantism generally (there are lots of small ex-CoS splitters like the Free Church of Scotland) but generally these churches are more skewed in the North of Scotland and aren't overly significant on a national level and we don't really have prominent evangelical churches so the Kirk is the most prominent and broadly does as good a job as you could expect from a major Church - although I grew up in a pretty strongly Protestant family so perhaps that's just latent sympathy with them, I don't know.

Northern Ireland stands out a little in that it is a place where the Catholic population appear more 'progressive' on issues like Abortion (although this isn't the case for active church-goers although in practice this doesn't influence their vote other than causing a few of the more dedicated to vote SDLP since very few Catholics would ever vote for the Unionist parties) and that's more because the type of protestantism that is present in Northern Ireland is a lot more radical and fundamentalist than typical European Protestantism usually is - perhaps you could compare it to America; to some extent.  Why this is the case is again something for people who are experts to talk about - perhaps its because of the importance of Religion and Sectarian issues in the Province and that led to Protestants being theologically more reactionary; I don't know.