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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2044 Electoral Map
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Author Topic: 2044 Electoral Map  (Read 7551 times)
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #50 on: April 13, 2018, 11:12:43 am »

Obviously older evangelicals will never vote D but younger ones might at SOME point. Democrats focusing on a message of "peace" and "morality", especially on economic issues. Social issues will fit in fine, except abortion. That's going to be tough to deal with.
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dw93
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« Reply #51 on: April 13, 2018, 10:36:19 pm »

Mr. Timmy..

Illinois will be titanium D even in 2044!

1990: Virginia will be solid Republican, even in 2016.

There are absolutely no indications or clues that Illinois will become a GOP state. If anything it will become more democratic.

It'll never be a Solid Republican state, but I doubt it gets more Democratic. Chicago isn't thriving the way major cities of the Sun Belt are and it's only a matter of time before Madigan's Machine unravels (he is in his 70s after all). IMHO, by 2024 it's lean Democratic for the Presidency, lean Republican at the state level, kind of like how Wisconsin was.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #52 on: April 14, 2018, 02:35:02 am »

I don't think ILL would ever be safe Republican, not sure who is saying that. I have always been of am ind that it could become like Florida, which is what was like for much of the mid 20th century as well.


It is not just "muh midwest", my theory is that if Republicans are isolated to the midwest, they have to balance trumpists with suburbs to have enough of a base their to be relevant. 

I imagine you will see in 2028 some kind of mild mannered Midwest Governor running on Entrepreneurship, Education, Fair Trade and Merit based immigration, with all the hard edges removed. I also suspect moderation on issues like LGBT, climate and FP as necessitated by the generational shift in the party.

I can see that getting to 45% or 46% in Illinois unless the Democratic candidate is from the midwest. Depending on third party siphoning, that would lead to some very close races.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #53 on: April 14, 2018, 02:37:29 am »

You are missing the point NCYankee was trying to make with VA. Trying to predict the 2016 map in 1990 is extremely difficult given that a lot of the trends (including VA being used as an example of 1990 vs 2016) weren’t evident back then. The same can be said of Dixie in 1938 vs 1964, California in 1974 vs 2000, Vermont in 1970 vs 1996 etc.

Anybody trying to guarantee beyond just educated guessing that a specific state will vote a certain way in 26 years is being a little shortsighted. Coalitions can and often do shift drastically over 6+ presidential cycles.

Yes, VA voted 59%-39% for Bush in 1988. ILL voted 56%-39% for Clinton in 2016.


The missing element was generational change and diversification flipping NOVA. That couldn't be seen in 1990 when Millennials were at most 8 years old.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #54 on: April 14, 2018, 09:25:44 pm »

You are missing the point NCYankee was trying to make with VA. Trying to predict the 2016 map in 1990 is extremely difficult given that a lot of the trends (including VA being used as an example of 1990 vs 2016) weren’t evident back then. The same can be said of Dixie in 1938 vs 1964, California in 1974 vs 2000, Vermont in 1970 vs 1996 etc.

Anybody trying to guarantee beyond just educated guessing that a specific state will vote a certain way in 26 years is being a little shortsighted. Coalitions can and often do shift drastically over 6+ presidential cycles.

Yes, VA voted 59%-39% for Bush in 1988. ILL voted 56%-39% for Clinton in 2016.


The missing element was generational change and diversification flipping NOVA. That couldn't be seen in 1990 when Millennials were at most 8 years old.

The massive G.H.W. Bush margins in the sunbelt states relative to the national PV were really a one time thing, though. 
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #55 on: April 18, 2018, 01:25:50 am »

You are missing the point NCYankee was trying to make with VA. Trying to predict the 2016 map in 1990 is extremely difficult given that a lot of the trends (including VA being used as an example of 1990 vs 2016) weren’t evident back then. The same can be said of Dixie in 1938 vs 1964, California in 1974 vs 2000, Vermont in 1970 vs 1996 etc.

Anybody trying to guarantee beyond just educated guessing that a specific state will vote a certain way in 26 years is being a little shortsighted. Coalitions can and often do shift drastically over 6+ presidential cycles.

Yes, VA voted 59%-39% for Bush in 1988. ILL voted 56%-39% for Clinton in 2016.


The missing element was generational change and diversification flipping NOVA. That couldn't be seen in 1990 when Millennials were at most 8 years old.

The massive G.H.W. Bush margins in the sunbelt states relative to the national PV were really a one time thing, though. 

Quite, but the point is that VA was regarded as a Republican state, having voted Republican in every election since 1952, with the exception of 1964. It also then voted for Bush again and then for Bob Dole.
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YE
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« Reply #56 on: April 18, 2018, 01:42:36 am »

1) Polarization will be a lot lower

2) My guess is as polarization decreases, the South (the most polarized area of the country by far and wide) goes back to its old Dem roots (this most likely doesn't happen until polarization goes down) while the de-secularized GOP starts doing well in the North. But by this point the seeds that cause the new Dem coalition to fall apart is unknown. My guess is suburbs turn GOP (resulting in a similar realignment again to the Reagan one) but I'm basically throwing darts on a board at this point.
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Seef
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« Reply #57 on: April 18, 2018, 03:49:42 pm »

Let's imagine that Republicans keep their gains with the WWC and manage to retain appeal in suburbs at the same time. Democrats remain popular in urban areas and with minorities. Thus:
  • Rust belt, including MN, becomes solidly R around 2024/2028 and stays that way for the next few elections. A booming Chicago under Mayor West keeps this trend from extending to Illinois.
  • Rs also make inroads into the northeast: NY and NJ start going R thanks to stellar recovery efforts in the NYC metro by Pres. Haley after Hurricane Melchizedek in 2031 as well as aforementioned appeal in suburbs/upstate.
  • Vermont has become more R ever since the death of Pres. Sanders from a stroke in 2022 and a subsequent feeling of abandonment starting with his successor, Pres. Harris, and New Hampshire and rural Maine pick up some of the R swing as well.
  • Black populations in the southeast give states from VA to LA a huge Dem boost.
  • Similarly, Hispanics in the sun belt continue to support Dems as well especially with the enshrining of an expanded DACA into law under Pres. Harris.
  • In the PNW, aging hipsters and ex-pats from Generalissimo Elizabeth May's briefly independent Vancouver Island Commune start to swing the region to the Republicans as the party loosens its social conservative grip and residents realize that carbon taxes affect craft beer breweries.
  • Florida is still as swingy as ever.

A map would look something like:

With current EV totals the Republican would narrowly win but I'd imagine redistricting would favour the south, so I'd call a Democratic victory in '44.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #58 on: April 18, 2018, 07:03:49 pm »

Let's imagine that Republicans keep their gains with the WWC and manage to retain appeal in suburbs at the same time. Democrats remain popular in urban areas and with minorities. Thus:
  • Rust belt, including MN, becomes solidly R around 2024/2028 and stays that way for the next few elections. A booming Chicago under Mayor West keeps this trend from extending to Illinois.
  • Rs also make inroads into the northeast: NY and NJ start going R thanks to stellar recovery efforts in the NYC metro by Pres. Haley after Hurricane Melchizedek in 2031 as well as aforementioned appeal in suburbs/upstate.
  • Vermont has become more R ever since the death of Pres. Sanders from a stroke in 2022 and a subsequent feeling of abandonment starting with his successor, Pres. Harris, and New Hampshire and rural Maine pick up some of the R swing as well.
  • Black populations in the southeast give states from VA to LA a huge Dem boost.
  • Similarly, Hispanics in the sun belt continue to support Dems as well especially with the enshrining of an expanded DACA into law under Pres. Harris.
  • In the PNW, aging hipsters and ex-pats from Generalissimo Elizabeth May's briefly independent Vancouver Island Commune start to swing the region to the Republicans as the party loosens its social conservative grip and residents realize that carbon taxes affect craft beer breweries.
  • Florida is still as swingy as ever.

A map would look something like:

With current EV totals the Republican would narrowly win but I'd imagine redistricting would favour the south, so I'd call a Democratic victory in '44.


This looks very similar to a Pre 1932 Map with exception of upper South and Florida
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khuzifenq
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« Reply #59 on: April 19, 2018, 01:23:41 am »

Let's imagine that Republicans keep their gains with the WWC and manage to retain appeal in suburbs at the same time. Democrats remain popular in urban areas and with minorities. Thus:
  • Rust belt, including MN, becomes solidly R around 2024/2028 and stays that way for the next few elections. A booming Chicago under Mayor West keeps this trend from extending to Illinois.
  • Rs also make inroads into the northeast: NY and NJ start going R thanks to stellar recovery efforts in the NYC metro by Pres. Haley after Hurricane Melchizedek in 2031 as well as aforementioned appeal in suburbs/upstate.
  • Vermont has become more R ever since the death of Pres. Sanders from a stroke in 2022 and a subsequent feeling of abandonment starting with his successor, Pres. Harris, and New Hampshire and rural Maine pick up some of the R swing as well.
  • Black populations in the southeast give states from VA to LA a huge Dem boost.
  • Similarly, Hispanics in the sun belt continue to support Dems as well especially with the enshrining of an expanded DACA into law under Pres. Harris.
  • In the PNW, aging hipsters and ex-pats from Generalissimo Elizabeth May's briefly independent Vancouver Island Commune start to swing the region to the Republicans as the party loosens its social conservative grip and residents realize that carbon taxes affect craft beer breweries.
  • Florida is still as swingy as ever.

A map would look something like:

With current EV totals the Republican would narrowly win but I'd imagine redistricting would favour the south, so I'd call a Democratic victory in '44.


Somewhat ironic since carbon taxes have been proposed as a more market-friendly policy solution that would appeal to economically/fiscally conservative Republicans.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #60 on: April 19, 2018, 01:30:04 am »

To be totz the honest with you, I do not imagine even a ten percent chance that California will be the most populated state by 2044. I think Texas will finally take over at the rate it is going. As for the electoral votes itself, congress better change the constitution to get rid of the god awful 538 idea and start going by the Wyoming rule
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #61 on: April 22, 2018, 03:32:43 pm »

I'll take a bit of a risk here:



Party polarization on social issues declines, but polarization by industry between manufacturers (GOP) and raw material producers/exporters (Dem) increases.  Deindustrialization spreads through New England and then to the NYC metro area, driving them toward a less religious and more populist GOP.  Tariffs cause a split in both the environmentalist and energy industry vote.  The GOP positions itself as the party for retirees and moderates enough on climate change to lock down Florida.  Meanwhile, big Dem gains in the Deep South and Plains states lead to a growing religious left bloc that is starting to make NorCal and the Pacific NW states uncomfortable.  Dems finally take the Mormon vote after a long period of flirtation with 3rd parties in Utah and Idaho.

Thoughts?
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