2044 Electoral Map

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Is Chicago leaving Illinois?

Logically, if Texas and Georgia are Democratic states, the entire rust belt must be solid R because otherwise the map would always strongly favor Democrats depending on the swing states.

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Is Chicago leaving Illinois?

Logically, if Texas and Georgia are Democratic states, the entire rust belt must be solid R because otherwise the map would always strongly favor Democrats depending on the swing states.

I think we are likely headed for a dominant-party system where Democrats have an inbuilt advantage in presidential elections.
Hence, IL and MN are still Dem, and the rust belt is simply swingy like it has long been.
The GOP got its spell as a party with an inbuilt advantage - look at the period between 1968 and 1988.
Why wouldn't the Democrats get a similar opportunity? What goes around comes around.

Well, if Texas, Florida, and Georgia are Solid D by 2044, I don't see how Republicans can really even compete on the Presidential level. It would take a realignment for a Republican to win if it comes to that.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

FDR 2.0, aka as President Jon Tester, wins reelection in a 49-state landslide as the Democrats finally stick to their roots and shun their neoliberal Fairfax/Fairfield County-type base (which still votes for them becuz of demographics, unfortunately). NH, which remains a staggeringly elastic, libertarian, Independent-minded, contrarian, Republican state at heart (its loyalty to the GOP being rivaled only by Alf Landon’s Vermont), is the lone holdout, voting for Charlie Baker Jr. in his unsuccessful bid for the presidency. The most Democratic state is... right, it doesn’t really merit mention: Montana, naturally, where an ironclad coalition composed of pot-smoking, fat, VIOLENT farmers and other #populist, #libertarian WWC rural folk, latte liberals and affluent voters in the Bozeman area, Native Americans, blue state migrants from the West Coast, and of course educatidz in Missoula has turned the state into a socialist haven and ProgressiveCanadian’s favorite vacation spot.

... Am I doing this right? Seriously though, there is really no way to know what the map will look like in 26 (!) years, especially when you bear in mind how much has changed since 1992. A shot in the dark...

It will really come down to whether the GOP can hold/win Texas, Florida and North Carolina or not.

New Hampshire has almost always voted to the right of Maine, so the idea that Maine is going to become Likely R while New Hampshire is solid D is pretty hilarious. Equally ridiculous is the idea that Illinois is going to become a toss-up and Utah will only be Tilt-R. Also, by the time Georgia is Safe D, North Carolina almost certainly will be even Safer D.

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New Hampshire has almost always voted to the right of Maine, so the idea that Maine is going to become Likely R while New Hampshire is solid D is pretty hilarious.

“Virginia has almost always voted to the right of West Virginia, so the idea that West Virginia is going to become Likely R while Virginia is Solid D is pretty hilarious.” - TexArkana in 1996? (No, I’m not comparing ME to WV, but this argument is stupid.) Democrats still have a lot of room for growth in NH, too.

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Obviously the GOP would need to adapt for IL to become a Tossup, but they pretty much have to do that anyway under any scenario in which they want to remain relevant. Also, this is 2044, A LOT can happen, and it’s foolish to assume that the Electoral Map will be the same for all eternity. All that said, Illinois should still be a difficult state for the GOP to win. 

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We’ll just have to agree to disagree here. Obviously you could make a case for NC being Lean or Likely D as well, but I do believe GA is going the way of CO/VA in the long run, regardless of what “strategy” Democrats pursue.

With regards to New Hampshire and Maine, these two states are not going to dramatically change in the near future, in my opinion. The demographics of the two states aren't significantly changing, and I don't see a huge influx of liberals or immigrants or what have you. In the end though, it's entirely impossible to predict with any accuracy what an election held 26 years from now is going to look like. Compare the 1992 map to the 2016 map and there are huge, glaring differences that can't really be explained by linear trends or swings. Look at the large number of counties that voted Clinton >70% in 1992 or 1996 and voted Trump >70% in 2016, or the counties that Bush won easily that flipped to Hillary in 2016 (Gwinnett County being a prime example).

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Yeah, exactly (heck, Dole won Fairfax County 22 years ago, for example). All we can do is take a wild guess and laugh at it in 26 years.

And W. Bush won Fairfax County as well as recently as 2000.

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Obviously the GOP would need to adapt for IL to become a Tossup, but they pretty much have to do that anyway under any scenario in which they want to remain relevant. Also, this is 2044, A LOT can happen, and it’s foolish to assume that the Electoral Map will be the same for all eternity. All that said, Illinois should still be a difficult state for the GOP to win.

We all know as of now that Illinois is quite competitive on the state level.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=17&year=2016&f=1&off=10

Problem for the GOP there is that over the tenure of a Republicans time in office is that it is hard to meet the contradictory demands of both the collars and downstate. Also DuPage and Lake County seem to be moving to the Democratic party very quickly.

It is a tough nut to crack for the GOP even if they can be competitive there.

But like you said a lot can change over time. In 1992 Bush 1 carried Dupage County easily and Will was the only Collar County to vote Clinton while Southern Illinois was heavily for Clinton.

In 2016 Clinton carried all the Collar Counties except McHenry and the GOP could not even carry DuPage in the Senatorial contest. Hillary was annihilated in Southern Illinois.

Anyway here is my wild guess for 2044

This map could just as easily happen in 2020.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Why do Utah and West Virginia become much more competitive? Why is Alabama rock solid R when Mississippi and Louisiana are toss-ups? Shouldn't Virginia be a darker shade of red? And how does Vermont vote to the right of New Hampshire?

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If you ever have the time, I'd love to see a county map for this.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

This is my prediction of the 2044 electoral map.

Basically the slow trend of Racial polarization continues to a point where Republicans are winning 80% of the White vote, while Democrats are winning 90% of the Nonwhite vote. This results in very closely divided elections (in both the electoral and popular vote) who's outcome are solely based on Republicans turning out as many Whites as possible (primarily by using Racist appeals against Nonwhites), and Democrats turning out as many Nonwhites as possible (primarily by using Racist appeals against Whites). Economic issues are still discussed in campaigns, but only in an extremely racialized way, while Cultural issues dominate the discussion. This results in a very unstable and borderline Third-world country (America's economic and military power has diminished significantly due to a major economic crash caused by a massive equity bubble and over leveraged Corporate debt in the 2020s, combined with a embarrassing military defeat by Russia and China in the 2030s), in which elections are followed by large-scale civil unrest by whichever side loses them.

Even in 2044, if Republicans are winning 80% of the white vote I see no way they could possibly lose an election. Of course, this is ridiculous as no Republican since Nixon has won more than 66% of the white vote.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

am i like the only person on this forum who thinks race will depolarize...

No, if you look at the intense polarization that we're seeing today, I don't think it can last forever. eventually there will be a realignment or some event that causes the electorate to shift and depolarize.