2044 Electoral Map

[Skill and Chance]

You are missing the point NCYankee was trying to make with VA. Trying to predict the 2016 map in 1990 is extremely difficult given that a lot of the trends (including VA being used as an example of 1990 vs 2016) weren’t evident back then. The same can be said of Dixie in 1938 vs 1964, California in 1974 vs 2000, Vermont in 1970 vs 1996 etc.

Anybody trying to guarantee beyond just educated guessing that a specific state will vote a certain way in 26 years is being a little shortsighted. Coalitions can and often do shift drastically over 6+ presidential cycles.

Yes, VA voted 59%-39% for Bush in 1988. ILL voted 56%-39% for Clinton in 2016.


The missing element was generational change and diversification flipping NOVA. That couldn't be seen in 1990 when Millennials were at most 8 years old.

The massive G.H.W. Bush margins in the sunbelt states relative to the national PV were really a one time thing, though. 

[Skill and Chance]

I'll take a bit of a risk here:

Party polarization on social issues declines, but polarization by industry between manufacturers (GOP) and raw material producers/exporters (Dem) increases.  Deindustrialization spreads through New England and then to the NYC metro area, driving them toward a less religious and more populist GOP.  Tariffs cause a split in both the environmentalist and energy industry vote.  The GOP positions itself as the party for retirees and moderates enough on climate change to lock down Florida.  Meanwhile, big Dem gains in the Deep South and Plains states lead to a growing religious left bloc that is starting to make NorCal and the Pacific NW states uncomfortable.  Dems finally take the Mormon vote after a long period of flirtation with 3rd parties in Utah and Idaho.

Thoughts?