What counties will Cynthia Nixon win?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well?

[Dr. MB]

All of Upstate minus Erie, Niagara, the Rochester one, and a couple more in that area.

[Tintrlvr]

About the same as this or slightly weaker (not necessarily in percentage overall but in counties because Teachout was from the Hudson Valley but Nixon is from NYC and so will do slightly better in NYC but noticeably worse upstate): http://alloveralbany.com/archive/2014/09/10/clickable-county-by-county-results-for-the-cuomo-t

If I had to guess county changes, Nixon wins New York County (Manhattan) but loses some of Teachout's narrow wins, like Wayne, Ontario, Chenango, Tioga, Madison, Clinton and Essex.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It should look like a D vs. R election, with Nixon winning most of upstate and Coumo doing very well in NYC.

[Ye We Can]

At this current juncture I think she'll be weaker than Teachout. She'll perform way worse upstate, but will carry a few low turnout upstate counties, and maybe a bit better in NYC.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Honestly, if the primary is tied, it would probably look like this:



However I still think Cuomo is likely to prevail by about a 10-20 point margin.

2014 primary for reference.

[Holmes]

Why wouldn't Manhattan go for Cuomo in a tied race?

[Strudelcutie4427]

Tompkins, maybe Clinton and Essex

[Jeppe]

Why wouldn't Manhattan go for Cuomo in a tied race?

Manhattan was Cuomo’s weakest borough in 2014. It’s also the whitest borough (aside from Staten Island), and also where Nixon is currently polling the strongest.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Probably none because she won't break 25%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Probably none because she won't break 25%

If Zephyr Teachout can take 34% of the vote, so can Cynthia Nixon.

[Fudotei]

All of them.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Nixon will get 45% imo she will win new york and maybe buffalo while Cuomo will slay up state and long island and staten island

Cuomo is more popular in NYC Proper then Upstate. In a close race Nixon should more or less sweep upstate NY with the exception of the population centers.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

All of them.

I agree, if it's revealed that Cuomo is a member of a sex cult that sacrifices animals.

[KingSweden]

It should look like a D vs. R election, with Nixon winning most of upstate and Coumo doing very well in NYC.

[DemocraticKing]

Nixon wins New York County (Manhattan)

Ha ha ha ha ha ha. No.

[DemocraticKing]

The only correct answer is a bunch of low-pop upstate counties protest voting. NYC metro and upstate pop centers go for Cuomo, NYC especially hard, outer suburbs lesser, but still for him.  Nixon's best county will be.. who knows. Somewhere sparsely populated. She *might* perform above expectations in Erie or Albany counties, but most likely not enough to win them. I expect her to get between 30-35%.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The only correct answer is a bunch of low-pop upstate counties protest voting. NYC metro and upstate pop centers go for Cuomo, NYC especially hard, outer suburbs lesser, but still for him.  Nixon's best county will be.. who knows. Somewhere sparsely populated. She *might* perform above expectations in Erie or Albany counties, but most likely not enough to win them. I expect her to get between 30-35%.

Hamilton County?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Tompkins could be a candidate for highest Nixon percentage considering Teachout got 70% here while getting 34% statewide. Were Nixon to win (which I do think is within the realm of possibility given the Cuomo fatigue if her message resonates in the upstate urban centers and especially NYC, crazier things have happened though it's still not likely) she'd probably be getting Kim Jong-Un numbers in Tompkins.

[DemocraticKing]

Tompkins could be a candidate for highest Nixon percentage considering Teachout got 70% here while getting 34% statewide. Were Nixon to win (which I do think is within the realm of possibility given the Cuomo fatigue if her message resonates in the upstate urban centers and especially NYC, crazier things have happened though it's still not likely) she'd probably be getting Kim Jong-Un numbers in Tompkins.

I forgot about Tompkins. That'll be her best, for sure.

[Skye]

Probably none because she won't break 25%

If Zephyr Teachout can take 34% of the vote, so can Cynthia Nixon.

Pretty much this. She would be an absolute disappointment if she underperformed Teachout.

[Duke of York]

Tompkins for sure and probably a few others upstate but I couldn't say for sure which ones.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Probably none because she won't break 25%