2044 Electoral Map

[RINO Tom]

America isn't built for constant 1-party domination. I guess it's entirely possible (probably even likely) the Dems will win the majority of elections in the coming few decades, but I don't think it will become a borderline one-party state. In that case the Democrats would eventually become either too arrogant or too radical, and the GOP would adapt (though that might take some time with the recent radicalization of the GOP).

I think EASILY the most likely scenario is for Democrats to get a very, very significant governing and EC advantage by the 2040s that causes Republicans to move into a 1940s to 1960s position again of being the "measured, conservative, sensible" opposition to "radical liberal ideas."  This will, of course, allow some inroads into groups they're currently offending.  From there, it's anyone's guess how the GOP gets back to 1980s, 1990s and 2000s level strength again, but they will somehow.  These two parties have made it through an AWFUL lot.

[RINO Tom]

Why is Tennessee only lean Republican?

[RINO Tom]

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Obviously the GOP would need to adapt for IL to become a Tossup, but they pretty much have to do that anyway under any scenario in which they want to remain relevant. Also, this is 2044, A LOT can happen, and it’s foolish to assume that the Electoral Map will be the same for all eternity. All that said, Illinois should still be a difficult state for the GOP to win.

We all know as of now that Illinois is quite competitive on the state level.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=17&year=2016&f=1&off=10

Problem for the GOP there is that over the tenure of a Republicans time in office is that it is hard to meet the contradictory demands of both the collars and downstate. Also DuPage and Lake County seem to be moving to the Democratic party very quickly.

It is a tough nut to crack for the GOP even if they can be competitive there.

But like you said a lot can change over time. In 1992 Bush 1 carried Dupage County easily and Will was the only Collar County to vote Clinton while Southern Illinois was heavily for Clinton.

In 2016 Clinton carried all the Collar Counties except McHenry and the GOP could not even carry DuPage in the Senatorial contest. Hillary was annihilated in Southern Illinois.

Anyway here is my wild guess for 2044

This map could just as easily happen in 2020.

Ridiculous.

[RINO Tom]

am i like the only person on this forum who thinks race will depolarize...

I think pretty much everything will depolarize by the 2040s, bringing us into a "more complicated" political landscape like the 20th Century again, personally.

[RINO Tom]

Dems become more religious and further left on economics and social issues, republicans become irreligous and focus on an "anti-bureaucracy" platform, libertarians want less government regulation on businesses, laxer gun laws, while  the trumpists want less rules and regulations for police officers, less regulations on racial profiling etc.

While the first is kind of dubious, the second is very likely to happen.  Or were you referring to "becoming more religious" and moving "further left on social issues" at the same time?