UT-04 is trending towards democrats, but McAdams was a very solid candidate.
Sure candidate quality counts 100% agreed....
Obviously one of the biggest questions in Utah Congressional Elections, were the results in CD-04 a fluke, or perhaps something that portends a larger and longer term shift, among educated and Middle-Class Voters in Metro SLC (Including Mormon Voters that used to be much more predisposed to Vote DEM back in the '70s, became overwhelming PUB starting in the '80s, and now you have a ton of young Mormon Millennials that don't see eye to eye with their parents on a variety of issues. (
).
2020 could be extremely interesting in Utah with Trump on the ballot....
Utah is a very interesting state. I would actually argue it is trending "normal republican" statewide, due to high levels of growth in Utah County and further solidification of rural areas into the republican coalition. With that being said, Salt Lake County is trending towards democrats, and this redistricting committee will be huge for democrats in Utah. They are essentially gaining a seat for sure, unless This commission was more like the Florida commission and less like the California commission.
As for Utah 2020, I suspect a result where Trump cracks 55%, democrats taking 30%, and various third parties taking the rest. Utah county, which, as preciously mentioned, has major growth compared to the rest of Utah, will be one to watch. Do democrats break 20%? are they going to make a dent into mormons? I am excited to see, and for your detailed analysis!
