Let's imagine that Republicans keep their gains with the WWC and manage to retain appeal in suburbs at the same time. Democrats remain popular in urban areas and with minorities. Thus:
- Rust belt, including MN, becomes solidly R around 2024/2028 and stays that way for the next few elections. A booming Chicago under Mayor West keeps this trend from extending to Illinois.
- Rs also make inroads into the northeast: NY and NJ start going R thanks to stellar recovery efforts in the NYC metro by Pres. Haley after Hurricane Melchizedek in 2031 as well as aforementioned appeal in suburbs/upstate.
- Vermont has become more R ever since the death of Pres. Sanders from a stroke in 2022 and a subsequent feeling of abandonment starting with his successor, Pres. Harris, and New Hampshire and rural Maine pick up some of the R swing as well.
- Black populations in the southeast give states from VA to LA a huge Dem boost.
- Similarly, Hispanics in the sun belt continue to support Dems as well especially with the enshrining of an expanded DACA into law under Pres. Harris.
- In the PNW, aging hipsters and ex-pats from Generalissimo Elizabeth May's briefly independent Vancouver Island Commune start to swing the region to the Republicans as the party loosens its social conservative grip and residents realize that carbon taxes affect craft beer breweries.
- Florida is still as swingy as ever.
A map would look something like:
With current EV totals the Republican would narrowly win but I'd imagine redistricting would favour the south, so I'd call a Democratic victory in '44.
