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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Should've left Pangolins alone, Apocrypha)
  Four More Years II- the Third Obama Administration
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #225 on: August 20, 2018, 12:28:07 pm »

November 7th, 2018

THE 2018 MIDTERM ELECTIONS: SPECIAL COVERAGE

2018 U.S. Senate Election Map


Composition of the U.S. Senate:

Democratic Majority- 51 Seats (Leader: Chuck Schumer)
Democrats: 49 Seats  (-5)
Independents (Caucusing with the Democrats): 2 Seats  (+-0)


Republican Minority- 49 Seats (Leader: Mitch McConnell)
Republicans: 49 Seats  (+5)


Freshman Senator Class, 2019: Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Eric Garcetti (D-CA), Todd Young (R-IN), Norm Coleman (R-MN), Ryan Zinke (R-MT), Brian Sandoval (R-NV), Thomas Kean Jr. (R-NJ), Kevin Cramer (R-ND), John Kasich (R-OH), Tom Ridge (R-PA), Bill Haslam (R-TN), Jon Huntsman (R-UT), Carte Goodwin (D-WV).

The return of the Rockfeller Republican? As moderate Democrats lose their races, Republicans see a moderate majority in their freshman class



PHILADELPHIA - The Senate elections last night produced some interesting results. While Republicans gained seven seats and Democrats gained Arizona's two seats- a Republican net gain of five- the Democrats retained control of the Senate 51-49. But one of the big stories produced last night was exactly which Republicans won- while far-right figures like Don Blankenship in West Virginia and Kelly Ward in Arizona, or mainstream conservatives like Josh Hawley in Missouri, Marco Rubio in Florida and Martha McSally in Arizona, could not win their elections, moderate and centrist Republicans dominated throughout the nation, winning upset after upset. This includes the surprising victories of Thomas Kean Jr. in New Jersey and Tom Ridge in Pennsylvania, both defeating Democrats initially thought fairly safe, Norm Coleman in Minnesota, who won his old seat with the promise of bipartisanship, Brian Sandoval in Nevada and Jon Huntsman in Utah, two very moderate Republicans popular in their states, and possibly John Kasich in Ohio, who shockingly defeated a strong incumbent and is considered a conservative who turned relatively moderate in the modern Republican Party. Even Bill Haslam in Tennessee and Todd Young in Indiana are considered conservatives opposed to reactionism. This lead many to speculate that this might just be the return of the "Rockfeller Republicans"- a moderate, often centrist brand of politicians who are usually socially liberal. Others claim that this is merely a fluke caused by circumstances, and that the Republican Party is still the one that nominated Donald Trump in 2016. In any case, what's for sure is that with these six members joining their moderate Senate colleagues, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and with a close split in the higher chamber, the centrist wing of the Republican Party is going to have an outsized importance.

Meanwhile, in the Democratic Party, it seemed like a reverse trend occured. They lost three of their most moderate members, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Jon Tester of Montana, in the same night, and another one, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), was replaced by a relatively liberal Democrat. One Democrat who did survive, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, is to the left of these four. Heitkamp, Donnelly, Manchin and, to a lesser extent, Tester, voted against the President on key issues- Heitkamp voted against the Save Our Children Act and the Environmental Protection and Clean Energy Act, trying to show support for gun rights and the fossil fuel industry; Donnelly, as well as Heitkamp, voted against the Guaranteed Healthcare Act; and both of them, as well as Manchin and McCaskill, voted against the TPP. But while Heitkamp and Donnelly lost handily, McCaskill managed to survive. This means that, in the next six years, Democrats will have much less dissent from the right of their ranks, with the most conservative members remaining being Senators Evan Bayh (D-IN), Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and, to a lesser extent, Carte Goodwin (D-WV).



Composition of the U.S. House of Representatives:
Democratic Party: 221  (-10)
Republcian Party: 214  (+10)

Upcoming House Leadership:
House Speaker: Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
House Majority Leader: Steve Israel (D-NY)
House Majority Whip: TBD

House Minority Leader: Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
House Minority Whip: Steve Scalise (R-LA)

The sweet end of the first woman Speaker- Pelosi announces 2020 retirement after Demorats narrowly retain control of the House



WASHINGTON, D.C. - After a very close and tense night, Demcorats managed to narrowly retain the House of Representatives, with a slim eight-person majority. The President's Party made three gains tonight, susprisingly- Democrat Jim Gray, former Mayor of Lexington, defeated U.S. Rep. Andy Barr in Kentucky's sixth congressional district; former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine defeated U.S. Rep. Miguel Díaz de la Portilla in Florida's 27th district; and finally, veteran Jared Golden won the congressional race in Maine's 2nd district, defeating Republican Kevin Raye, former State Senate President, in a very close race. But at the same time, Republicans gained thirteen seats, making it a net gain of ten. This is very good news for Democrats, who'll continue to control congress, and this morning Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a surprise announcement- this will be her last term. Ruling the Democratic majority, it's a sweet way for the first female Speaker to end her career, but also sparked an early battle for the future leadership of the caucus. It's too early to tell who's interested and can win at the moment, but according to early estimations, likely candidates include House Majority Leader Steve Israel (D-NY), U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján (D-NM), Assistant Leader Jim Clyburn (D-SC), Vice Chair of the Caucus Linda Sánchez (D-CA) and others. Meanwhile, there's a nother battle brewing- with the retirement of Majority Whip Steny Hoyer, a battle has already commenced for his role. Leading contenders include  U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA), U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA), U.S. Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-LA), U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-MI) and U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI).

On the Republican side, battles were actually averted since U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan was forced to retire due to scandal, and former House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy sailed ot the position of caucus leader, succeeding the retied former Speaker Paul Ryan. U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA), thought to be a challenge, opted to remain Whip.

2018 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections Map


State of the U.S. Governorships:
Republican Party- 30  (-1)
Democratic Party- 19  (+-0)
Independents- 2  (+1)


Upcoming Governors, 2019: Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Jared Polis (D-CO),, Erin Stewart (R-CT), Mike Huckabee (R-FL), Stacey Abrams (D-GA), Brad Little (R-ID), Kim Reynolds (R-IA), Greg Orman (I-KS), Betsy Sweet (D-ME), Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), Joe Heck (R-NV), Scott Brown (R-NH), Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM), Mike DeWine (R-OH), Scott Pruit (R-OK), Charlie Dent (R-PA), Allan Fung (R-RI), Trey Gowdy (R-SC), Kristi Noem (R-SD), Bob Corker (R-TN), Ron Kind (D-WI), Mark Gordon (R-WY).

Republicans win big in governorships, but lose key races



NASHVILLE - Tennessee Governor Bill Haslam has quite a few reasons to smile this morning. He won a Senate seat last night, ensuring the longevity of his political career, and he also happens to be the Chair of the Republican Governor's Association, leading the wildly successful GOP gubernatorial campaign arm in the 2018 midterms. With his party controlling 26 of the 36 seats that were up last night, he managed to not only prevent many losses, but also helped his party make many gains, making it by far the most successful part of the midterms for the GOP. The party retained seats in swing states such as Florida, Ohio and Nevada, and gained ones in the Democratic-leaning states of Connecticut, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. However, not all was bright- the Republicans blundered in Georgia and Kansas, two conservative-leaning states where they nominated controversial and unpopular candidates in the form of Herman Cain and Kris Kobach, leading to the elections of liberal Democrat Stacey Abrams in Georgia and moderate Independent Greg Orman in Kansas. And in Wisconsin, Governor Scott Walker was defeated by Ron Kind, a very pleasant surprise for Demcorats. It was, indeed, quite an odd election night, that produced a large number of unusual figures who will be elected Governors- Abrams and Orman are ones, but so are blasts from the past such as former Arkansas Governor and 2008 Republican Presidential runner-up Mike Huckabee, who won the Governor's Mansion in his new home of Florida, former Governor and 2012 Presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty, who regained his old job in Minnesota, and former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, elected in an upset in 2010 as a moderate and defeated by Elizabeth Warren in 2012, who will now be the next New Hampshire Governor. Other interesting occurences are two Senators elected Governor- Bob Corker in Tennesee and Joe Heck in Nevada- and the fact that Maine, of all places, will be the only New England state to have a Demcoratic Governor.

The 2018 Midterms- compared to 2010 and 2014, a mere flesh wound for President Obama



CHICAGO - All in all, President Barack Obama can be happy about his party's showing in the third midterm of his Presidency. Despite a bad map, his party didn't suffer disastrous losses, suggesting he's quite popular, and with favourable maps ahead in 2020 and 2022, Democrats can be encouraged. He retained his majorities in both Houses, and the election of many moderate Republicans to the Senate makes it easier to pass his agenda than the numbers would suggest. After accomplishments on healthcare and gun control during the first half of the term, Obama reportedly plans to focus on areas where more agreement could be found with centrists in the next half, such as immigration reform, LGBTQ rights, trade and the environment. It looks like the Obama agenda can continue, but at the mean time, with the President reportedly very unlikely to run in 2020 for a fourth term, the Presidential race on both side appears to be heating up. Democrats are likely encouraged about their chances for a historic fourth victory after the midterms, and Republicans are fired up and ready to reclaim the White House. The fields on both sides are thus expected to be crowded, and polls suggest an uncertain picture, with Vice President Baldwin, Senator Sanders and Secretary of State biden the perliminary Democratic frontrunners, with prominent Obama administration figures also in a strong position, and the Republican field is even more confused, especially with the elections of Kasich and Huntsman to the Senate virtually eliminating them as possible Presidential candidates, and the losses of former Senator Marco Rubio and Governor Scott Walker making them very unlikely, too.

Who would you vote for if the 2020 Republican Presidential Primary in your state was held today?
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)- 20%
Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ)- 15%
Governor Charlie Baker (R-MA)- 11%
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)- 9%
Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR)- 7%
Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)- 6%
Fmr. Speaker Leader Paul Ryan- 4%
Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE)- 3%
Governor Bruce Rauner (R-IL)- 3%
Fmr. SoS Kris Kobach (R-KS)- 2%
Fmr. Governor Rick Perry (R-TX)- 1%
Undecided/Other- 19%

Who would you vote for if the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary in your state was held today?
Secretary of State Joe Biden (D-DE)- 20%
Vice President Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)- 17%
Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)- 14%
Senator Elizabetn Warren (D-MA)- 7%
EPA Administrator Al Gore (D-TN)- 6%
HHS Secretary Howard Dean (D-VT)- 5%
Senator Jason Kander (D-MO)- 4%
Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 4%
Attorney General Deval Patrick (D-MA)- 3%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)- 2%
Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)- 1%
Secretary of HUD Julian Castro (D-TX)- 1%
Senator Amy Klobucher (D-MN)- 1%
Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)- 0.5%
Fmr. Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD)- 0.5%
Undecided/Other- 14%
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #226 on: August 20, 2018, 12:29:08 pm »

This was all for a while, thank you all for reading! Smiley If anyone has any questions (including who won a particular congressional district etc) feel free to ask! I'll now be focusing on my other TL, Mayor Pete, for a while.
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Edgeofnight
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« Reply #227 on: August 20, 2018, 01:04:38 pm »

Suprised that Christie is polling in Second. Expecting 2020 to come down to Baker, Cruz/Cotton (or both), and one or two other candidates, although predicting what you are planning can be difficult.  On the Democratic side I fully expect Biden and Baldwin to run. Those two plus Booker and or Harris would lead the field, although I'm not discounting the potential for a surprise appearance from Kander.
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razze
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« Reply #228 on: August 20, 2018, 01:42:03 pm »

Great FL-27 shoutout Smiley
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President Biden
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« Reply #229 on: August 20, 2018, 01:43:27 pm »

Which seats did Republicans pickup, and which seats changed in 2016?
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #230 on: August 20, 2018, 02:32:16 pm »

Suprised that Christie is polling in Second. Expecting 2020 to come down to Baker, Cruz/Cotton (or both), and one or two other candidates, although predicting what you are planning can be difficult.  On the Democratic side I fully expect Biden and Baldwin to run. Those two plus Booker and or Harris would lead the field, although I'm not discounting the potential for a surprise appearance from Kander.

Christie was Trump's running mate in 2016 ITTL, so his name recognition propels him. And interesting predictions- I won't say if they're correct, but there will be surprised Wink

Which seats did Republicans pickup, and which seats changed in 2016?

A LOT of seats changed in 2016 Tongue Democrats gained 43 seats then, so my limited knowledge of local American politics won't be enough to let me say exactly which ones changed, plus I like the flexibility of non-determination on this issue. As for Republican pickups in 2018- I might compile a list later, but I can say that at least 1-2 were in California (where Dems flipped a lot of seats in 2016). However, if you ask me about individual seats that interest you, I can provide their 2016-2018 history. Smiley
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« Reply #231 on: August 20, 2018, 02:47:10 pm »

Did ojeda run/win
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#Solid4096
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« Reply #232 on: August 20, 2018, 02:48:22 pm »


Obviously not.
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Admiral Florida Man
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« Reply #233 on: August 20, 2018, 04:01:02 pm »

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« Reply #234 on: August 20, 2018, 04:04:15 pm »

Did Zephyr Teachout win in 2016 NY-19 in this timeline?
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« Reply #235 on: August 20, 2018, 04:05:55 pm »

Did Zephyr Teachout win in 2016 NY-19 in this timeline?
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« Reply #236 on: August 20, 2018, 04:09:23 pm »

Republicans didn't lose Key Races in the Governorships. Hilarious from Parrotguy to pretend Kansas or Georgia being "Key Races". Republicans retained FL & OH and picked up PA.
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« Reply #237 on: August 20, 2018, 04:12:55 pm »

Republicans didn't lose Key Races in the Governorships. Hilarious from Parrotguy to pretend Kansas or Georgia being "Key Races". Republicans retained FL & OH and picked up PA.

Lost Michigan
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« Reply #238 on: August 20, 2018, 09:49:51 pm »

Republicans didn't lose Key Races in the Governorships. Hilarious from Parrotguy to pretend Kansas or Georgia being "Key Races". Republicans retained FL & OH and picked up PA.

Are we going to sit by while this dude oppresses Parrotguy's free speech? Parrotguy Is 'Mayor Pete' Country now anyway
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« Reply #239 on: August 20, 2018, 10:29:28 pm »

Republicans didn't lose Key Races in the Governorships. Hilarious from Parrotguy to pretend Kansas or Georgia being "Key Races". Republicans retained FL & OH and picked up PA.

Are we going to sit by while this dude oppresses Parrotguy's free speech? Parrotguy Is 'Mayor Pete' Country now anyway
Listen here, lyin’ Razzguy.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #240 on: August 20, 2018, 11:50:52 pm »

Wow! Three wins in eight years. Kasich could become a front runner.
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« Reply #241 on: August 20, 2018, 11:55:19 pm »

Florida Gubernatorial Election (28% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
Fmr. AR Governor Mike Huckabee (R)- 41.5% ✓
Lawyer John Morgan (I)- 32.0%
Mayor Andrew Gillum (D)- 25.5%

N U T
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #242 on: August 21, 2018, 03:27:33 am »

Republicans didn't lose Key Races in the Governorships. Hilarious from Parrotguy to pretend Kansas or Georgia being "Key Races". Republicans retained FL & OH and picked up PA.

Lost Michigan

This lol. Also, losing Georgia in a favourable year is pretty painful. In any case, I clearly wrote that the Republicans won big in governorships, so I don't see the problem.
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« Reply #243 on: December 02, 2018, 06:07:27 pm »

I understand your writing Mayor Pete (which is fantastic), I was wondering if this timeline will make a return? It's awesome!
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #244 on: December 03, 2018, 06:13:56 am »

I understand your writing Mayor Pete (which is fantastic), I was wondering if this timeline will make a return? It's awesome!

Yep, I am planning to finish at least the third term, and maybe even the 2020 election, though it's likelier further in the future since I kinda want to start a new TL after Mayor Pete is done. But I'm bored at work atm, so I might just write a chapter of this TL now, we'll see Tongue
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« Reply #245 on: December 03, 2018, 09:40:58 am »

I would have to say that Haslam, being the one that led the GOP to victory in the Governor Elections, will have a lot of support for 2020. Even if he's only been in the Senate for 2 years at that point, he will have the same pull that other people had due to his experience as Governor and Mayor (also, everyone else is ew, so I wouldn't vote for anyone except maybe an Independent Mark Cuban)
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #246 on: December 03, 2018, 12:04:58 pm »

November 8th, 2018

President Obama thanks American people for "democratic participation" after high-turnout midterms, promises bipartisan outreach



WASHINGTON, D.C. - In the afternoon following a tense midterm election night, President Barack Obama looked satisfied with the results as he thanked the American people for "a fantastic election season and wonderful participation". In his remarks, the President made an emphasis on bipartisanship and cooperation with moderate Republicans, an expected move following a resurgence of centrist Republican members of congress, especially in the Senate. As Demcorats lose five seats, Obama will have to increasingly rely on Republican votes to pass his agenda, and he seems determined to avoid the obstructionism of 2015-2017, and so called on Senate Republicans to "work together with their colleagues and with out administration to find real solutions to the problems facing America." He pointed out the main issues the administration plans to tackle this year, with an emphasis on issues that seem likely to attract bipartisan support- criminal justice reform, immigration reform and a trade deal with europe, a Trans Atlantic Pact.

November 21st, 2018

Justice Ginsburg announces retirement after rib-shattering fall, sets up confirmation battle in lame-duck season



NEW YORK CITY - Longtime Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal favourite, has announced her retirement from the Court, citing old age and then need for new blood on the Court. Ginsburg, a daughter of Russian-Jewish immigrants, has dedicated much of her life to struggle for women's rights and gender equality. As she retired, she earned praise from liberals, like President Obama who called her "an icon we'll forever remember". Now that her seat has opened, President Barack Obama has yet another Supreme Court seat to fill, and is expected to search for a fiery liberal woman to confirm, which likely sets up a confirmation battle. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has already signaled that he's likely to nuke the judicial filibuster, a controversial move that would make life easier for the President in the next congress too. Two more retirements are expected in the next two years- moderate conservative Justice Anthony Kennedy and liberal Justice Stephen Breyer, meaning that the court could move further left soon.

December 2nd, 2018

Democratic House caucus retains Pelosi as Speaker, Israel as Majority Leader; Barbara Lee elected Majority Whip with Presidential support



WASHINGTON, D.C. - Yesterday, the Democratic House Caucus held the vote for leadership positions in the next congress. While Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who announced that this would be her last term, and Majority Leader Steve Israel, also reportedly contemplating retirement in 2020, have both won their positions almost unanimously, the Whip position was contested, and ended up with victory for progressive U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee, who reportedly had behind-the-scenes support from Obamaworld. She was elected over rival Debbie Dingell, as well as Seth Moulton and Tulsi Gabbard, meaning that the Democratic leadership trio will have a female majority in the next congress. Progressives have praised the President's move, with Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) calling it "unifying and prudent". On the Republican side, current Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy was elected Minority Leader and Majority Whip Steve Scalise was elected Minority Whip, as expected.

December 13th, 2018

Gun violence "on the decline" months after passage of SOCA



WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Save Our Children Act passed in September, restricting magazine size and introducing bullet and age limits, banning bump-stocks and military-rank guns and imposing universal background checks, seems to be working. According to recent statistics collected about the months October and November, gun violence has seen a slow but steady decline, despite the long-term effects of the bill not being close to playing out yet. Vice President Tammy Baldwin, who's considered likely to run for President in 2020 and who was the key figure behind the formation of the bill, touted the achievement, saying that "as time passes, we'll hopefully see many less school shootings and fatal events" and added that "maybe one day we can eliminate gun violence like the rest of the western world". The Parkland survivors, who continued advocating for further gun control, said that the trend shows "how gun control can do wonders to save people like our friends", and added that more measures are needed.

December 21st

Biden on 2020 Presidential bid: "I'm thinking about it", hints that retirement might be likelier



WILMINGTON - Secretary of State Joe Biden, who continued keeping a high profile in the past four years with successful climate and North Korea negotiations, is still thinking about running for President in 2020. Biden, who has a deep resume as former Senator, Vice President and now Secretary of State, is considered an instant frontrunner if he decides to run, polling above Vice President Tammy Baldwin, another likely candidate, who's still lower profile than him. But Biden, 76, might just want to retire- he lost his son in 2015, and the decision to retire from the Vice Presidency reflects his grief, though he decided to jump into the State Department for the sake of the President, his friend. Now, Biden said that "new blood might be needed and I do want to spend time with my family and rest after decades of service", hinting that a run might be less likely than not as of now. At the same time, it looks like other members of the administration are gearing up for a possible run- other than Baldwin, other names considering a bid are Attorney General Deval Patrick, HUD Secretary Julian Castro, HHS Secretary Howard Dean, who regained prominence after helping pass the popular Guaranteed Healthcare Act, and even EPA Administrator Al Gore, former Vice President, is making sounds of a run after being the face of the administration's climate change efforts.

President Obama Job Approval
Approve- 54%
Disapprove- 41%
Not Sure- 5%
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« Reply #247 on: December 03, 2018, 06:38:42 pm »

Excellent stuff! Smiley
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« Reply #248 on: December 07, 2018, 02:01:35 pm »

I hope you do decided to work on this after your done with Mayor Pete because I really really like this TL
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« Reply #249 on: December 07, 2018, 03:21:13 pm »

Why do McCaskill, Nelson and Abrams win in this when they lost IRL?
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