2044 Electoral Map

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I tend to think automation is going to drive politics and reallign certain voting blocs as a result over the next twenty years.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Mr. Timmy..

Illinois will be titanium D even in 2044!

1990: Virginia will be solid Republican, even in 2016.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I don't think ILL would ever be safe Republican, not sure who is saying that. I have always been of am ind that it could become like Florida, which is what was like for much of the mid 20th century as well.


It is not just "muh midwest", my theory is that if Republicans are isolated to the midwest, they have to balance trumpists with suburbs to have enough of a base their to be relevant. 

I imagine you will see in 2028 some kind of mild mannered Midwest Governor running on Entrepreneurship, Education, Fair Trade and Merit based immigration, with all the hard edges removed. I also suspect moderation on issues like LGBT, climate and FP as necessitated by the generational shift in the party.

I can see that getting to 45% or 46% in Illinois unless the Democratic candidate is from the midwest. Depending on third party siphoning, that would lead to some very close races.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You are missing the point NCYankee was trying to make with VA. Trying to predict the 2016 map in 1990 is extremely difficult given that a lot of the trends (including VA being used as an example of 1990 vs 2016) weren’t evident back then. The same can be said of Dixie in 1938 vs 1964, California in 1974 vs 2000, Vermont in 1970 vs 1996 etc.

Anybody trying to guarantee beyond just educated guessing that a specific state will vote a certain way in 26 years is being a little shortsighted. Coalitions can and often do shift drastically over 6+ presidential cycles.

Yes, VA voted 59%-39% for Bush in 1988. ILL voted 56%-39% for Clinton in 2016.


The missing element was generational change and diversification flipping NOVA. That couldn't be seen in 1990 when Millennials were at most 8 years old.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You are missing the point NCYankee was trying to make with VA. Trying to predict the 2016 map in 1990 is extremely difficult given that a lot of the trends (including VA being used as an example of 1990 vs 2016) weren’t evident back then. The same can be said of Dixie in 1938 vs 1964, California in 1974 vs 2000, Vermont in 1970 vs 1996 etc.

Anybody trying to guarantee beyond just educated guessing that a specific state will vote a certain way in 26 years is being a little shortsighted. Coalitions can and often do shift drastically over 6+ presidential cycles.

Yes, VA voted 59%-39% for Bush in 1988. ILL voted 56%-39% for Clinton in 2016.


The missing element was generational change and diversification flipping NOVA. That couldn't be seen in 1990 when Millennials were at most 8 years old.

The massive G.H.W. Bush margins in the sunbelt states relative to the national PV were really a one time thing, though. 

Quite, but the point is that VA was regarded as a Republican state, having voted Republican in every election since 1952, with the exception of 1964. It also then voted for Bush again and then for Bob Dole.