Four More Years II- the Third Obama Administration (user search)
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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Posts: 11,441
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.48

« Reply #75 on: August 12, 2018, 01:55:31 PM »

Minnesota isn't filled in on the Senate map.

Because there are two races there- the regular race was called for Klobucher, but the special election is still too close to call.

If the two races split(1 to Dem, 1 to GOP) how would you color code the state because I dont think you can color a state purple on these maps.

True. I'm planning to colour it red if both Dems win, and Orange if Klobucher and Coleman win.
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,441
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.48

« Reply #76 on: August 13, 2018, 02:00:55 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2018, 01:44:13 PM by Parrotguy »

MIDTERM NIGHT, Part VII


King: ...And in an early call, we're now able to call Nevada's Senate race for the Republican nominee, Governor Brian Sandoval. He was widely expected to beat Democrat Harry Reid, who he easily beat for Governor in 2010 and who was considered a sacrifical lamb for Democrats. Sandoval is considered by many as one of the most moderate Republicans in the country, and it would be interesting to see the dynamics he has with the Obama administration. But it's not all bleak for Democrats- just a few minutes ago we've been able to call New Mexico's Senate race for Martin Heinrich, the incumbent, who beat back Republican Governor Susana Martinez, a latina and two-term Governor who was cosnidered a tough challenge, and Libertarian Aubrey Dunn, Jr. who is the only statewide elected office-holder of the party right now, serving as Public Lands Commissioner, and attained a double-digits showing.

Bash: It's looking like a very hard battle for control of the Senate right now. Both parties have a real chance to be in control by the end of the night, and it's looking like the key races are in Arizona's special election, Florida, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all of which have very close races right now. These, and especially the latter three, are seats the Democrats didn't expect to have such hard races to defend, and are now in danger due to unexpected events like strong Republican recruits, the corruption scandal of New Jersey's Senator Bob Menendez and the tragic death of Bob Casey, Jr. from Pennsylvania. But at the same time, Democrats are looking increasingly likely to hold seats thought lost to them, like in Missouri and in West Virginia. So it all really hangs on these tight races.

King: Meanwhile, the House is looking equally contentious- Republicans aren't making the huge gainst some in the party were predicting, and right now it looks like some of the trends in favour of Democrats in suburbs are holding. We'll see if it remains the same when California's congressional districts start reporting. One curiousity, however, is that Democrats did get two gains tonight- in Kentucky's 6th congressional district, Democrat Jim Gray surprisingly unseated Republican incumbent Andy Barr, and in Florida's 27th congressional district, where Republican Miguel Díaz de la Portilla, who won a 2017 special election to replace Trade Representative Eleana Ros-Lehtinen in an upset, couldn't hold against the district's strong Democratic trend and was defeated by Democratic former Mayor of Miami Beach Philip Levine, who briefly ran for Governor earlier this year before dropping down to the House race, which seemed, and indeed was, more winnable. However, they aren't expected to make further gains. Another interesting tidbit is one particular race, in Kansas' 3rd congressional district- we can report that the battle between the Democratic incumbent, U.S. Rep. Sharice Davis, and Republican challenger Milton R. Wolf, a conservative commentator and President Obama's secon cousin once-removed, was just called for Davis, an important victory for Democrats and a historic one at that, as a lesbian Native-American wins reelection in such a conservative state.

Cooper: But right now, it's time to close the polls in a bunch of new states, a key moment tonight which will leave only Alaska with polls still open. In the Senate field, we can already report that Hawaii Senator Mazie Hirono, a Democrat, will win reelection. The race between Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington and former State Attorney General Rob McKenna is too early to call, but Cantwell is favoured. Meanwhile, California's Senate race, between Democratic Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti and businessman Tom Steyer, is too close to call, but we can already add that seat to the Democrats, too. As for gubernatorial races, we can report that in California, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom will defeat Republican businessman John Cox, winning the seat he craved for years, while in Hawaii, incumbent Democrat David Ige will easily win reelection. The race in Oregon, between Governor Kate Brown, a Democrat, and State Representative Knute Buheler, a moderate Republican, is too close to call.

Blitzer: But wait just a moment, because we had just now two consecutive gubernatorial calls, both in favour of Democrats. With California and Hawaii, his puts the President's party on the gubernaotrial map for the first time tonight, which must be a big relief for them- in New Mexico, we can be certain that U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham, despite some scandals, defeated her Republican colleague, U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce, as well as a strong challenge from former Governor Gary Johnson, running as a libertarian, and will give Democrats their first gubernatorial gain of the night. In New York State, meanwhile, we can finally call the race for incumbent Andrew Cuomo, who had a very tough night but in the end, defeated, Republican Chris Gibson and a myriad of strong third party candidates. If Cuomo was planning a fourth term, this definitely doesn't bode well for him, but he survives to remain in the role for four more years. Republicans shouldn't feel too bad about it, though- about ten mintues ago, we were also able to call the race in Nevada, where Senator Joe Heck defeated Democrat Steve Sisolak, retaining the governorship in Republican hands.

2018 U.S. Senate Election Map


Arizona Senate Election (42% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D)- 53.7%
Fmr. State Sen. Kelly Ward (R)- 45.9%

Arizona Senate Special Election (42% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)- 50.7%
U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R)- 49.0%

California Senate Election (1% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Mayor Eric Garcetti (D)- 54.4%
Hedge Fund Manager Tom Steyer (D)- 45.6%

Hawaii Senate Election (2% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Senator Mazie Hirono (D)*- 77.3% ✓
Mr. Jerry Coffee (R)- 18.2%

Florida Senate Election (73% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Bill Nelson (D)*- 49.8%
Fmr. Senator Marco Rubio (R)- 49.1%

Minnesota Senate Special Election (49% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. Senator Norm Coleman (R)- 51.3%
Senator Tina Smith (D)*- 48.3%

Missouri Senate Election (67% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Claire McCaskill (D)*- 45.2%
State Att. Gen. Josh Hawley (R)- 43.3%
Businessman Austin Petersen (L)- 11.2%

Montana Senate Election (24% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke (R)- 50.9%
Senator Jon Tester (D)*- 47.2%

Nevada Senate Election (23% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
Governor Brian Sandoval (R)- 53.1% ✓
Fmr. County Commissioner Rory Reid (D)- 42.7%

New Jersey Senate Election (59% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Bob Menendez (D)*- 49.1%
State Sen. Thomas Kean Jr. (R)- 48.7%

New Mexico Senate Election (51% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Senator Martin Heinrich (D)*- 48.3% ✓
Governor Susana Martinez (R)- 40.6%
Public Lands Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, Jr. (L)- 10.9%

North Dakota Senate Election (50% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R)- 51.0%
Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D)*- 48.9%

Ohio Senate Election (71% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor John Kasich (R)- 49.8%
Senator Sherrod Brown (D)*- 49.5%

Pennsylvania Senate Election (63% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. Governor Tom Ridge (R)- 49.2%
Governor Tom Wolf (D)- 49.0%

Washington Senate Election (2% Reporting)- TOO EARLY TO CALL
Senator Maria Cantwell (D)*- 55.2%
Fmr. State Att. Gen. Rob McKenna (R)- 44.8%

West Virginia Senate Election (67% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. Senator Carte Goodwin (D)- 46.9%
Businessman Don Blankenship (R)- 45.4%
U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins (Write-in)- 6.1%

2018 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections Map


California Gubernatorial Election (1% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D)- 64.2% ✓
Businessman John Cox (R)- 35.8%

Colorado Gubernatorial Election (51% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Jared Polis (D)- 52.0%
State Treasurer Walker Stapelton (R)- 47.1%

Connecticut Gubernatorial Election (68% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Mayor Erin Stewart (R)- 50.8%
State Sen. Edward M. Kennedy Jr. (D)- 49.1%

Georgia Gubernatorial Election (74% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D)- 49.9%
Businessman Herman Cain (R)- 49.3%

Hawaii Gubernatorial Election (2% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Governor David Ige (D)*- 69.8% ✓
Fmr. State Sen. John Carroll (R)- 24.8%

Illinois Gubernatorial Election (58% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor Bruce Rauner (R)*- 44.4%
Businessman J.B. Pritzker (D)- 43.4%
Attorney Rich Whitney (G)- 11.9%

Iowa Gubernatorial Election (24% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R)- 48.8%
Union Leader Cathy Glasson (D)- 48.5%

Kansas Gubernatorial Election (65% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Businessman Greg Orman\Fmr. Sec. of Agriculture Josh Svaty (I\D)- 49.0%
Sec. of State Kris Kobach (R)- 47.3%

Maine Gubernatorial Election (64% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Activist Betsy Sweet (D)- 42.1%
U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R)- 40.2%
State Treasurer Terry Hayes (I)- 14.2%
Fmr. Mayor John Jenkins (I)- 3.5%

Michigan Gubernatorial Election (66% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. State Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D)- 51.7%
State Att. Gen. Bill Schutte (R)- 48.0%

Minnesota Gubernatorial Election (49% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. Governor Tim Pawlenty (R)- 50.9%
State Rep. Erin Murphy (D)- 47.1%

Nevada Gubernatorial Election (23% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
Senator Joe Heck (R)- 52.8% ✓
County Commissioner Steve Sisolak (D)*- 42.6%

New Hampshire Gubernatorial Election (70% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. MA Senator Scott Brown (R)- 50.3%
Governor Colin Van Ostern (D)*- 49.1%

New Mexico Gubernatorial Election (51% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC GAIN
U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)- 43.9% ✓
U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce (R)- 32.6%
Fmr. Governor Gary Johnson- 23.4%

New York Gubernatorial Election (56% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Governor Andrew Cuomo (D\WE\IN)*- 33.1% ✓
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Chris Gibson (R\CON\REF)- 25.4%
Activist Cynthia Nixon (WF)- 17.6%
Fmr. Mayor Stephanie Miner (I\SAM)- 15.2%
Businessman Larry Sharpe (L)- 6.5%
Mr. Howie Hawkins (G)- 2.0%
Mr. Jimmy McMillan (RITDH)- 0.2%

Oregon Gubernatorial Election (2% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor Kate Brown (D)*- 51.6%
State Rep. Knute Buheler (R)- 46.7%

Rhode Island Gubernatorial Election (68% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Mayor Allan Fung (R)- 42.5%
Governor Gina Raimondo (D)*- 35.7%
Fmr. Governor Lincoln Chafee (M)- 21.3%

Wicsonsin Gubernatorial Election (47% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Ron Kind (D)- 50.7%
Governor Scott Walker (R)*- 48.6%
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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*****
Posts: 11,441
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.48

« Reply #77 on: August 16, 2018, 02:51:49 PM »
« Edited: August 17, 2018, 02:43:17 PM by Parrotguy »

MIDTERM NIGHT, Part VIII


Cooper: ...And another major Senate call right now, following our call of the Washington Senate race for incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell some fifteen minutes ago. We can finally confirm that a Democrat will occupy at least one of Arizona's seats for the first time since 1995, as U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema will defeat firebrand conservative former State Senator Kelly Ward. This was a widely-expected pickup for Democrats as Ward, who's very conservative and peddled conspiracy theories, is unpopular amongst moderates and independents, and indeed, Sinema will win by a comfortable margin.

Bash: This is a bright spot Democrats have to be relieved to finally receive tonight, after in the past hour, we've been able to call the Senate race in North Dakota for Republican U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer, defeating Democrat Heidi Heitkamp despite an admirable campaign and her best efforts. She was the most pro-gun Democrat in the Senate, but it wasn't enough. And... wait, hold on, another call we can make right now in the Senate, and a very worrying one for Democrats- in Minnesota, incumbent Senator Tina Smith, who was appointed by Governor Mark Dayton after former Senator Al Franken was forced to resign, lost her reelection bid to former Senator Norm Coleman, a fairly moderate Republican who held the seat before being defeated by Franken in 2008. This has to hurt for Democrats- if not for Franken's scandal, they'd still be holding this seat tonight.

Blitzer: And finally, just as we're preparing for the last poll closing tonight, in Alaska, I'm receiving reports that we can call California's Senate race- billionaire, environmentalist hedge-fund manager Tom Steyer was defeated in his bid for the Senate, and Eric Garcetti, the Mayor of Los Angeles, will win the Senate seat by a large margin. Garcetti was rumoured as a possible candidate for President in 2020, but now will likely opt to stay in the Senate for some more years of experience.

Tapper: And as the polls just closed in Alaska, we can say that the gubernatorial race, between former State Senator Mike Dunleavy, the Republican, and Independent incumbent Bill Walker, who also won the Democratic nomination and has a Democratic Lieutenant Governor, is too close to call. Speaking of gubernatorial races, we've been able to call quite a few in the past hour- in Colorado, Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Polis, a popular figure in the state, defeated Republican State Treasurer Walker Stapelton, a relative of the Bushes, by a strong margin, and in Michigan, Democratic former State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer was elected to the governorship, defeating State Attorney General Bill Schutte. Additionally, Oregon Governor Kate Brown managed to win reelection against her moderate opponent, State Rep. Knute Buheler. With these wins, Democrats retained two governorship and gained one. But it was not all great for Democrats- in Rhode Island, we've managed to call the gubernatorial race for Republican Allan Fung, who will become the state's first Asian American Governor and defeat incumbent Democrat Gina Raimondo, who has very low favourables, and former Governor Lincoln Chafee, who was running on the moderate ticket. This is another gain for Republicans.

Cooper: But hold on just a moment, because we have yet another call to make. In Minnesota, former Governor Tim Pawlenty will complete his comeback successfully, and defeat State Senator Erin Murphy, the Democratic nominee, who was fairly strong in urban areas but performed poorly in the rural ones, and was bogged down by the national environment. Thus, Republicans regain the Governor's Mansion in St. Paul.

2018 U.S. Senate Election Map


Arizona Senate Election (63% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC GAIN
U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D)- 54.5% ✓
Fmr. State Sen. Kelly Ward (R)- 45.1%

Arizona Senate Special Election (63% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)- 50.3%
U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R)- 49.5%

California Senate Election (21% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Mayor Eric Garcetti (D)- 58.2% ✓
Hedge Fund Manager Tom Steyer (D)- 41.8%

Florida Senate Election (91% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Bill Nelson (D)*- 49.8%
Fmr. Senator Marco Rubio (R)- 49.4%

Minnesota Senate Special Election (72% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN GAIN
Fmr. Senator Norm Coleman (R)- 52.5% ✓
Senator Tina Smith (D)*- 47.0%

Missouri Senate Election (88% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Claire McCaskill (D)*- 45.7%
State Att. Gen. Josh Hawley (R)- 43.6%
Businessman Austin Petersen (L)- 10.4%

Montana Senate Election (46% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke (R)- 51.0%
Senator Jon Tester (D)*- 47.0%

New Jersey Senate Election (76% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Bob Menendez (D)*- 49.0%
State Sen. Thomas Kean Jr. (R)- 48.9%

North Dakota Senate Election (71% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN GAIN
U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R)- 52.9% ✓
Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D)*- 46.5%

Ohio Senate Election (93% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor John Kasich (R)- 49.7%
Senator Sherrod Brown (D)*- 49.6%

Pennsylvania Senate Election (84% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. Governor Tom Ridge (R)- 50.6%
Governor Tom Wolf (D)- 47.7%

Washington Senate Election (27% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Senator Maria Cantwell (D)*- 55.8% ✓
Fmr. State Att. Gen. Rob McKenna (R)- 44.2%

West Virginia Senate Election (86% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. Senator Carte Goodwin (D)- 47.2%
Businessman Don Blankenship (R)- 45.2%
U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins (Write-in)- 5.9%

2018 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections Map


Alaska Gubernatorial Election (1% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor Bill Walker\Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott (I\D)- 51.0%
Fmr. State Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R)- 43.6%
Ms. Cean Stevens- 5.4%

Colorado Gubernatorial Election (75% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
U.S. Rep. Jared Polis (D)- 53.7% ✓
State Treasurer Walker Stapelton (R)- 45.5%

Connecticut Gubernatorial Election (91% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Mayor Erin Stewart (R)- 50.6%
State Sen. Edward M. Kennedy Jr. (D)- 49.3%

Georgia Gubernatorial Election (92% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D)- 50.0%
Businessman Herman Cain (R)- 49.4%

Illinois Gubernatorial Election (77% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor Bruce Rauner (R)*- 44.3%
Businessman J.B. Pritzker (D)- 43.2%
Attorney Rich Whitney (G)- 12.1%

Iowa Gubernatorial Election (46% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Union Leader Cathy Glasson (D)- 49.0%
Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R)- 48.4%

Kansas Gubernatorial Election (86% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Businessman Greg Orman\Fmr. Sec. of Agriculture Josh Svaty (I\D)- 49.2%
Sec. of State Kris Kobach (R)- 47.2%

Maine Gubernatorial Election (88% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Activist Betsy Sweet (D)- 42.3%
U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R)- 40.1%
State Treasurer Terry Hayes (I)- 14.2%
Fmr. Mayor John Jenkins (I)- 3.4%

Michigan Gubernatorial Election (88% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC GAIN
Fmr. State Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D)- 52.3% ✓
State Att. Gen. Bill Schutte (R)- 47.5%

Minnesota Gubernatorial Election (72% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN GAIN
Fmr. Governor Tim Pawlenty (R)- 51.4% ✓
State Rep. Erin Murphy (D)- 46.5%

New Hampshire Gubernatorial Election (92% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. MA Senator Scott Brown (R)- 50.7%
Governor Colin Van Ostern (D)*- 48.6%

Oregon Gubernatorial Election (25% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Governor Kate Brown (D)*- 54.3% ✓
State Rep. Knute Buheler (R)- 45.1%

Rhode Island Gubernatorial Election (91% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN GAIN
Mayor Allan Fung (R)- 43.2% ✓
Governor Gina Raimondo (D)*- 35.4%
Fmr. Governor Lincoln Chafee (M)- 20.8%

Wicsonsin Gubernatorial Election (68% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Ron Kind (D)- 50.7%
Governor Scott Walker (R)*- 48.7%
Logged
America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,441
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.48

« Reply #78 on: August 17, 2018, 03:16:10 PM »
« Edited: August 17, 2018, 03:26:42 PM by Parrotguy »

MIDTERM NIGHT, Part VIII


Blitzer: As the final prescints in many close races report, we're getting ready for a barrage of major calls. Soon enough, we should be able to know which party will dominate the next congress and many of the governorships. Already, in the past minutes we've been able to call two Senate races- in Pennsylvania, we have a major upset as Governor Tom Wolf, fairly popular and expected to win this race, will lose to former Governor Tom Ridge, a moderate Republican who will now become the next Senator from Pennsylvania and pick up one seat for Republicans. At the same time, Senator Claire McCaskill in Missouri did the impossible and retained the seat for Democrats, defeating State Attorney General Josh Hawley, who ran an undisciplined campaign and was bogged down by Libertarian candidate Austin Petersen, who was the party's Presidential running mate in 2016 and surprisingly came second to Hawley in the Republican Senate primary.

Cooper: There were also several calls in the gubernatorial field. In New Hampshire, we've been able to project that former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown will unseat Democratic Governor Colin Van Ostern, a Republican gain and a surprising political comeback for someone who many assumed was finished. But in Maine, Democrats can smile as they achieved a pickup, with progressive activist Betsy Sweet defeating Republican U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin, who was bogged down by an overly-conservative voting record and the unpopular Governor Paul LePage, who handily lost a Senate race to Senator Angus King earlier tonight. And finally, in a major call, we could project that the ultra-conservative, controversial Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach lost his gubernatorial bid, defeated by a joint Independent-Democratic ticket of businessman Greg Orman and former State Agriculture Secretary Josh Svaty, who joined forces to rally moderate Republicans and Democrats against Kobach. This is technically not a pickup for any party, but Democrats were definitely hoping for this result.

Bash: Right. And in the House of Representative, we still cannot call it for any party, but we can say that it's going to be close. In the Senate, Democrats seem increasingly optimistic as they already gained one seat and lost four, and can afford to lose three more to keep control of the higher congressional chamber. With leads in Arizona, Florida, New Jersey and West Virginia, it appears like a very hard job for Republicans, but the results are still inconclusive. We still cannot be sure of the political consequences tonight will have, but either way, they'll be major.

Tapper: Hold on just a moment, Dana, because we have another very important call to make. In West Virginia, former Senator Carte Goodwin, a young, liberal Democrat will shockingly be elected to the Senate in deeply conservative West Virginia, after Republicans made a major blunder by nominating Don Blankenship by a narrow plurality. Blankenship, a convicted felon who was accused of causing the deaths of many miners in his company, is deeply unpopular in the state and triggered a write-in campaign by his former primary rival, U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins who took a large number of Republican votes. Thus, Goodwin, whose campaign was well-funded and disciplined and who campaigned with figures such as Senator Joe Manchin and former Senator Jay Rockfeller, will be elected to the Senate in a key victory for Democrats.

Blitzer: At the same time, we have an important call to make in the gubernatorial battle. In the strongly liberal state of Connecticut, New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart, a very moderate Republican, will win the governorship against State Sen. Edward Kennedy, son of the late Senator Ted Kennedy, who ran a fairly weak campaign and was hurt by both the national climate and the unpopularity of retiring Governor Dan Malloy, a Democrat. This means that Republicans will hold five of the governorships in New England, with Democrats holding only Maine.

King: Right now, we're following one partiuclar gubernatorial race very closely- in Georgia, former State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, an African American liberal woman, is right now shockingly slightly above the 50% thershold to avoid a runoff. We can already say that Republican nominee Herman Cain, who ran a clumsy and controversial campaign, and was dogged by sexual assault accusations from the past, won't be elected tonight, but whether he can keep Abrams below the 50% and force a runoff which he might very well win remains to be seen. as the last prescints from Georgia report, we'll be able to call the result of this very exciting gubernatorial election.

2018 U.S. Senate Election Map


Arizona Senate Special Election (72% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)- 50.4%
U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R)- 49.3%

Florida Senate Election (98% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Bill Nelson (D)*- 49.7%
Fmr. Senator Marco Rubio (R)- 49.5%

Missouri Senate Election (95% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Senator Claire McCaskill (D)*- 45.3% ✓
State Att. Gen. Josh Hawley (R)- 44.1%
Businessman Austin Petersen (L)- 10.2%

Montana Senate Election (58% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke (R)- 51.6%
Senator Jon Tester (D)*- 46.5%

New Jersey Senate Election (87% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Bob Menendez (D)*- 48.9%
State Sen. Thomas Kean Jr. (R)- 48.8%

Ohio Senate Election (98% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor John Kasich (R)- 49.8%
Senator Sherrod Brown (D)*- 49.6%

Pennsylvania Senate Election (94% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN GAIN
Fmr. Governor Tom Ridge (R)- 50.5% ✓
Governor Tom Wolf (D)- 47.9%

West Virginia Senate Election (96% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Fmr. Senator Carte Goodwin (D)- 46.7% ✓
Businessman Don Blankenship (R)- 45.7%
U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins (Write-in)- 5.8%

2018 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections Map


Alaska Gubernatorial Election (22% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor Bill Walker\Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott (I\D)- 50.4%
Fmr. State Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R)- 44.5%
Ms. Cean Stevens- 5.1%

Connecticut Gubernatorial Election (99% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN GAIN
Mayor Erin Stewart (R)- 50.8% ✓
State Sen. Edward M. Kennedy Jr. (D)- 49.0%

Georgia Gubernatorial Election (99% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D)- 50.0%
Businessman Herman Cain (R)- 49.5%

Illinois Gubernatorial Election (86% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor Bruce Rauner (R)*- 44.2%
Businessman J.B. Pritzker (D)- 43.3%
Attorney Rich Whitney (G)- 12.2%

Iowa Gubernatorial Election (59% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R)- 51.5%
Union Leader Cathy Glasson (D)- 46.8%

Kansas Gubernatorial Election (97% Reporting)- INDEPENDENT GAIN
Businessman Greg Orman\Fmr. Sec. of Agriculture Josh Svaty (I\D)- 49.1% ✓
Sec. of State Kris Kobach (R)- 47.0%

Maine Gubernatorial Election (96% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC GAIN
Activist Betsy Sweet (D)- 42.8% ✓
U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R)- 40.2%
State Treasurer Terry Hayes (I)- 13.8%
Fmr. Mayor John Jenkins (I)- 3.1%

New Hampshire Gubernatorial Election (99% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN GAIN
Fmr. MA Senator Scott Brown (R)- 50.5% ✓
Governor Colin Van Ostern (D)*- 48.9%

Wicsonsin Gubernatorial Election (77% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Ron Kind (D)- 50.3%
Governor Scott Walker (R)*- 49.1%
Logged
America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,441
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -3.48

« Reply #79 on: August 18, 2018, 03:14:35 AM »
« Edited: August 18, 2018, 03:21:33 AM by Parrotguy »

There got to be a lot of Recounts. Many Races within 0.5 of 1 Percent. Some even 0.2

A few races will indeed be tight, but all things considered, a margin of 0.1 or 0.2 is usually too much for recounts to make any difference. So there might be some, but I can confirm right now that they won't actually change any results. In any case, the close races might yet shift.

All things considered, this isn't too bad a midterm for the Democats.

Yep. It was definitely R-favoured, like in the governorships and in some Senate races like MN, PA and maybe more, but all things considered, it looks like Obama might just have his first not-disastrous midterm. More on that later- after all the results are in there will be a few posts about the political significance of this midterm election. Then, I'll shift attention to my other TL.
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« Reply #80 on: August 19, 2018, 05:59:09 AM »
« Edited: August 19, 2018, 07:10:00 AM by Parrotguy »

MIDTERM NIGHT, Part IX


Tapper: Hold everything, we have a very important projection to make right now. In Florida, Senator Bill Nelson overcame a large hurdle and very narrowly defeated former Senator Marco Rubio, who burned through Governor Rick Scott in the Republican primary in an attempt to make a comeback to the Senate, but will now be stopped by the incumbent Democrat, who's popular in the state. This definitely harms any future Presidential ambitions Rubio might have, after three consecutive losses in a Preisdential primary and two Senate races. Most experts agree that this victory can be attributed mainly to Senator Nelson's popularity in the state, Rubio's weak campaign and debate performances and the bitter divisions created by the primary between him and Governor Scott, after which the Governor gave a very lukewarm and cold endorsement of the former Senator, who hen ever liked. This countered the national environment and a lackluster campaign by Nelson.

Blitzer: And that means that there is a major call we can make- the Democratic Party will remain in control of the Senate. Even if Republicans win in all the outstanding races, Democrats will still have 50 seats which, with Vice President Baldwin's tie-breaking vote, gives them a majority. At the same time, there is another call we can make- in Montana, Republicans get a bright spot, as U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke has unseated the incumbent Democrat, Senator Jon Tester.  It's the third conservative-state Democrat we see unseated this year.

Bash: So right now, we're watching three remaining Senate races- in Arizona's special election for the ill John McCain's seat, with over 80% prescints reporting, U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, a young, hispanic veteran from the Democratic Party, is leading U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, a former fighting jet pilot who was forced to tack right in the primary to defeat a challenge from former Sherriff Joe Arpaio, an immigration hardliner, and is now haunted by it. Arizona is a state trending left, but if Gallego wins it'll be a shocking turning of tables- the state will go from being represented by two Republicans, right now Senators Joe Flake and Cindy McCain, to two Democrats. Another race is in New Jersey, where Democrat Bob Menendez, dogged by a corruption scandal, is under the threat of losing to moderate State Senator Thomas Kean Jr., son of the former Senator of the same name, in this Democratic-leaning state. And lastly, the race in Ohio is shaping up to be the closest this year- Governor John Kasich, a Republican, has the narrowest of leads over incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown right now, with over 99% of the prescints reporting. We should be able to make a projection soon, but this might be going to a recount.

Cooper: Wait a moment, we have a key call to make right now. In Georgia, where we've been watching the final results slowly trickle in, we can now confidently call the election for Democrat Stacey Abrams- a historic victory, as she becomes the first black woman to win a Governorship, and in the conservative, southern Georgia at that. The liberal Abrams was defintely helped by the countless controveries coming from Republican Herman Cain, but you have to give her a congratulations for a very strong campaign with a disciplined message and a great ground game.

Blitzer: And speaking of gubernatorial races, this is good news for Democrats after we were previously able to call two new races for Republican candidates- in Iowa, after a scare given to her by progressive union leader Cathy Glasson, Republican incumbent Kim Reynolds will win reelection. In any case, the very strong showing will definitely mean that Glasson's political career is off to a good start, with a possible run for the House in the cards in 2020 if U.S. Rep. Dave Loesback, a Democrat, decides to retire, or even a run for the Senate against Republican incumbent Joni Ernest in 2020. Additionally, we were able to call the election in Illinois. Governor Bruce Rauner, a Republican, will surprisingly win reelection. After a badly-ran campaign and being left for dead, Rauner managed to use the national climate, the numerous controversies and corruption accusations against Democratic billionaire J.B. Pritzker, and the strong left-wing campaign of attorney Rich Whitney under the Green Party banner, Rauner succeeded and will win another term in office.

2018 U.S. Senate Election Map


Arizona Senate Special Election (81% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)- 50.7%
U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R)- 49.1%

Florida Senate Election (99% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Senator Bill Nelson (D)*- 49.9% ✓
Fmr. Senator Marco Rubio (R)- 49.3%

Montana Senate Election (68% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN GAIN
U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke (R)- 52.8% ✓
Senator Jon Tester (D)*- 45.6%

New Jersey Senate Election (93% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
State Sen. Thomas Kean Jr. (R)- 49.0%
Senator Bob Menendez (D)*- 48.7%

Ohio Senate Election (99% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor John Kasich (R)- 49.7%
Senator Sherrod Brown (D)*- 49.6%

2018 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections Map


Alaska Gubernatorial Election (43% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor Bill Walker\Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott (I\D)- 49.7%
Fmr. State Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R)- 45.0%
Ms. Cean Stevens- 5.3%

Georgia Gubernatorial Election (100% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC GAIN
Fmr. State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D)- 50.1% ✓
Businessman Herman Cain (R)- 49.3%

Illinois Gubernatorial Election (95% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
Governor Bruce Rauner (R)*- 44.4% ✓
Businessman J.B. Pritzker (D)- 43.2%
Attorney Rich Whitney (G)- 12.1%

Iowa Gubernatorial Election (70% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R)- 51.4% ✓
Union Leader Cathy Glasson (D)- 47.3%

Wicsonsin Gubernatorial Election (89% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Ron Kind (D)- 50.5%
Governor Scott Walker (R)*- 49.0%
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« Reply #81 on: August 19, 2018, 08:01:24 AM »
« Edited: August 20, 2018, 10:53:49 AM by Parrotguy »

MIDTERM NIGHT, Part X


Blitzer: And we can make a big call right now- Democrats will hold the House of Representatives. With their victory in the Senate, it means that President Obama will be able to keep governing with a Democratic-controlled congress, a Democratic trifecta. It was a hard battle in the House, and the end results is likely to have a close chamber- right now, we're projecting 220 seats for the Democrats, 210 seats for Republicans, and 5 seats still too close to call. This means Republicans have gained nine seats so far, while Democrats gained three, making it a net gain of six for the GOP, but three of the outstanding races are right now leaning towards them and one is a pure tossup, while the last leans Democratic. We'll see what happens.

Cooper: Indeed, but there's no time to analyze this, because there's another major call we can make right now- in Ohio's tight Senate race, Governor John Kasich will gain the seat for Republicans, defeating popular incumbent Sherrod Brown. This is a very close call, and Brown can ask for a recount, but we're comfortable projecting that Kasich will win with almost all prescints in. It's a difference of a few thousand votes, which makes it hard for a recount to overturn. And... hold on, I'm getting reports that we can also call the special Senate race in Arizona- despite losing Brown, Democrats can smile because U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego will win the seat for them, joining his colleague U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema to, starting from January, make the first pair of Democratic Senators from Arizona since 1953. This leaves only the Senate race in New Jersey to be determined.

Tapper: And yet another call we can make right now, this time in the gubernatorial races- independent Alaska Governor Bill Walker will be reelected, defeating Republican State Senator Mike Dunleavy. The consolidation of the Democratic and moderate vote around Walker like in 2014, as well as Dunleavy's fairly weak campaign and the strong Libertarian run by Ms. Cean Stevens, a small business owner, proved to be enough to propel Walker over weak approval ratings and the national environment.

King: You know, over all, this isn't looking like a very bad midterm for Democrats- the national House vote, for example, is very close, with only the narrowest of Republican leads overall. Looking at many of these results in the House, Senate and to a smaller extent the gubernatorial races, many of the 2016 trends remained steadfast- Democrats overpeformed in the suburbs, except when facing moderate Republicans strong in these areas, and minority and female turnout were very high, showing that President Obama signing many progressive bills managed to keep the base enthusiastic.

Bash: President Obama will probably go to sleep this morning feeling satisfied. But before that, we have our last Senate call to make- in New Jersey, Senator Bob Menendez will lose reelection, leading to the victory of Thomas Kean Jr., yet another moderate Republican Senator. The corruption allegations, as well as a weak, overconfident campaign seemed to be Menendez's undoing. The consequences of so many moderates elected tonight still remain to be seen, but the dynamics in congress in the next two years will be interesting.

Cooper: And now, finally, we have our last call for tonight- a major upset in Wisconsin's gubernatorial race, as U.S. Rep. Ron Kind will unseat Republican Governor Scott Walker, a controversial figure strongly disliked by Democrats for his anti-union policies. Walker was dragged down by low approval ratings and the strong campaign ran by Kind, who had high and positive name recognition from his close loss at the 2017 special Senate election, and was joined by figures such as Senator Russ Feingold and Vice President Tammy Baldwin on the campaign trail. This is a particularly sweet victory for many Democrats, and a good way for them to close this overall mixed night for them. And this is it for our midterm election night coverage. Thank you all for tuning in!

2018 U.S. Senate Election Map


Arizona Senate Special Election (92% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC GAIN
U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)- 51.2% ✓
U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R)- 48.6%

New Jersey Senate Election (97% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN GAIN
State Sen. Thomas Kean Jr. (R)- 49.4% ✓
Senator Bob Menendez (D)*- 47.9%

Ohio Senate Election (100% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN GAIN
Governor John Kasich (R)- 49.8% ✓
Senator Sherrod Brown (D)*- 49.6%

2018 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections Map


Alaska Gubernatorial Election (67% Reporting)- INDEPENDENT HOLD
Governor Bill Walker\Lt. Gov. Byron Mallott (I\D)- 50.2% ✓
Fmr. State Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R)- 44.7%
Ms. Cean Stevens- 5.1%

Wicsonsin Gubernatorial Election (98% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC GAIN
U.S. Rep. Ron Kind (D)- 51.0% ✓
Governor Scott Walker (R)*- 48.6%
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« Reply #82 on: August 19, 2018, 09:08:31 AM »


Well, not really. Republicans still had a net gain of five Senate seats, which is quite a lot, and they did very well in governoships considering they were defending so many. So I'd say it's a Republican midterm, but not a wave.
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« Reply #83 on: August 20, 2018, 12:28:07 PM »

November 7th, 2018

THE 2018 MIDTERM ELECTIONS: SPECIAL COVERAGE

2018 U.S. Senate Election Map


Composition of the U.S. Senate:

Democratic Majority- 51 Seats (Leader: Chuck Schumer)
Democrats: 49 Seats  (-5)
Independents (Caucusing with the Democrats): 2 Seats  (+-0)


Republican Minority- 49 Seats (Leader: Mitch McConnell)
Republicans: 49 Seats  (+5)


Freshman Senator Class, 2019: Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Eric Garcetti (D-CA), Todd Young (R-IN), Norm Coleman (R-MN), Ryan Zinke (R-MT), Brian Sandoval (R-NV), Thomas Kean Jr. (R-NJ), Kevin Cramer (R-ND), John Kasich (R-OH), Tom Ridge (R-PA), Bill Haslam (R-TN), Jon Huntsman (R-UT), Carte Goodwin (D-WV).

The return of the Rockfeller Republican? As moderate Democrats lose their races, Republicans see a moderate majority in their freshman class



PHILADELPHIA - The Senate elections last night produced some interesting results. While Republicans gained seven seats and Democrats gained Arizona's two seats- a Republican net gain of five- the Democrats retained control of the Senate 51-49. But one of the big stories produced last night was exactly which Republicans won- while far-right figures like Don Blankenship in West Virginia and Kelly Ward in Arizona, or mainstream conservatives like Josh Hawley in Missouri, Marco Rubio in Florida and Martha McSally in Arizona, could not win their elections, moderate and centrist Republicans dominated throughout the nation, winning upset after upset. This includes the surprising victories of Thomas Kean Jr. in New Jersey and Tom Ridge in Pennsylvania, both defeating Democrats initially thought fairly safe, Norm Coleman in Minnesota, who won his old seat with the promise of bipartisanship, Brian Sandoval in Nevada and Jon Huntsman in Utah, two very moderate Republicans popular in their states, and possibly John Kasich in Ohio, who shockingly defeated a strong incumbent and is considered a conservative who turned relatively moderate in the modern Republican Party. Even Bill Haslam in Tennessee and Todd Young in Indiana are considered conservatives opposed to reactionism. This lead many to speculate that this might just be the return of the "Rockfeller Republicans"- a moderate, often centrist brand of politicians who are usually socially liberal. Others claim that this is merely a fluke caused by circumstances, and that the Republican Party is still the one that nominated Donald Trump in 2016. In any case, what's for sure is that with these six members joining their moderate Senate colleagues, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, and with a close split in the higher chamber, the centrist wing of the Republican Party is going to have an outsized importance.

Meanwhile, in the Democratic Party, it seemed like a reverse trend occured. They lost three of their most moderate members, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Jon Tester of Montana, in the same night, and another one, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), was replaced by a relatively liberal Democrat. One Democrat who did survive, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, is to the left of these four. Heitkamp, Donnelly, Manchin and, to a lesser extent, Tester, voted against the President on key issues- Heitkamp voted against the Save Our Children Act and the Environmental Protection and Clean Energy Act, trying to show support for gun rights and the fossil fuel industry; Donnelly, as well as Heitkamp, voted against the Guaranteed Healthcare Act; and both of them, as well as Manchin and McCaskill, voted against the TPP. But while Heitkamp and Donnelly lost handily, McCaskill managed to survive. This means that, in the next six years, Democrats will have much less dissent from the right of their ranks, with the most conservative members remaining being Senators Evan Bayh (D-IN), Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and, to a lesser extent, Carte Goodwin (D-WV).



Composition of the U.S. House of Representatives:
Democratic Party: 221  (-10)
Republcian Party: 214  (+10)

Upcoming House Leadership:
House Speaker: Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
House Majority Leader: Steve Israel (D-NY)
House Majority Whip: TBD

House Minority Leader: Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)
House Minority Whip: Steve Scalise (R-LA)

The sweet end of the first woman Speaker- Pelosi announces 2020 retirement after Demorats narrowly retain control of the House



WASHINGTON, D.C. - After a very close and tense night, Demcorats managed to narrowly retain the House of Representatives, with a slim eight-person majority. The President's Party made three gains tonight, susprisingly- Democrat Jim Gray, former Mayor of Lexington, defeated U.S. Rep. Andy Barr in Kentucky's sixth congressional district; former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine defeated U.S. Rep. Miguel Díaz de la Portilla in Florida's 27th district; and finally, veteran Jared Golden won the congressional race in Maine's 2nd district, defeating Republican Kevin Raye, former State Senate President, in a very close race. But at the same time, Republicans gained thirteen seats, making it a net gain of ten. This is very good news for Democrats, who'll continue to control congress, and this morning Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a surprise announcement- this will be her last term. Ruling the Democratic majority, it's a sweet way for the first female Speaker to end her career, but also sparked an early battle for the future leadership of the caucus. It's too early to tell who's interested and can win at the moment, but according to early estimations, likely candidates include House Majority Leader Steve Israel (D-NY), U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján (D-NM), Assistant Leader Jim Clyburn (D-SC), Vice Chair of the Caucus Linda Sánchez (D-CA) and others. Meanwhile, there's a nother battle brewing- with the retirement of Majority Whip Steny Hoyer, a battle has already commenced for his role. Leading contenders include  U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA), U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA), U.S. Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-LA), U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-MI) and U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI).

On the Republican side, battles were actually averted since U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan was forced to retire due to scandal, and former House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy sailed ot the position of caucus leader, succeeding the retied former Speaker Paul Ryan. U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA), thought to be a challenge, opted to remain Whip.

2018 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections Map


State of the U.S. Governorships:
Republican Party- 30  (-1)
Democratic Party- 19  (+-0)
Independents- 2  (+1)


Upcoming Governors, 2019: Gavin Newsom (D-CA), Jared Polis (D-CO),, Erin Stewart (R-CT), Mike Huckabee (R-FL), Stacey Abrams (D-GA), Brad Little (R-ID), Kim Reynolds (R-IA), Greg Orman (I-KS), Betsy Sweet (D-ME), Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), Joe Heck (R-NV), Scott Brown (R-NH), Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM), Mike DeWine (R-OH), Scott Pruit (R-OK), Charlie Dent (R-PA), Allan Fung (R-RI), Trey Gowdy (R-SC), Kristi Noem (R-SD), Bob Corker (R-TN), Ron Kind (D-WI), Mark Gordon (R-WY).

Republicans win big in governorships, but lose key races



NASHVILLE - Tennessee Governor Bill Haslam has quite a few reasons to smile this morning. He won a Senate seat last night, ensuring the longevity of his political career, and he also happens to be the Chair of the Republican Governor's Association, leading the wildly successful GOP gubernatorial campaign arm in the 2018 midterms. With his party controlling 26 of the 36 seats that were up last night, he managed to not only prevent many losses, but also helped his party make many gains, making it by far the most successful part of the midterms for the GOP. The party retained seats in swing states such as Florida, Ohio and Nevada, and gained ones in the Democratic-leaning states of Connecticut, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. However, not all was bright- the Republicans blundered in Georgia and Kansas, two conservative-leaning states where they nominated controversial and unpopular candidates in the form of Herman Cain and Kris Kobach, leading to the elections of liberal Democrat Stacey Abrams in Georgia and moderate Independent Greg Orman in Kansas. And in Wisconsin, Governor Scott Walker was defeated by Ron Kind, a very pleasant surprise for Demcorats. It was, indeed, quite an odd election night, that produced a large number of unusual figures who will be elected Governors- Abrams and Orman are ones, but so are blasts from the past such as former Arkansas Governor and 2008 Republican Presidential runner-up Mike Huckabee, who won the Governor's Mansion in his new home of Florida, former Governor and 2012 Presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty, who regained his old job in Minnesota, and former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, elected in an upset in 2010 as a moderate and defeated by Elizabeth Warren in 2012, who will now be the next New Hampshire Governor. Other interesting occurences are two Senators elected Governor- Bob Corker in Tennesee and Joe Heck in Nevada- and the fact that Maine, of all places, will be the only New England state to have a Demcoratic Governor.

The 2018 Midterms- compared to 2010 and 2014, a mere flesh wound for President Obama



CHICAGO - All in all, President Barack Obama can be happy about his party's showing in the third midterm of his Presidency. Despite a bad map, his party didn't suffer disastrous losses, suggesting he's quite popular, and with favourable maps ahead in 2020 and 2022, Democrats can be encouraged. He retained his majorities in both Houses, and the election of many moderate Republicans to the Senate makes it easier to pass his agenda than the numbers would suggest. After accomplishments on healthcare and gun control during the first half of the term, Obama reportedly plans to focus on areas where more agreement could be found with centrists in the next half, such as immigration reform, LGBTQ rights, trade and the environment. It looks like the Obama agenda can continue, but at the mean time, with the President reportedly very unlikely to run in 2020 for a fourth term, the Presidential race on both side appears to be heating up. Democrats are likely encouraged about their chances for a historic fourth victory after the midterms, and Republicans are fired up and ready to reclaim the White House. The fields on both sides are thus expected to be crowded, and polls suggest an uncertain picture, with Vice President Baldwin, Senator Sanders and Secretary of State biden the perliminary Democratic frontrunners, with prominent Obama administration figures also in a strong position, and the Republican field is even more confused, especially with the elections of Kasich and Huntsman to the Senate virtually eliminating them as possible Presidential candidates, and the losses of former Senator Marco Rubio and Governor Scott Walker making them very unlikely, too.

Who would you vote for if the 2020 Republican Presidential Primary in your state was held today?
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)- 20%
Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ)- 15%
Governor Charlie Baker (R-MA)- 11%
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY)- 9%
Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR)- 7%
Governor Nikki Haley (R-SC)- 6%
Fmr. Speaker Leader Paul Ryan- 4%
Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE)- 3%
Governor Bruce Rauner (R-IL)- 3%
Fmr. SoS Kris Kobach (R-KS)- 2%
Fmr. Governor Rick Perry (R-TX)- 1%
Undecided/Other- 19%

Who would you vote for if the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary in your state was held today?
Secretary of State Joe Biden (D-DE)- 20%
Vice President Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)- 17%
Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)- 14%
Senator Elizabetn Warren (D-MA)- 7%
EPA Administrator Al Gore (D-TN)- 6%
HHS Secretary Howard Dean (D-VT)- 5%
Senator Jason Kander (D-MO)- 4%
Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)- 4%
Attorney General Deval Patrick (D-MA)- 3%
Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)- 2%
Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ)- 1%
Secretary of HUD Julian Castro (D-TX)- 1%
Senator Amy Klobucher (D-MN)- 1%
Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)- 0.5%
Fmr. Governor Martin O'Malley (D-MD)- 0.5%
Undecided/Other- 14%
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« Reply #84 on: August 20, 2018, 12:29:08 PM »

This was all for a while, thank you all for reading! Smiley If anyone has any questions (including who won a particular congressional district etc) feel free to ask! I'll now be focusing on my other TL, Mayor Pete, for a while.
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« Reply #85 on: August 20, 2018, 02:32:16 PM »

Suprised that Christie is polling in Second. Expecting 2020 to come down to Baker, Cruz/Cotton (or both), and one or two other candidates, although predicting what you are planning can be difficult.  On the Democratic side I fully expect Biden and Baldwin to run. Those two plus Booker and or Harris would lead the field, although I'm not discounting the potential for a surprise appearance from Kander.

Christie was Trump's running mate in 2016 ITTL, so his name recognition propels him. And interesting predictions- I won't say if they're correct, but there will be surprised Wink

Which seats did Republicans pickup, and which seats changed in 2016?

A LOT of seats changed in 2016 Tongue Democrats gained 43 seats then, so my limited knowledge of local American politics won't be enough to let me say exactly which ones changed, plus I like the flexibility of non-determination on this issue. As for Republican pickups in 2018- I might compile a list later, but I can say that at least 1-2 were in California (where Dems flipped a lot of seats in 2016). However, if you ask me about individual seats that interest you, I can provide their 2016-2018 history. Smiley
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« Reply #86 on: August 21, 2018, 03:27:33 AM »

Republicans didn't lose Key Races in the Governorships. Hilarious from Parrotguy to pretend Kansas or Georgia being "Key Races". Republicans retained FL & OH and picked up PA.

Lost Michigan

This lol. Also, losing Georgia in a favourable year is pretty painful. In any case, I clearly wrote that the Republicans won big in governorships, so I don't see the problem.
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« Reply #87 on: December 03, 2018, 06:13:56 AM »

I understand your writing Mayor Pete (which is fantastic), I was wondering if this timeline will make a return? It's awesome!

Yep, I am planning to finish at least the third term, and maybe even the 2020 election, though it's likelier further in the future since I kinda want to start a new TL after Mayor Pete is done. But I'm bored at work atm, so I might just write a chapter of this TL now, we'll see Tongue
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« Reply #88 on: December 03, 2018, 12:04:58 PM »

November 8th, 2018

President Obama thanks American people for "democratic participation" after high-turnout midterms, promises bipartisan outreach



WASHINGTON, D.C. - In the afternoon following a tense midterm election night, President Barack Obama looked satisfied with the results as he thanked the American people for "a fantastic election season and wonderful participation". In his remarks, the President made an emphasis on bipartisanship and cooperation with moderate Republicans, an expected move following a resurgence of centrist Republican members of congress, especially in the Senate. As Demcorats lose five seats, Obama will have to increasingly rely on Republican votes to pass his agenda, and he seems determined to avoid the obstructionism of 2015-2017, and so called on Senate Republicans to "work together with their colleagues and with out administration to find real solutions to the problems facing America." He pointed out the main issues the administration plans to tackle this year, with an emphasis on issues that seem likely to attract bipartisan support- criminal justice reform, immigration reform and a trade deal with europe, a Trans Atlantic Pact.

November 21st, 2018

Justice Ginsburg announces retirement after rib-shattering fall, sets up confirmation battle in lame-duck season



NEW YORK CITY - Longtime Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, a liberal favourite, has announced her retirement from the Court, citing old age and then need for new blood on the Court. Ginsburg, a daughter of Russian-Jewish immigrants, has dedicated much of her life to struggle for women's rights and gender equality. As she retired, she earned praise from liberals, like President Obama who called her "an icon we'll forever remember". Now that her seat has opened, President Barack Obama has yet another Supreme Court seat to fill, and is expected to search for a fiery liberal woman to confirm, which likely sets up a confirmation battle. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has already signaled that he's likely to nuke the judicial filibuster, a controversial move that would make life easier for the President in the next congress too. Two more retirements are expected in the next two years- moderate conservative Justice Anthony Kennedy and liberal Justice Stephen Breyer, meaning that the court could move further left soon.

December 2nd, 2018

Democratic House caucus retains Pelosi as Speaker, Israel as Majority Leader; Barbara Lee elected Majority Whip with Presidential support



WASHINGTON, D.C. - Yesterday, the Democratic House Caucus held the vote for leadership positions in the next congress. While Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who announced that this would be her last term, and Majority Leader Steve Israel, also reportedly contemplating retirement in 2020, have both won their positions almost unanimously, the Whip position was contested, and ended up with victory for progressive U.S. Rep. Barbara Lee, who reportedly had behind-the-scenes support from Obamaworld. She was elected over rival Debbie Dingell, as well as Seth Moulton and Tulsi Gabbard, meaning that the Democratic leadership trio will have a female majority in the next congress. Progressives have praised the President's move, with Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) calling it "unifying and prudent". On the Republican side, current Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy was elected Minority Leader and Majority Whip Steve Scalise was elected Minority Whip, as expected.

December 13th, 2018

Gun violence "on the decline" months after passage of SOCA



WASHINGTON, D.C. - The Save Our Children Act passed in September, restricting magazine size and introducing bullet and age limits, banning bump-stocks and military-rank guns and imposing universal background checks, seems to be working. According to recent statistics collected about the months October and November, gun violence has seen a slow but steady decline, despite the long-term effects of the bill not being close to playing out yet. Vice President Tammy Baldwin, who's considered likely to run for President in 2020 and who was the key figure behind the formation of the bill, touted the achievement, saying that "as time passes, we'll hopefully see many less school shootings and fatal events" and added that "maybe one day we can eliminate gun violence like the rest of the western world". The Parkland survivors, who continued advocating for further gun control, said that the trend shows "how gun control can do wonders to save people like our friends", and added that more measures are needed.

December 21st

Biden on 2020 Presidential bid: "I'm thinking about it", hints that retirement might be likelier



WILMINGTON - Secretary of State Joe Biden, who continued keeping a high profile in the past four years with successful climate and North Korea negotiations, is still thinking about running for President in 2020. Biden, who has a deep resume as former Senator, Vice President and now Secretary of State, is considered an instant frontrunner if he decides to run, polling above Vice President Tammy Baldwin, another likely candidate, who's still lower profile than him. But Biden, 76, might just want to retire- he lost his son in 2015, and the decision to retire from the Vice Presidency reflects his grief, though he decided to jump into the State Department for the sake of the President, his friend. Now, Biden said that "new blood might be needed and I do want to spend time with my family and rest after decades of service", hinting that a run might be less likely than not as of now. At the same time, it looks like other members of the administration are gearing up for a possible run- other than Baldwin, other names considering a bid are Attorney General Deval Patrick, HUD Secretary Julian Castro, HHS Secretary Howard Dean, who regained prominence after helping pass the popular Guaranteed Healthcare Act, and even EPA Administrator Al Gore, former Vice President, is making sounds of a run after being the face of the administration's climate change efforts.

President Obama Job Approval
Approve- 54%
Disapprove- 41%
Not Sure- 5%
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #89 on: December 07, 2018, 04:44:01 PM »

Why do McCaskill, Nelson and Abrams win in this when they lost IRL?

Because this was written months before the election IRL and I'm not capable of predicting the future. Abrams is also a special case because she was facing Herman Cain.
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