Poll: Democrats leading in enough seats to flip the Texas House
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  Poll: Democrats leading in enough seats to flip the Texas House
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Author Topic: Poll: Democrats leading in enough seats to flip the Texas House  (Read 1378 times)
Gass3268
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« on: October 13, 2020, 02:42:53 PM »

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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2020, 02:58:33 PM »

This would be so huge. Flipping the State House would block Republican efforts to gerrymander after the 2020 census. I'm glad they have put in tons of ressources in the state. Even if Joe Biden narrowly falls short, investing in Texas is very smart, though I'm not sure the State House actually flips in case Joe Biden doesn't carry the state.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #2 on: October 13, 2020, 03:25:17 PM »
« Edited: October 13, 2020, 04:26:42 PM by Roll Roons »

No crosstabs? This looks a little too D-favorable to me. Especially HD134 - I don't buy for a second that Davis is running behind Trump.

Edit: It turns out that this was conducted by Chism Strategies, which is a D pollster.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: October 13, 2020, 03:58:07 PM »

At least 400 likely voters per district
MoE: 4.89%, presumably for each district

It should be noted these 22 districts are mostly suburban. Additionally, the release implies the state house polls names candidates, so this is not a generic ballot.

These the Republican-to-Democratic flips this poll indicates: HD26, HD54, HD66, HD67, HD94, HD96, HD97, HD108, HD112, HD134 and HD138. It indicates no Democratic-to-Republican flips.

If undecided voters broke evenly, Democrats would take the state house, 78 seats to 72.
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Red Wall
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2020, 07:37:52 AM »

Lackluster early voting numbers say otherwise. And Harris is the least dem of the big dem counties while Denton is a solid R county.

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Lognog
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2020, 09:19:47 AM »

Lackluster early voting numbers say otherwise. And Harris is the least dem of the big dem counties while Denton is a solid R county.



yeaahhhhhh I wouldn't exactly use those numbers to prove that Republicans are doing well in Texas...

Harris County is a Democratic powerhouse by now that's growing in size and atlas shades of red. I would not want to see that as a Republican
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2020, 09:28:06 AM »

Lackluster early voting numbers say otherwise. And Harris is the least dem of the big dem counties while Denton is a solid R county.

snip

yeaahhhhhh I wouldn't exactly use those numbers to prove that Republicans are doing well in Texas...

Harris County is a Democratic powerhouse by now that's growing in size and atlas shades of red. I would not want to see that as a Republican

Nah...Dallas County netted >30k more votes for Clinton in 2016 than Harris did, even though Harris had almost 2x the total number of votes.  That EV seems up in very Republican Montgomery and Denton while it's flat in Dallas makes me think it's conservative exurbs driving the trend.
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Lognog
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2020, 09:45:16 AM »

Lackluster early voting numbers say otherwise. And Harris is the least dem of the big dem counties while Denton is a solid R county.

snip

yeaahhhhhh I wouldn't exactly use those numbers to prove that Republicans are doing well in Texas...

Harris County is a Democratic powerhouse by now that's growing in size and atlas shades of red. I would not want to see that as a Republican

Nah...Dallas County netted >30k more votes for Clinton in 2016 than Harris did, even though Harris had almost 2x the total number of votes.  That EV seems up in very Republican Montgomery and Denton while it's flat in Dallas makes me think it's conservative exurbs driving the trend.

Harris isn't as a democratic as Dallas but the the fact that it went from tied in 08 and 12 to D+13 four years means its going left and fast (also was D+17 for Beto). It's getting bigger and more democratic every year. I don't think we can assume where the turnout is coming from, but Harris turnout is not good for the GOP
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S019
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2020, 09:58:43 AM »

These are generic ballot tests, they aren't used named candidates, (134 should give that away) so pretty useless, honestly
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2020, 10:02:14 AM »

These are generic ballot tests, they aren't used named candidates, (134 should give that away) so pretty useless, honestly

I think not. The article specifically refers to "a generic Congressional ballot," but for the state house, it says incumbents are trailing/hold comfortable leads and differentiates between GOP candidates and GOP incumbents in Republican-held districts.

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RINO Tom
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2020, 10:15:49 AM »

If Texas' House flips, imagine how weird that would be for this guy.  He was elected as a Republican in 1968 and served as the first GOP Speaker since Reconstruction.  He's STILL in the House and could see it swing back to the Democrats under somewhat similar types of downballot trends that delivered it to the GOP back in 2004.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2020, 02:06:43 PM »

hot take: id rather flip the texas state house than have biden win texas
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2020, 02:11:22 PM »

hot take: id rather flip the texas state house than have biden win texas

The thing is, one of those likely assumes the other happens simultaneously. Biden will probably outrun local Dems a little.
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Torrain
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2020, 06:34:51 PM »

hot take: id rather flip the texas state house than have biden win texas

If given the choice? 100%

I’ll take a fair Texas congressional map, and a check on the Texas governor over a few more electoral votes for Biden any day. (Not that I wouldn’t love him to win the state)
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #14 on: October 14, 2020, 06:36:47 PM »

hot take: id rather flip the texas state house than have biden win texas

Obviously.  If Biden were to win Texas, he would already have more than enough electoral votes to win.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2020, 12:25:24 PM »

This would be so huge. Flipping the State House would block Republican efforts to gerrymander after the 2020 census. I'm glad they have put in tons of ressources in the state. Even if Joe Biden narrowly falls short, investing in Texas is very smart, though I'm not sure the State House actually flips in case Joe Biden doesn't carry the state.

Pretty sure that if the TX state House and senate deadlock it goes to some sort of comission where like 4/5 officers would be Republicans?

So still allows for a gerrymander, just with slightly more effort.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2020, 12:27:25 PM »

This would be so huge. Flipping the State House would block Republican efforts to gerrymander after the 2020 census. I'm glad they have put in tons of ressources in the state. Even if Joe Biden narrowly falls short, investing in Texas is very smart, though I'm not sure the State House actually flips in case Joe Biden doesn't carry the state.

Pretty sure that if the TX state House and senate deadlock it goes to some sort of comission where like 4/5 officers would be Republicans?

So still allows for a gerrymander, just with slightly more effort.

It stops them implementing the proposed "state electoral college", a.k.a. the gerrymandering of the governorship/row offices.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2020, 12:29:21 PM »

This would be so huge. Flipping the State House would block Republican efforts to gerrymander after the 2020 census. I'm glad they have put in tons of ressources in the state. Even if Joe Biden narrowly falls short, investing in Texas is very smart, though I'm not sure the State House actually flips in case Joe Biden doesn't carry the state.

Pretty sure that if the TX state House and senate deadlock it goes to some sort of comission where like 4/5 officers would be Republicans?



So still allows for a gerrymander, just with slightly more effort.

That is just for the state legislative redistricting.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #18 on: October 15, 2020, 12:46:26 PM »

^^, congressional goes to the court for 2022. A bold move by the Texas GOP is to take the average of the decade races in 2010 and ask for a "proportional" map in court.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2020, 01:11:53 PM »

Nah...Dallas County netted >30k more votes for Clinton in 2016 than Harris did, even though Harris had almost 2x the total number of votes.  That EV seems up in very Republican Montgomery and Denton while it's flat in Dallas makes me think it's conservative exurbs driving the trend.

Bold of you to think Denton will be heavily Republican and that all these new voters match the historical breakdown of the county.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2020, 01:46:51 PM »

Lackluster early voting numbers say otherwise. And Harris is the least dem of the big dem counties while Denton is a solid R county.

snip

yeaahhhhhh I wouldn't exactly use those numbers to prove that Republicans are doing well in Texas...

Harris County is a Democratic powerhouse by now that's growing in size and atlas shades of red. I would not want to see that as a Republican

Nah...Dallas County netted >30k more votes for Clinton in 2016 than Harris did, even though Harris had almost 2x the total number of votes.  That EV seems up in very Republican Montgomery and Denton while it's flat in Dallas makes me think it's conservative exurbs driving the trend.

Denton county is no longer very republican. Trump will be lucky to even net 30k out of Denton county this time.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2020, 03:30:57 PM »

Lackluster early voting numbers say otherwise. And Harris is the least dem of the big dem counties while Denton is a solid R county.



Except that votes from voters with a D primary history are outnumbering those with an R primary history by a lot statewide: https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/7712c271-f274-4cf0-8bfd-8e982ee0bc82/Statewide_Report_Day_2.04.pdf (this is from a Republican consultant in Texas, by the way.)
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Samof94
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« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2020, 04:31:01 PM »

This would be so huge. Flipping the State House would block Republican efforts to gerrymander after the 2020 census. I'm glad they have put in tons of ressources in the state. Even if Joe Biden narrowly falls short, investing in Texas is very smart, though I'm not sure the State House actually flips in case Joe Biden doesn't carry the state.

Pretty sure that if the TX state House and senate deadlock it goes to some sort of comission where like 4/5 officers would be Republicans?

So still allows for a gerrymander, just with slightly more effort.
There is literally such a thing in Mississippi for Governor introduced during segregation.

It stops them implementing the proposed "state electoral college", a.k.a. the gerrymandering of the governorship/row offices.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2020, 04:43:33 PM »

This would be so huge. Flipping the State House would block Republican efforts to gerrymander after the 2020 census. I'm glad they have put in tons of ressources in the state. Even if Joe Biden narrowly falls short, investing in Texas is very smart, though I'm not sure the State House actually flips in case Joe Biden doesn't carry the state.

Pretty sure that if the TX state House and senate deadlock it goes to some sort of comission where like 4/5 officers would be Republicans?

So still allows for a gerrymander, just with slightly more effort.

It stops them implementing the proposed "state electoral college", a.k.a. the gerrymandering of the governorship/row offices.

A court during 2019 basically said keep it for now but we are warning you this could be illegal and MS is seeking to change that system. The MS GOP voted for a new system to be in place and it is on the ballot.
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