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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2044 Electoral Map
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Author Topic: 2044 Electoral Map  (Read 7557 times)
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #25 on: April 08, 2018, 04:01:03 pm »

If you ever have the time, I'd love to see a county map for this.
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WestVegeta
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« Reply #26 on: April 09, 2018, 01:10:05 pm »

Logically, if Texas and Georgia are Democratic states, the entire rust belt must be solid R because otherwise the map would always strongly favor Democrats depending on the swing states.
I think we are likely headed for a dominant-party system where Democrats have an inbuilt advantage in presidential elections.
Hence, IL and MN are still Dem, and the rust belt is simply swingy like it has long been.
The GOP got its spell as a party with an inbuilt advantage - look at the period between 1968 and 1988.
Why wouldn't the Democrats get a similar opportunity? What goes around comes around.

Agreed. Republicans don't seem to have a great path to 270 once the sun belt becomes a little more Democratic.

They'll have their wilderness years, but I'm sure some candidate will be able to figure out a new direction for the party, a la Clinton in '92
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dw93
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« Reply #27 on: April 10, 2018, 01:02:03 am »

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King Lear
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« Reply #28 on: April 10, 2018, 03:28:05 am »

This is my prediction of the 2044 electoral map.


Basically the slow trend of Racial polarization continues to a point where Republicans are winning 80% of the White vote, while Democrats are winning 90% of the Nonwhite vote. This results in very closely divided elections (in both the electoral and popular vote) who's outcome are solely based on Republicans turning out as many Whites as possible (primarily by using Racist appeals against Nonwhites), and Democrats turning out as many Nonwhites as possible (primarily by using Racist appeals against Whites). Economic issues are still discussed in campaigns, but only in an extremely racialized way, while Cultural issues dominate the discussion. This results in a very unstable and borderline Third-world country (America's economic and military power has diminished significantly due to a major economic crash caused by a massive equity bubble and over leveraged Corporate debt in the 2020s, combined with a embarrassing military defeat by Russia and China in the 2030s), in which elections are followed by large-scale civil unrest by whichever side loses them.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #29 on: April 10, 2018, 10:57:19 am »

This is my prediction of the 2044 electoral map.


Basically the slow trend of Racial polarization continues to a point where Republicans are winning 80% of the White vote, while Democrats are winning 90% of the Nonwhite vote. This results in very closely divided elections (in both the electoral and popular vote) who's outcome are solely based on Republicans turning out as many Whites as possible (primarily by using Racist appeals against Nonwhites), and Democrats turning out as many Nonwhites as possible (primarily by using Racist appeals against Whites). Economic issues are still discussed in campaigns, but only in an extremely racialized way, while Cultural issues dominate the discussion. This results in a very unstable and borderline Third-world country (America's economic and military power has diminished significantly due to a major economic crash caused by a massive equity bubble and over leveraged Corporate debt in the 2020s, combined with a embarrassing military defeat by Russia and China in the 2030s), in which elections are followed by large-scale civil unrest by whichever side loses them.
Even in 2044, if Republicans are winning 80% of the white vote I see no way they could possibly lose an election. Of course, this is ridiculous as no Republican since Nixon has won more than 66% of the white vote.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #30 on: April 10, 2018, 11:28:47 am »

This is my prediction of the 2044 electoral map.


Basically the slow trend of Racial polarization continues to a point where Republicans are winning 80% of the White vote, while Democrats are winning 90% of the Nonwhite vote. This results in very closely divided elections (in both the electoral and popular vote) who's outcome are solely based on Republicans turning out as many Whites as possible (primarily by using Racist appeals against Nonwhites), and Democrats turning out as many Nonwhites as possible (primarily by using Racist appeals against Whites). Economic issues are still discussed in campaigns, but only in an extremely racialized way, while Cultural issues dominate the discussion. This results in a very unstable and borderline Third-world country (America's economic and military power has diminished significantly due to a major economic crash caused by a massive equity bubble and over leveraged Corporate debt in the 2020s, combined with a embarrassing military defeat by Russia and China in the 2030s), in which elections are followed by large-scale civil unrest by whichever side loses them.


LMAO




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cvparty
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« Reply #31 on: April 10, 2018, 01:53:25 pm »

am i like the only person on this forum who thinks race will depolarize...
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #32 on: April 10, 2018, 02:00:21 pm »

am i like the only person on this forum who thinks race will depolarize...
No, if you look at the intense polarization that we're seeing today, I don't think it can last forever. eventually there will be a realignment or some event that causes the electorate to shift and depolarize.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #33 on: April 10, 2018, 03:20:50 pm »

am i like the only person on this forum who thinks race will depolarize...

I think pretty much everything will depolarize by the 2040s, bringing us into a "more complicated" political landscape like the 20th Century again, personally.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #34 on: April 10, 2018, 11:16:24 pm »

I have some issues with this, but this is roughly based on a scenario where race becomes irrelevant to voting patterns and religion becomes everything.  While the colors are based on safe/likely/lean, it's possible that Mississippi would literally be R>90 in this scenario.  I left Utah and Idaho blank because they are below the national average of religiosity, but the religious influence is clearly very strong in the religious group.

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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #35 on: April 11, 2018, 03:32:09 pm »


Dems become more religious and further left on economics and social issues, republicans become irreligous and focus on an "anti-bureaucracy" platform, libertarians want less government regulation on businesses, laxer gun laws, while  the trumpists want less rules and regulations for police officers, less regulations on racial profiling etc.
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Not a Partisan Hack ( ͡~ ͜ʖ ͡°)
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« Reply #36 on: April 11, 2018, 08:00:14 pm »

This is my prediction of the 2044 electoral map.


Basically the slow trend of Racial polarization continues to a point where Republicans are winning 80% of the White vote, while Democrats are winning 90% of the Nonwhite vote. This results in very closely divided elections (in both the electoral and popular vote) who's outcome are solely based on Republicans turning out as many Whites as possible (primarily by using Racist appeals against Nonwhites), and Democrats turning out as many Nonwhites as possible (primarily by using Racist appeals against Whites). Economic issues are still discussed in campaigns, but only in an extremely racialized way, while Cultural issues dominate the discussion. This results in a very unstable and borderline Third-world country (America's economic and military power has diminished significantly due to a major economic crash caused by a massive equity bubble and over leveraged Corporate debt in the 2020s, combined with a embarrassing military defeat by Russia and China in the 2030s), in which elections are followed by large-scale civil unrest by whichever side loses them.


LMAO





Well, it is King Lear...

For once i think King Lear is being serious, I mean we are swindled with corporate debt.
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Gucci Slides
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« Reply #37 on: April 11, 2018, 09:33:18 pm »

when ppl realize how awesome being a neoconservative is.

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Sadader
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« Reply #38 on: April 12, 2018, 05:16:33 am »

This is my prediction of the 2044 electoral map.


Basically the slow trend of Racial polarization continues to a point where Republicans are winning 80% of the White vote, while Democrats are winning 90% of the Nonwhite vote. This results in very closely divided elections (in both the electoral and popular vote) who's outcome are solely based on Republicans turning out as many Whites as possible (primarily by using Racist appeals against Nonwhites), and Democrats turning out as many Nonwhites as possible (primarily by using Racist appeals against Whites). Economic issues are still discussed in campaigns, but only in an extremely racialized way, while Cultural issues dominate the discussion. This results in a very unstable and borderline Third-world country (America's economic and military power has diminished significantly due to a major economic crash caused by a massive equity bubble and over leveraged Corporate debt in the 2020s, combined with a embarrassing military defeat by Russia and China in the 2030s), in which elections are followed by large-scale civil unrest by whichever side loses them.


LMAO





Well, it is King Lear...

For once i think King Lear is being serious, I mean we are swindled with corporate debt.

King Lear, Economics PhD.

(Corporate debt isn’t a major problem, and I don’t think any forum sh**tposter is a good source for forecasting)
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #39 on: April 12, 2018, 05:32:12 am »

I tend to think automation is going to drive politics and reallign certain voting blocs as a result over the next twenty years.

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wxtransit
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« Reply #40 on: April 12, 2018, 08:02:37 am »


Dems become more religious and further left on economics and social issues, republicans become irreligous and focus on an "anti-bureaucracy" platform, libertarians want less government regulation on businesses, laxer gun laws, while  the trumpists want less rules and regulations for police officers, less regulations on racial profiling etc.

Huh
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #41 on: April 12, 2018, 09:17:29 am »


Dems become more religious and further left on economics and social issues, republicans become irreligous and focus on an "anti-bureaucracy" platform, libertarians want less government regulation on businesses, laxer gun laws, while  the trumpists want less rules and regulations for police officers, less regulations on racial profiling etc.

Huh

While the first is kind of dubious, the second is very likely to happen.  Or were you referring to "becoming more religious" and moving "further left on social issues" at the same time?
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wxtransit
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« Reply #42 on: April 12, 2018, 01:09:45 pm »


Dems become more religious and further left on economics and social issues, republicans become irreligous and focus on an "anti-bureaucracy" platform, libertarians want less government regulation on businesses, laxer gun laws, while  the trumpists want less rules and regulations for police officers, less regulations on racial profiling etc.

Huh

While the first is kind of dubious, the second is very likely to happen.  Or were you referring to "becoming more religious" and moving "further left on social issues" at the same time?

The latter, becoming more religious and socially liberal, which, if religious refers to evangelical (which it most likely is), is basically an oxymoron.
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AZN_Baby_Girl
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« Reply #43 on: April 12, 2018, 02:54:54 pm »
« Edited: April 13, 2018, 12:13:54 pm by khuzifenq »


Dems become more religious and further left on economics and social issues, republicans become irreligous and focus on an "anti-bureaucracy" platform, libertarians want less government regulation on businesses, laxer gun laws, while  the trumpists want less rules and regulations for police officers, less regulations on racial profiling etc.

Huh

While the first is kind of dubious, the second is very likely to happen.  Or were you referring to "becoming more religious" and moving "further left on social issues" at the same time?

GOP attracting irreligious voters and Dems attracting Mormons is plausible at the very least. The only issue I have with this map is LA and MS being Solid Dem, but I'll give BernieBro the benefit of the doubt. I don't see the contradiction between "religious" and "socially liberal" because I think the wedge social issues among my generation will be different from those of the recent past.
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AZN_Baby_Girl
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« Reply #44 on: April 12, 2018, 03:34:52 pm »
« Edited: April 12, 2018, 03:41:55 pm by khuzifenq »



My take on electoral college reapportionment + BernieBro's scenario in a 50/50 election, which doesn't seem too far off from AN63093's prediction or King Lear's.
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jimmie
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« Reply #45 on: April 13, 2018, 01:06:49 am »

Mr. Timmy..

Illinois will be titanium D even in 2044!
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #46 on: April 13, 2018, 01:14:41 am »

Mr. Timmy..

Illinois will be titanium D even in 2044!
Which Timmy?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #47 on: April 13, 2018, 01:37:08 am »

Mr. Timmy..

Illinois will be titanium D even in 2044!

1990: Virginia will be solid Republican, even in 2016.
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #48 on: April 13, 2018, 01:40:26 am »

Mr. Timmy..

Illinois will be titanium D even in 2044!

1990: Virginia will be solid Republican, even in 2016.
From where do the GOP votes come from in Illinois, enough to overwhelm Chicago?
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jimmie
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« Reply #49 on: April 13, 2018, 06:35:31 am »

Mr. Timmy..

Illinois will be titanium D even in 2044!

1990: Virginia will be solid Republican, even in 2016.

There are absolutely no indications or clues that Illinois will become a GOP state. If anything it will become more democratic.
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