Day 27: Nebraska

[pbrower2a]

Yes. Although going by the last presidential election results it's about as winnable as Indiana.

Indiana and greater Omaha voted almost exactly alike -- marginally for Obama and decidedly more Republican than the nation at large. Both will vote marginally for Obama, and decidedly more Republican than the nation as a whole, should Obama win 380 or so electoral votes (because Obama will more likely win Arizona than either Indiana or NE-02 in 2012 -- that's how I equalize performance).

But back to Nebraska. In order of the likelihood of Obama winning any of the five electoral votes, from most to least likely are:

NE-02 (Obama wins about 53% of the popular vote and 380 or so electoral votes: it travels with Indiana or Missouri)

NE-01 (Obama wins about 55% of the popular vote and about 420 electoral votes, probably traveling with the Dakotas)

NE (Obama wins these two at-large electoral votes with about 58% of the popular vote, probably "after" Texas and "before" Kansas with about 480 electoral votes)

NE-03 (Obama probably needs 63% of the popular vote to win what may be the toughest electoral vote in America. Travels with Wyoming.     

 

[pbrower2a]

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I would say, Obama would have to win the national popular vote by almost 70% to win NE-03, which is just about impossible. And even then, it would be extremely close. If a Republican only won 1 district in America, my bet would be that this is the one.

I'd be very concerned if any Presidential candidate won 70% or more of the popular vote -- that's about what Hugo Chavez wins.