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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderators: Coolface's deceased great-granduncle, Apocrypha)
  Four More Years II- the Third Obama Administration
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #175 on: July 03, 2018, 06:35:40 am »

September 8th, 2018

Surrounded by Parkland survivors and gun control advocates, President Obama officially signs Save Our Children Act



WASHINGTON, D.C. - Hours after it passed through the House of Representatives with a strong majority- some Blue Dog Democrats voted against while the moderate Republican Tuesday Group voter for it- President Barack Obama officially signed the Save Our Children Act into law, marking the passage of the most comprehensive and strict gun control law in American history. Conservatives are protesting the bill, and although a Second Amendment March held in various cities across the country received an embarrassingly poor attendance, the issue is considered a strong weapon for them against Democrats who supported the bill such as Senators Joe Donnelly (D-IN), Jon Tester (D-MT) and Claire McCaskill (D-MO). Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) said that the GOP will "hammer the people who voted for this horrible attack on our freedom and make sure none of them wins reelection". Nevertheless, liberals celebrated the signing of the SOCA into law, and none more than the group of Parkland shooting survivors who formed a strong national youth movement for gun control. Emma Gonzales, teary-eyed and smiling, appeared in a press conference with her partners and praised the Obama administration for "finally taking a step to protect us" and "helping us prevent the next disaster like we had to experience. David Hogg said in the same conference that it was "the first time I can feel happy after that horrible disaster", and Cameron Kasky thanked "brave lawmakers from left and right who came together to defeat the cold interests of the NRA and protect children and teenagers".

President Obama Job Approval
Approve- 51%
Disapprove- 44%
Not Sure- 5%

September 12th, 2018

In New Hampshire, Republican Brown nominated to face Governor Van Ostern; Raimondo to run against Fung in Rhode Island



PROVIDENCE - With the GOP seeing openings in gubernatorial races across the left-leaning states of New England, primaries were held in two key races- New Hampshire yesterday and Rhode Island tonight. In the Granite State, Republicans saw a close, high-profile primary between two former Senators- Scott Brown, who won an upset in a 2010 special election in Massachusetts and served as its Senator until 2013, and Kelly Ayotte, the former New Hampshire Senator who was defeated in 2016 by Senator Maggie Hassan (D). Initially, Ayotte was considered heavily favoured, but it seemed like her popularity in the state had slipped, and an endorsement from Donald Trump to the usually moderate Brown helped to shore up his support and grant him an upset victory. Now, he will face Democratic Governor Colin Van Ostern in a closely-watched race. Meanwhile, in Rhode Island, the popular Mayor Allan Fung of Cranston won the Republican primary to face the deeply unpopular Governor Ginna Raimondo (D), in a race where the GOP is hopeful they can use a moderate, competent candidate to win a governorship in yet another liberal northeastern state. Further complicating Democratic chances is former Governor and Senator Lincoln Chafee, a Republican-turned-Democrat, who decided to run as the nominee of the Rhode Island Moderate Party after it became clear that Raimondo would not be defeated by her strong primary challenge, former State Secretary of State Matt Brown.

New Hampshire Gubernatorial Election (Republican Primary)- Results
Former MA Senator Scott Brown- 40.1% ✓
Former Senator Kelly Ayotte- 38.2%
State Rep. Frank Edelblut- 11.0%
Mayor Ted Gatsas- 8.3%
Others- 2.4%

New Gampshire Gubernatorial Election (General)- Polling
Governor Colin Van Ostern*- 47%
Former MA Senator Scott Brown- 46%
Undecided/Other- 7%

Rhode Island Gubernatorial Election (Republican Primary)- Results
Mayor Allan Fung- 43.5% ✓
Fmr. State Rep. Joe Trillo- 26.5%
Businessman Giovanni Feroce- 15.3%
Minority Leader Patricia Morgan- 14.7%

Rhode Island Gubernatorial Election (Democratic Primary)- Results
Governor Gina Raimondo*- 51.7% ✓
Fmr. SoS Matt Brown- 48.3%

Rhode Island Gubernatorial Election (General)- Polling
Governor Gina Raimondo*- 32%
Mayor Allan Fung- 30%
Fmr. Governor Lincoln Chafee- 24%
Undecided/Other- 14%

September 13th, 2018

Cuomo nominated by Democrats for New York Governor, Nixon to run as Working Families nominee



ALBANY - In the Empire State, New York Democrats voted in their gubernatorial primary to nominate Andrew Cuomo, the controversial incumbent, for a third term in office. He defeated a primary challenger from the left, actress and activist Cynthia Nixon. However, the election is still not completely decided- Nixon was nominated by the Working Families Party, which has ballot access across the state, and her strong performance in the primary will make her a tough candidate in the general election. She was already endorsed by several New York politicians, including U.S. Rep. Zephyr Teachout. There are other candidates running- the Republican Party nominated former U.S. Rep. Chris Gibson, a relative moderate who could have a strong showing, while the Libertarian Party has an exceptionally strong candidate in business consultant Larry Sharpe, who has strong fundraising numbers and is taking a lot of conservative support from Gibson, despite the Republican ticket being endorsed by the New York Conservative Party. There's also a strong independent running- former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner is running as the canddiate of the Serve America Movement, a centrist party aiming to attack the corrupt machine politics of Governor Cuomo, and was endorsed by the New York Reform Party and the New York Liberal Party. Interestingly, Miner was also endorsed by former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, who was defeated by the Obama and Cuomo endorsed new Mayor Shaun Donovan in the Democratic primary last year. This creates an interesting race between four candidates, and likely the most serious challenge to Cuomo in a long while.

New York Gubernatorial Election (Democratic Primary)- Results
Governor Andrew Cuomo*- 56.1% ✓
Activist Cynthia Nixon- 43.9%

New York Gubernatorial Election (General)- Polling
Governor Andrew Cuomo*- 31%
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Chris Gibson- 19%
Fmr. Mayor Stephanie Miner- 16%
Activist Cynthia Nixon- 12%
Businessman Larry Sharpe- 7%
Undecided/Other- 15%

September 25th, 2018

As Republicans ready to make gains in the midterms, Democrats hope problematic candidates and party splits help them stem the tide



KANSAS CITY - With the last primary elections before the 2018 midterms over, the race is shaping to have some interesting dynamics. Republicans, who are targeting a vast number of Democratic seats in conservative areas, as well as open seats, are almost certain to make some gainst and hope that they will be able to reclaim the Senate, resurging after a shaking defeat in 2016, when they lost most competitive races. Democrats are struggling to stem the tide, hoping to prevent another midterm disaster like 2014 and 2010. However, a string of unlikely events altered the map from a straightforward battle between Democrats from conservaitve and swing states and their Republican challengers, into a much wider and more interesting map. Democratic chances to hold the Senate were hurt when popular Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA) died in a plane crush, opening his seat and making it a competitive race between Governor Tom Wolf (D) and former Governor Tom Ridge (R). They were also harmed when Senator Al Franken (D-MN) was forced to resign due to sexual harrassment allegations, opening a dangerous special election in his seat between the little-known appointed incumbent Tina Smith (D) and former Senator Norm Coleman (R), and the corruption charges against Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) make him vulnerable to a challenge from moderate State Senator Tom Kean Jr. (R) in an otherwise Democratic state.

Minnesota Senate Election (General)- Polling
Senator Amy Klobucher*- 49%
State Sen. Karin Housley- 40%
Undecided/Other- 11%

Minnesota Senate Special Election (General)- Polling
Fmr. Sen. Norm Coleman- 44%
Senator Tina Smith*- 43%
Undecided/Other- 13%

Minnesota Gubernatorial Election (General)- Polling
Fmr. Governor Tim Pawlenty- 46%
State Rep. Erin Murphy- 44%
Undecided/Other- 10%

New Jersey Senate Election (General)- Polling
Senator Bob Menendez*- 46%
State Sen. Thomas Kean Jr.- 43%
Undecided/Other- 11%

Pennsylvania Senate Election (General)- Polling
Governor Tom Wolf- 45%
Fmr. Governor Tom Ridge- 44%
Undecided/Other- 11%

Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Election (General)- Polling
U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent- 46%
Fmr. Chief of Staff Kathleen McGinty- 42%
Undecided/Other- 12%

However, Republicans have problems of their own- convicted felon and controversial hardliner businessman Don Blankenship (R-WV) won his party's nomination to the open seat vacated by Senator Joe Manchin (D), and is in a real danger of losing to former Senator Carte Goodwin (D), a young liberal, in this deep conservative state due to his unpopularity and a write-in campaign from the more moderate U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins. In Arizona, Senator John McCain's resignation forced Republicans to defend yet another seat in a state rapidly moving left, and polls are showing a hard battle for U.S. Rep. Martha McSally (R), who had to move right to defeat ultra-conservative Sheriff Joe Arpaio in the primary, struggling to beat the young U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D). Lastly, in Missouri, businessman Austin Petersen was nominated by the Libertarian Party after coming a shockingly close second in the Republican Senate primary, possibly giving Senator Claire McCaskill (D) an opening in her race against State Attorney General Josh Hawley (R). Overall, the 2018 midterms are likely to produce a very curious map.

Arizona Senate Election (General)- Polling
U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema- 51%
Fmr. State Sen. Kelly Ward- 41%
Undecided/Other- 8%

Arizona Senate Special Election (General)- Polling
U.S. Rep. Martha McSally- 46%
U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego- 45%
Undecided/Other- 9%

Arizona Gubernatorial Election (General)- Polling
Governor Doug Ducey*- 50%
Professor David Garcia- 40%
Undecided/Other- 10%

Missouri Senate Election (General)- Polling
Senator Claire McCaskill- 37%
State Att. Gen. Josh Hawley- 35%
Businessman Austin Petersen- 17%
Undecided/Other- 11%

West Virginia Senate Election (General)- Polling
Fmr. Senator Carte Goodwin- 42%
Businessman Don Blankenship- 40%
U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins (Write-in)- 4%
Undecided/Other- 14%

October 3rd, 2018

President Obama set to campaign for Democrats across the country, hopes to fix mistakes from previous midterms



MIAMI - The Obama White House claims that it learned from the traumas of 2010 and 2014, when Democrats had suffered large losses to Republicans in the President's midterms. Press Secretary Josh Earnest and Chief of Staff Eric Holder have both claimed that this time, the President will be doing what he can to help Democratic candidates and incumbents, especially in states where he's popular. Thus, while he didn't yet make an appearance in the conservative states were Democrats are trying to hold seats, the President already traveled to make appearances in states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Arizona and Maine, campaigning for Democratic Senate and gubernatorial nominees. In Florida, he joined Senator Gwen Graham (D), former Senator Bob Graham (D) and Vice President Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) to campaign for Senator Bill Nelson (D), who has a strong challenger in the form of former Senator Marco Rubio (R), and for Mayor Andrew Gillum (D), running for Governor against Republican Mike Huckabee and independent John Morgan. In Ohio, where Governor John Kasich (R), running against Senator Sherrod Brown (D), is endangering a seat Democrats thought would otherwise be easy to defend, Obama made several campaign stops in an effort to boost Democratic enthusiasm to turn out for Brown. Overall, Democrats are satisfied with Obama's midterm performance- DSCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) said that the President is "doing a great job, campaigning where we need him and avoiding where we don't", and retiring Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) said that Obama "isn't tone deaf this time, he's definitely listening to local voters and acting by their preferences". The White House confirmed that the President, as well as other members of the administration, will continue campaigning for Democrats through the fall, but whether this will be enough to stem the Red Wave predicted by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) remains to be seen.

Florida Senate Election (General)- Polling
Senator Bill Nelson*- 48%
Fmr. Senator Marco Rubio- 46%
Undecided/Other- 6%

Florida Gubernatorial Election (General)- Polling
Fmr. AR Governor Mike Huckabee- 33%
Mayor Andrew Gillum- 30%
Lawyer John Morgan- 27%
Undecided/Other- 10%

Ohio Senate Election (General)- Polling
Senator Sherrod Brown*- 46%
Governor John Kasich- 46%
Undecided/Other- 8%

Ohio Gubernatorial Election (General)- Polling
State Attorney General Mike DeWine- 50%
State Sen. Joe Schiavoni- 43%
Undecided/Other- 7%
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #176 on: July 03, 2018, 06:39:02 am »

Now that we're done with the pre-midterm primaries and the Obama pre-midterm agenda is completed with the passage of the SOCA, the TL will speed up and we're going to reach the midterms in very few updates. So it's time for the inevitable question- how do you all prefer I present the midterm results, through a CNN coverage format (similar to the way I did the 2016 general election in the previous part), or as a few long posts like this part's news article format?
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« Reply #177 on: July 03, 2018, 08:42:36 am »

This is easily one of the site's best websites, and your carefulness and detail with the elections and polling is awesome. I really like how you're portraying a split in the GOP by having Trump-aligned candidates succeed in primaries (Blankenship, etc.) along with more establishment or moderate candidates (Dent, etc.).  

As for the coverage of the midterms, assuming it would not be too much work, I would like an instant view of all of the Senate and governorship results with long articles about the races--at least the key ones (Arizona, West Virginia, etc.) or the more interesting ones (New York, etc.).

Side note: I hope the real-life gubernatorial election in New York is as chaotic as this one Tongue
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« Reply #178 on: July 03, 2018, 10:10:02 am »

Now that we're done with the pre-midterm primaries and the Obama pre-midterm agenda is completed with the passage of the SOCA, the TL will speed up and we're going to reach the midterms in very few updates. So it's time for the inevitable question- how do you all prefer I present the midterm results, through a CNN coverage format (similar to the way I did the 2016 general election in the previous part), or as a few long posts like this part's news article format?
cnn coverage format
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Ishan
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« Reply #179 on: July 03, 2018, 10:12:03 am »

MSNBC Format
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #180 on: July 03, 2018, 10:55:01 am »

This is easily one of the site's best websites, and your carefulness and detail with the elections and polling is awesome. I really like how you're portraying a split in the GOP by having Trump-aligned candidates succeed in primaries (Blankenship, etc.) along with more establishment or moderate candidates (Dent, etc.).  

As for the coverage of the midterms, assuming it would not be too much work, I would like an instant view of all of the Senate and governorship results with long articles about the races--at least the key ones (Arizona, West Virginia, etc.) or the more interesting ones (New York, etc.).

Side note: I hope the real-life gubernatorial election in New York is as chaotic as this one Tongue

Thanks a lot! And this could be a good idea- you'd prefer thos over, say, a gradual CNN reporting and discussion about the races as the prescints report?


As an Israeli, I don't really know pundits other than the well-known CNN ones, so I can't really do that Tongue
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« Reply #181 on: July 03, 2018, 11:58:29 am »

This is easily one of the site's best websites, and your carefulness and detail with the elections and polling is awesome. I really like how you're portraying a split in the GOP by having Trump-aligned candidates succeed in primaries (Blankenship, etc.) along with more establishment or moderate candidates (Dent, etc.).  

As for the coverage of the midterms, assuming it would not be too much work, I would like an instant view of all of the Senate and governorship results with long articles about the races--at least the key ones (Arizona, West Virginia, etc.) or the more interesting ones (New York, etc.).

Side note: I hope the real-life gubernatorial election in New York is as chaotic as this one Tongue

Thanks a lot! And this could be a good idea- you'd prefer thos over, say, a gradual CNN reporting and discussion about the races as the prescints report?


As an Israeli, I don't really know pundits other than the well-known CNN ones, so I can't really do that Tongue

Same exact format that you did the 2016 elections for this timeline.
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« Reply #182 on: July 03, 2018, 12:35:02 pm »

CNN Format
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #183 on: July 03, 2018, 03:11:31 pm »

October 14th, 2018

Democratic incumbents in conservative states face shadows of Obamacare 2.0, EPCEA, SOCA as they try to win reelection against tough odds



HELENA - The Guaranteed Healthcare Act, also known as Obamacare 2.0, the Environmental Protection and Clean Energy Act and the Save Our Children Act are the three signature achievements of the Obama administration, passed after hard work and many struggles. They are the three achievements touted by progressives and liberals who increasingly approve of President Obama's three terms. But in states where Republicans have lopsided advantages in federal elections, deeply conservative states, these three achievements are now hounding Democratic incumbents trying to survive and win reelection. Conservatives are pushing the issues hard, accusing the Democrats of supporting the President's agenda to "ruin our healthcare system, hurt businesses and take our guns", as it was phrased by U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke (R), running against Seantor Jon Tester (D). The Democrats are not only accused of supporting Obama- their pictures with other key figures in these bills, such as Health and Human Services Secretary Howard Dean, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Al Gore and Vice President Tammy Baldwin are also adorning GOP ads attacking these incumbents. On their parts, the Democrats are trying to signal to their record of opposing the President's efforts- Senator Joe Donnelly (D-IN) voted against the GHA but supported the EPCEA and the SOCa, two lines of attack often used by his challenger, former U.S. Rep. Todd Young (R). Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), meanwhile, opposed every single one of the signature bills, giving her a strong line of argument against her opponent, U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND), but she's still struggling to hold onto her seat in the face of the President's deep unpopularity in her state. Senator Jon Tester (D-MT), on the other hand, supported all three, marking him as the most liberal of the conservative-state Senators. Zinke, his opponent, is using this to hammer Tester and try to turn out enough conservative voters in the traditionally Republican state to unseat the incumbent. If Republicans are unable to claim these seats, their hopes of reclaiming the Senate would be very slim, and so, the RNC and McConnell's Senate Leadership PAC are heavily investing in these races. Whether it'll be enough remains to be seen.

Indiana Senate Election (General)- Polling
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Todd Young- 50%
Senator Joe Donnelly*- 43%
Undecided/Other- 7%

Montana Senate Election (General)- Polling
Senator Jon Tester*- 46%
U.S. Rep. Ryan Zinke- 45%
Undecided/Other- 9%

North Dakota Senate Election (General)- Polling
U.S. Rep. Kevin Cramer- 46%
Senator Heidi Heitkamp*- 44%
Undecided/Other- 10%

October 21st, 2018

In symbolic foreign policy victory for Obama, first McDonald's opens in North Korea



SEOUL - As efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula continue, with the Kim Regime reluctantly but slowly working to dismantle its nuclear program as agreed in the Singapore Summit, a symbolic but important event in the opening of North Korea to the west occured today- McDonald's, the famous American food corporation, officially opened its North Korean branch with a first store in Pyongyang. The line to the McDonald's branch, like in many other developing countries where a McDonald's was first opened in the past, was huge, going through several streets. Secretary of Commerce Dean Heller said that it was "a historic event" and that "through trade, we will be able to make gradual change in North Korea", while National Security Advisor James Stavridis seemed more reluctant to celebrate, claiming that "we will have to wait and see if the Kim Regime continues to comply by the agreement's terms when it comes to denuclearization and human rights". Secretary of State Joe Biden is scheduled to travel to Pyongyang in late November for a historic meeting with Kim Jong Un.

October 29th, 2018

With midterms a week away, Republicans hold high hopes of taking back the House despite strong Obama approvals



WASHINGTON, D.C. - The 2018 midterms are just a week away, with pressure reaching a high point in both parties with a large number of Senate races in an uncertain state. President Obama is holding fairly high approvals after passing some major achievements in the first half of his third term- three key bills, the Trans Pacific Pact, international environmental agreements and beginning a normalization with North Korea. However, Republicans are still hopeful, especially about their chances of taking the House- House Minority Leader Paul Ryan (R-WI) said that "we're going to take back the House" and that "Americans know that the Democrats have failed them again and again". Meanwhile, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise reasoned that "in every Obama term, we had great gains in the House, so it's going to be the same now". However, House Majority Leader Steve Israel (D-NY) countered that it's "different", explaining that "the President's approvals are much stronger and the economy is in a fantastic shape". Israel, who was expected to retire in 2016 but decided to remain due to the high chances to advance in leadership, is considered a frontrunner for the position of Democratic leader when Speaker Nancy Pelosi retires.

President Obama Job Approval
Approve- 50%
Disapprove- 43%
Not Sure- 7%

November 6th, 2018

Midterm election day arrives: reports indicate high turnout, both sides extremely energized



CHICAGO - Yesterday, the major party nominees in major races across the country held their final rallies to try and shore up as much support as possible for the midterm elections. And now, the day finally came- voters in all of America came out to vote and choose their Senators, Governor, House Representatives, State Legislators, Mayors and many more local offices. President Obama voted this morning in Chicago, presumably supporting Democratic gubernatorial nominee J.B. Pritzker despite his lukewarm support for the rich businessman, and urged all voters across the country to "come out and participate in our great democracy", regardless of their party affiliation. The midterms are a consequential moment for Obama's third term- if his party manages to hold the House and the Senate, he'll be able to keep getting his agenda through. The elections also hold critical importance for the careers of many major politicians such as Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Minority Leader Paul Ryan and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Right now, most pundits give Republicans a narrow edge for gaining the House and the Senate, though the latter is considered a nearly pure tossup with many close, uncertain races.
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« Reply #184 on: July 03, 2018, 03:14:42 pm »

I hope Tester survives. Looks like Donnelly and possibly Heitkamp are gone Sad
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« Reply #185 on: July 03, 2018, 03:55:15 pm »

Making a Democrat in a D+1 District (maybe give or take a few because of differences in this timeline) part of the leadership will not end well.
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« Reply #186 on: July 03, 2018, 06:08:28 pm »

Making a Democrat in a D+1 District (maybe give or take a few because of differences in this timeline) part of the leadership will not end well.
Israel has always been popular and won reelection by wide margins.
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« Reply #187 on: July 09, 2018, 01:52:26 pm »

When's the next update (midterms election coverage)?
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #188 on: July 09, 2018, 04:15:56 pm »

MIDTERM NIGHT, Part I


Anderson Cooper: Hello, and welcome to CNN's official coverage of the 2018 midterm election night. We'll be reporting to you immediately when results from each of the many interesting Senate and Governor races today start arriving, and analyzing the data as it arrives.

Wolf Blitzer: Right. And we're already at 6 PM, so we have first results from the first states closing many of their polls- Indiana and Kentucky. CNN will right now classify the Senate race in Indiana, between Republican former U.S. Representative and 2016 Senate nominee Todd Young and incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly as too close to call. In the same time, the race in Kentucky's 6th congreessional district between Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, a Democrat, and Representative Andy Barr, a Republican, is too close to call. In a district where Lexington, as well as other cities, are dominant, this is one of the only pickup opportunities for Democrats in a year favourable for Republicans.

John King: And we can already say that the race in Indiana seems to be favouring Rep. Young- the polls were showing that Donnelly doesn't have much of a chance to hold on, and the data seems to be confirming it. Young is especially overperforming in suburbs and urban areas, though Senator Donnelly is holding on relatively well in rural areas.

Dana Bash: It could be understood politically, actually. Donnelly was very consistent on issues important to these rural voters- he opposed gun control legislation, he opposed environmental intervention, he opposed free trade. He did what he needed to do. But, it seems, in the end it's not really going to matter against the national environment. Let's not eulogize him yet, though, and wait for the results.

2018 U.S. Senate Election Map


Indiana Senate Race (4% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Todd Young (R)- 51.9%
Senator Joe Donnelly (D)*- 46.7%

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« Reply #189 on: July 09, 2018, 05:17:44 pm »
« Edited: August 11, 2018, 02:46:55 am by Parrotguy »

MIDTERM NIGHT, Part II


Blitzer: Thank you for tuning in to our coverage of the 2018 midterm elections again. We're now at the 7 PM hour, with a bunch of more states closing their polls, including some very important races. We'll now be able to get first results from the Senate and Governor races in Georgia, Florida, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia, as well as more results from the rest of the polling places in Indiana and Kentucky.

Jake Tapper: Right, and we're now already able to call the Senate race in Vermont, where Senator Bernie Sanders, an Independent caucusing with the Democrats who was the runner-up to President Obama in the 2016 Democratic Presidential primary, easily won reelection over his Republican opponent, businessman Rocky De La Fuente. And in South Carolina, we're ready to make an early call in favour of Republican U.S. Representative Trey Gowdy, who easily dispatched his opponent, Democratic businessman Phil Noble.

Cooper: But right now, these are the only races we feel ready to call. The Senate race in Virginia, between Republican businesswoman Carly Fiorina and incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, is too early to call rather than too close, with a strong advantage for Kaime. Same for the gubernatorial race in Vermont, where Governor Phil Scott, a Republican, is leading his Democratic opponent, CEO Christine Hallquist, but it's too early to call right now.

Bash: And there are several interesting races we're unable to call right now- the Georgia gubernatorial race, between controversial Republican businessman Herman Cain and Demcoratic former State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, is too close to call. Same for the New Hampshire gubernatorial race, where incumbent Democrat Colin Van Ostern is up against former Republican Massachussetts Senator Scott Brown Also too close to call are the two Florida races- the Senate race, where Democratic Senator Bill Nelson is facing off against Republican former Senator and 2016 Presidential candidate Marco Rubio in his comeback bid, and the gubernatorial race, where Republcian former Arkansas Governor and 2008 and 2016 Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee, Democratic Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, and independent famous lawyer John Morgan are locked in a tight three-way race.

King: And we also can't call the Indiana Senate race right now, although Senator Donnelly has narrowed Rep. Young's lead for now. Let's take a look at the results so far.

2018 U.S. Senate Election Map


Florida Senate Race (1% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. Senator Marco Rubio (R)- 49.8%
Senator Bill Nelson (D)*- 49.6%

Indiana Senate Race (16% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Todd Young (R)- 50.7%
Senator Joe Donnelly (D)*- 47.8%

Vermont Senate Race (2% Reporting)- INDEPENDENT HOLD
Senator Bernie Sanders (D)*- 83.9% ✓
Son of God Rocky De La Fuente (R)- 12.1%

Virginia Senate Race (2% Reporting)- TOO EARLY TO CALL
Senator Tim Kaine (D)*- 51.2%
Businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R)- 47.5%

2018 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections Map


Georgia Gubernatorial Race (2% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Businessman Herman Cain (R)- 50.4%
Fmr. State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D)- 49.4%

Florida Gubernatorial Race (1% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. AR Governor Mike Huckabee (R)- 39.9%
Lawyer John Morgan- 36.3%
Mayor Andrew Gillum (D)- 23.0%

New Hampshire Gubernatorial Race (<1% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor Colin Van Ostern (D)*- 55.5%
Fmr. MA Senator Scott Brown (R)- 43.5%

South Carolina Gubernatorial Race (3% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
U.S. Rep. Trey Gowdy (R)- 58.7% ✓
Businessman Phil Noble (D)- 40.1%

Vermont Gubernatorial Race (2% Reporting)- TOO EARLY TO CALL
Governor Phil Scott (R)*- 54.8%
CEO Christine Hallquist (D)- 41.5%
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razze
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« Reply #190 on: July 09, 2018, 09:55:29 pm »

FL is gonna be a disaster.
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Misseees
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« Reply #191 on: July 16, 2018, 09:11:06 pm »

"Son of God Rocky de La Fuente"

But seriously, this is an amazing timeline. Keep up the good work!
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Admiral Florida Man
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« Reply #192 on: July 21, 2018, 10:42:29 pm »

Kean! Kean! Kean! Kean! Kean!
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« Reply #193 on: July 22, 2018, 12:06:42 am »

MOAR
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #194 on: July 24, 2018, 04:41:49 pm »
« Edited: July 24, 2018, 06:02:28 pm by Parrotguy »

MIDTERM NIGHT, Part III


Cooper: ...And we can now finally call the gubernatorial race in Vermont. Phil Scott, the incumbent Republican Governor, will be reelected by a wide margin.

Bash: Not unexpected, considering Scott has been a moderate and popular Governor, and his challenger is a fairly unknown CEO, not exactly enthusing the progressive Democrats in the state.

Tapper: But now, we've reached 7:30 PM, another crucial hour tonight, and as we close the polls in three more states we cannot yet call any of the races there- in Ohio, we cannot call the Senate race between Governor John Kasich and Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, and in West Virginia, the race for Joe Manchin's open seat between Republican Don Blankenship and Democrat Carte Goodwin is also too close to call. As for Ohio's gubernatorial race, we also cannot call it, though trends show that Republican State Attorney General Mike DeWine is holding a healthy advantage against Democratic State Senator Joe Schiavoni. So, John, how's it looking for the two parties right now?

King: Well, it's really quite early to tell. It appears as if Democrats do not have much to worry about in the Virginia Senate race, but that one of their vulnerable incumbents, Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly, is heading towards a painful defeat if the trends hold. However, Demcorats were expecting to suffer some losses tonight and three Senate seats they were really hoping to hold tonight, in Florida, Ohio and West Virginia, will be close. This will likely be a long night.

Blitzer: Yes, and in the latter race, especially, it looks like Democrats got an unexpected gift- after Senator Manchin's retirement, they were expecting to lose the seat handily, but when Republicans nominated businessman Don Blankenship, a felon convicted for misdemeanor in an incident where 29 miners were killed and is very unpopular statewide, and when U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins, who lost the Republican primary, launched a write-in campaign to oppose Blankenship, it looked like the liberal but young former interim Senator and 2016 gubernatorial nominee Carte Goodwin will have a chance. We shall have to see if that materializes or if the U.S. Senate will be home to a convicted felon. Finally, in the Georgia gubernatorial race, the far-right businessman Herman Cain appears to be having trouble against his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, giving Democrats a rare opportunity in what's shaping up to be a tough and long night.

2018 U.S. Senate Election Map


Florida Senate Race (8% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. Senator Marco Rubio (R)- 50.2%
Senator Bill Nelson (D)*- 49.1%

Indiana Senate Race (23% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Todd Young (R)- 51.9%
Senator Joe Donnelly (D)*- 47.1%

Ohio Senate Election (2% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Sherrod Brown*- 51.4%
Governor John Kasich- 48.2%

Virginia Senate Race (9% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Tim Kaine (D)*- 52.5%
Businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R)- 46.7%

West Virginia Senate Election (1% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Businessman Don Blankenship- 47.2%
Fmr. Senator Carte Goodwin- 46.0%
U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins (Write-in)- 5.6%

2018 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections Map


Georgia Gubernatorial Race (9% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Businessman Herman Cain (R)- 49.9%
Fmr. State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D)- 49.6%

Florida Gubernatorial Race (8% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. AR Governor Mike Huckabee (R)- 41.3%
Lawyer John Morgan- 36.1%
Mayor Andrew Gillum (D)- 21.9%

New Hampshire Gubernatorial Race (5% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor Colin Van Ostern (D)*- 51.0%
Fmr. MA Senator Scott Brown (R)- 47.8%

Ohio Gubernatorial Election (2% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
State Att. Gen. Mike DeWeine- 51.9%
State Sen. Joe Schiavoni- 47.5%

Vermont Gubernatorial Race (10% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
Governor Phil Scott (R)*- 58.3% ✓
CEO Christine Hallquist (D)- 38.5%
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vanteran
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« Reply #195 on: August 06, 2018, 11:46:43 pm »

Is this dead? I love this timeline and am pumped to see how the midterms shape up!
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #196 on: August 07, 2018, 12:40:20 am »

Is this dead? I love this timeline and am pumped to see how the midterms shape up!

This is not dead, but I nearly am after failing two exams Tongue I'll get back to it soon enough! Smiley
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adamevans
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« Reply #197 on: August 07, 2018, 04:23:38 am »

Florida Gubernatorial Race (8% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. AR Governor Mike Huckabee (R)- 41.3%
Lawyer John Morgan- 36.1%
Mayor Andrew Gillum (D)- 21.9%

HUCKABEE! HUCKABEE! HUCKABEE!
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Ishan
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« Reply #198 on: August 07, 2018, 09:01:08 am »

Florida Gubernatorial Race (8% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. AR Governor Mike Huckabee (R)- 41.3%
Lawyer John Morgan- 36.1%
Mayor Andrew Gillum (D)- 21.9%

GILLUM GILLUM GILLUM !
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Parrotguy
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« Reply #199 on: August 10, 2018, 04:10:11 pm »
« Edited: August 11, 2018, 02:47:02 am by Parrotguy »

MIDTERM NIGHT, Part IV


Blitzer: Thank you for tuning in to CNN's election night coverage again. It's 8 PM and we're now at a very important moment tonight as the polls have closed in a myriad of states.

Tapper: Indeed. There are Senate and gubernatorial races in many of these states right now, and we can already make some calls. We can call a few Senate races for the Democratic incumbents- Chris Murphy in Connecticut will be reelected safely, as will Tom Carper in Delaware, Ben Cardin in Maryland, Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts and Sheldon Whitehouse from Rhode Island. We can also already say that several Republicans have won reelection tonight- the Senator from Misssissippi, Roger Wicker, and Ted Cruz in Texas. We can also make a surprisingly early call in favour of Republican Governor Bill Haslam, who now won Senator Bob Corker's open seat in the state after his retirement, and kept it in Republican hands.

Bash: Indeed, this is fairly surprising, considering the seat in Tennessee was open and the Democratic candidate, former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean, was considered strong. But Haslam, who has support from both moderates and conservatives and the national winds behind him, proved too popular for the Democrats to endanger. The other Senate races where polls are closed cannot be projected- the elections in Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania are all too close to call. The last two are especially intersting, pitting moderate Republicans against endangered Democrats in seats the President's party thought were safe. However, the race in Maine is just too early to call, with incumbent Democratic-leaning Independent Angus King leading quite strongly.

Cooper: Indeed, and the race in Michigan, where former Governor John Engler is facing popular Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow, is one to watch- if Republicans can win here, it means they're having a very good night. We also have some calls in the gubernatorial races- in Texas, Republican Governor Greg Abbott will win reelection while another Republican incumbent, Kay Ivey of Aalbama, will win her race tonight. And surprisingly early calls in Massachusetts too, where we can project Republican Governor Charlie Baker will win reelection. Also, we can already say that in Tennessee, retiring Senator Bob Corker will win the governorship against Democratic Mayor Andy Berke.

Blitzer: Of course, there are plenty of races we cannot, at this time, call- the gubernatorial races in Maryland and Oklahoma are too early to call but Republicans Larry Hogan and Scott Pruitt hold strong leads, while we can say that the races in Connecticut, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island are too close to call. In many of these states, Democrats are under assault by a crop of centrist Republicans. But at the same time, we have very conservative candidates like Pruitt in Oklahoma and, likely, Herman Cain in Georgia achieving success, so it remains to be seen what will happen. All we can say for sure is that this is going to be a very long night.

2018 U.S. Senate Election Map


Connecticut Senate Race (2% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Senator Chris Murphy (D)*- 60.4% ✓
Businesswoman Linda McMahon (R)- 37.9%

Delaware Senate Race (2% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Senator Tom Carper (D)*- 58.2% ✓
Activist Christine O'Donnell (R)- 39.7%

Florida Senate Race (14% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. Senator Marco Rubio (R)- 49.8%
Senator Bill Nelson (D)*- 49.4%

Indiana Senate Race (29% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Todd Young (R)- 52.1%
Senator Joe Donnelly (D)*- 46.9%

Maine Senate Race (1% Reporting)- TOO EARLY TO CALL
Senator Angus King*- 47.3%
Governor Paul LePage- 35.3%
Mr. Zak Ringelstein- 13.9%

Maryland Senate Race (1% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Senator Ben Cardin (D)*- 62.8% ✓
Mr. Tony Campbell (R)- 35.3%

Massachusetts Senate Race (1% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D)*- 56.1% ✓
Mr. Curt Schilling (R)- 41.2%

Michigan Senate Election (1% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Debbie Stabenow (D)*- 49.8%
Fmr. Governor John Engler (R)- 49.1%

Mississippi Senate Race (2% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
Senator Roger Wicker (R)*- 61.6% ✓
Fmr. State Rep. David Baria (D)- 35.9%

Missouri Senate Election (2% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Claire McCaskill (D)*- 43.7%
State Att. Gen. Josh Hawley (R)- 43.1%
Businessman Austin Petersen (L)- 12.8%

New Jersey Senate Election (1% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
State Sen. Thomas Kean Jr. (R)- 49.2%
Senator Bob Menendez (D)*- 48.7%

Ohio Senate Election (9% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Sherrod Brown (D)*- 50.8%
Governor John Kasich (R)- 48.7%

Pennsylvania Senate Election (1% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor Tom Wolf (D)- 50.5%
Fmr. Governor Tom Ridge (R)- 48.1%

Rhode Island Senate Race (2% Reporting)- DEMOCRATIC HOLD
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D)*- 61.7% ✓
State Rep. Robert Nardolillo (R)- 37.4%

Tennessee Senate Race (2% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
Governor Bill Haslam (R)- 54.8% ✓
Fmr. Mayor Karl Dean (D)- 44.5%

Texas Senate Race (1% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
Senator Ted Cruz (R)*- 53.6% ✓
Fmr. Sherriff Lupe Valdez (D)- 45.4%

Virginia Senate Race (15% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Senator Tim Kaine (D)*- 53.0%
Businesswoman Carly Fiorina (R)- 46.1%

West Virginia Senate Election (8% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Businessman Don Blankenship (R)- 46.8%
Fmr. Senator Carte Goodwin (D)- 45.7%
U.S. Rep. Evan Jenkins (Write-in)- 6.3%

2018 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections Map


Alabama Gubernatorial Race (1% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
Governor Kay Ivey (R)*- 56.5% ✓
Fmr. Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb (D)- 42.2%

Connecticut Gubernatorial Race (2% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Mayor Erin Stewart (R)- 50.6%
State Sen. Edward M. Kennedy Jr. (D)- 48.5%

Georgia Gubernatorial Race (15% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Businessman Herman Cain (R)- 49.8%
Fmr. State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D)- 49.6%

Florida Gubernatorial Race (14% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. AR Governor Mike Huckabee (R)- 40.8%
Lawyer John Morgan- 34.7%
Mayor Andrew Gillum (D)- 23.9%

Illinois Gubernatorial Race (1% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor Bruce Rauner (R)*- 45.5%
Businessman J.B. Pritzker (D)- 43.9%
Attorney Rich Whitney (G)- 10.3%

Kansas Gubernatorial Race (2% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Sec. of State Kris Kobach (R)- 48.5%
Businessman Greg Orman\Fmr. Sec. of Agriculture Josh Svaty (I\D)- 47.9%

Maine Gubernatorial Race (1% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Activist Betsy Sweet (D)- 40.6%
U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R)- 39.9%
State Treasurer Terry Hayes (I)- 15.3%
Fmr. Mayor John Jenkins (I)- 4.2%

Maryland Gubernatorial Race (1% Reporting)- TOO EARLY TO CALL
Governor Larry Hogan (R)*- 53.8%
Fmr. NAACP President Ben Jealous (D)- 45.4%

Massachusetts Gubernatorial Race (1% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
Governor Charlie Baker (R)*- 67.8% ✓
Executive Jay Gonzalez (D)- 31.3%

Michigan Gubernatorial Race (1% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Fmr. State Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (D)- 51.0%
State Att. Gen. Bill Schutte (R)- 48.7%

New Hampshire Gubernatorial Race (10% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Governor Colin Van Ostern (D)*- 50.2%
Fmr. MA Senator Scott Brown (R)- 48.5%

Ohio Gubernatorial Election (9% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
State Att. Gen. Mike DeWeine- 52.4%
State Sen. Joe Schiavoni- 46.8%

Oklahoma Gubernatorial Race (2% Reporting)- TOO EARLY TO CALL
State Att. Gen. Scott Pruitt (R)*- 54.0%
Fmr. State Sen. Connie Johnson (D)- 45.0%

Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Election (1% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent- 53.6%
Fmr. Chief of Staff Kathleen McGinty- 45.6%

Rhode Island Gubernatorial Election (2% Reporting)- TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Mayor Allan Fung (R)- 40.1%
Governor Gina Raimondo (D)*- 37.0%
Fmr. Governor Lincoln Chafee (M)- 22.9%

Tennessee Gubernatorial Race (2% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
Senator Bob Corker (R)- 55.1% ✓
Mayor Andy Berke (D)- 43.8%

Texas Gubernatorial Race (1% Reporting)- REPUBLICAN HOLD
Governor Greg Abbott (R)*- 64.2% ✓
Entrepreneur Andrew White (D)- 35.4%
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