State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Ted Gaines is still in the lead for District 1 of the Board of Equalization in California. He currently represents the first senate district (rural Northeastern CA and Sacramento Suburbs) and as such, him winning the BoE election would mean that he would have to resign from the state senate and cause a special election. I’m in Gaines’s district, so I’ll try to keep you guys up to date.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Brian Dahle announces run for California’s 1st Senate District.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sen Ted Gaines (R-CA-1) will be resigning to take a seat on the Board of Equalization that he won earlier this month. I don’t have a date for the election yet, but it will be happening.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Brian Dahle announces run for California’s 1st Senate District.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sen Ted Gaines (R-CA-1) will be resigning to take a seat on the Board of Equalization that he won earlier this month. I don’t have a date for the election yet, but it will be happening.

Rex Hime announces that he will run for CA Sen-1.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So far, it’s 2 Republicans and no Dems.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

The CA Sen-1 Clown car continues to fill up. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley of the 6th District is running and incumbent Ted Gaines’ wife, Beth (also Kiley’s predecessor) is thought to be planning a run.

Source: The Sacramento Bee

That brings it up to 3 confirmed Republicans, with a 4th likely to announce soon. No Democrats have announced; it’s a very Republican district.

Party Affiliations: 41% R, 28.5% D, 22.5% NPP

If I had to pick a Republican to win, I’d vote for Kiley so that my assembly district gets a special election.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

The CA Sen-1 Clown car continues to fill up. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley of the 6th District is running and incumbent Ted Gaines’ wife, Beth (also Kiley’s predecessor) is thought to be planning a run.

Source: The Sacramento Bee

That brings it up to 3 confirmed Republicans, with a 4th likely to announce soon. No Democrats have announced; it’s a very Republican district.

Party Affiliations: 41% R, 28.5% D, 22.5% NPP

If I had to pick a Republican to win, I’d vote for Kiley so that my assembly district gets a special election.

Isn't Kiley's district Republican too?

Yeah, Kiley won something like 58-42 or so this year.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

The CA Sen-1 Clown car continues to fill up. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley of the 6th District is running and incumbent Ted Gaines’ wife, Beth (also Kiley’s predecessor) is thought to be planning a run.

Source: The Sacramento Bee

That brings it up to 3 confirmed Republicans, with a 4th likely to announce soon. No Democrats have announced; it’s a very Republican district.

Party Affiliations: 41% R, 28.5% D, 22.5% NPP

If I had to pick a Republican to win, I’d vote for Kiley so that my assembly district gets a special election.

Isn't Kiley's district Republican too?

Yeah, Kiley won something like 58-42 or so this year.

So, you will simply get another Republican in Assembly...

Almost certainly, but special elections are still fun.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Just found out that CA BoE terms don’t start until the first week of January. I doubt Ted Gaines (CA-Sen 1) will resign before January in this case. Doesn’t mean that more vultures won’t circle overhead though.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Newsom set dates for the California special senate elections (Seats 1 and 33, held by Gaines and Lara, respectively). March 26 for the primary and June 4 for the general. There will be no general election in the event that a candidate breaks 50% in the primary.

Source

Not sure about 33, but I guarantee that there will be a general election for the 1st district. It’s heavily Republican and two current Republican assemblymen and a Republican former assemblywoman are running along with at least one other Republican. Haven’t heard about any Democrats running yet.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Newsom set dates for the California special senate elections (Seats 1 and 33, held by Gaines and Lara, respectively). March 26 for the primary and June 4 for the general. There will be no general election in the event that a candidate breaks 50% in the primary.

Source

Not sure about 33, but I guarantee that there will be a general election for the 1st district. It’s heavily Republican and two current Republican assemblymen and a Republican former assemblywoman are running along with at least one other Republican. Haven’t heard about any Democrats running yet.

Haven’t seen anything in the news about any Democrats running for this race. I didn’t see a section on the SoS website listing who’s running. Is there a good site to see who has filed yet?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

California’s 1st Senate District (March 26th)

Candidates
Steven Baird (D) Manager/Broker/Author
Brian Dahle (R) Farmer/Businessman/Assemblyman
Theodore Dzuiba (R) Businessman
Rex Hime (R) Taxpayer Advocate
Kevin Kiley (R) Assemblyman/Small Businessman
Silke Pflueger (D) Safety Advocate/Businesswoman

Their current and former party affiliations

Six candidates, notably missing Beth Gaines (a former assemblywoman for the district now held by Kiley). Speaking of him, Kevin Kiley represents the 6th assembly district, encompassing the Sacramento suburbs (parts of Sacramento, El Dorado, and Placer Counties). Brian Dahle represents most of the northern part of the district: Siskiyou, Shasta, Modoc. Lassen, Plumas, Sierra, Nevada, and parts of Butte and Placer counties.

There’s also Theodore Dzuiba, a businessman who wants to help remake the Republican Party in CA; he also serves on several local boards. Rex Hime is a taxpayer advocate and President and CEO of the California Business Properties Association, an advocacy group.

On the Democratic side, Silke Pflueger is a left leaning political activist in the style of Bernie Sanders; she is also a businesswoman. The other uhh... Democrat? is... interesting. Steven Baird is a former Republican now running as a Democrat. He had been in favor of the state of Jefferson when he ran in 2016. I’m thinking his candidacy is trying to lampoon the Democrats by advocating policies on his website like ”Late term abortions up to and including the 25th year”. I think his candidacy is mostly an attempt to sell his book.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Starting to see signs for the CA 1st Senate special. Lots of Rex Hime signs up in town. My folks got a call from Kevin Kiley last weekend.

Edit: While I was out today, I saw more Rex Hime signs and a lone large banner for Brian Dahle. Surprised I haven’t seen any Kevin Kiley signs in my area given that he’s my assemblyman.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Schedule through 4/2

3/5 - TX HD 145 Runoff (D v D), KY SD 31, RI HD 68
3/12 - GA HD 176 Runoff (R v R), TX HD 125 Runoff, ME HD 124, MS HD 32, 71, 101 , PA HD 114, 190 , TN SD 32
3/19 - IA SD 30, MN HD 11B
3/26 - SC SD 6
3/30 - LA Runoffs - HD 17 (D v D), 18, 62 (R v I)
4/2 - ME HD 52, PA SD 37, and any needed MS Runoffs

CA SD 1 and 33 have their first rounds on March 26. I just got my ballot (SD 1) yesterday. Saw a few Kevin Kiley signs when I went up 80 to Reno over the weekend.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Steven Baird, a recently registered Democrat who was largely running to make fun of the Democratic Party, has dropped out of the special election for California’s First Senate district. Baird’s name is still on the ballot.

My ballot (I’m voting for Silke Pflueger, the only real Democrat in the race) has been marked and is ready to be dropped off. The election is on March 26th, along with another special senate election down in the LA area (33rd Senate district).

I’m expecting Silke Pflueger to take one of the two spots given that there are four Republicans in the race. If Kevin Kiley or Brian Dahle win (unlikely on the 26th, but possible on June 4th), there will be a special election for their assembly seats. If someone gets over 50% on March 26th, there will not be an election on June 4th. California’s special elections for state legislature vacancies follow the Louisiana model, rather than the typical top-two run-off in CA.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Steven Baird, a recently registered Democrat who was largely running to make fun of the Democratic Party, has dropped out of the special election for California’s First Senate district. Baird’s name is still on the ballot.

My ballot (I’m voting for Silke Pflueger, the only real Democrat in the race) has been marked and is ready to be dropped off. The election is on March 26th, along with another special senate election down in the LA area (33rd Senate district).

I’m expecting Silke Pflueger to take one of the two spots given that there are four Republicans in the race. If Kevin Kiley or Brian Dahle win (unlikely on the 26th, but possible on June 4th), there will be a special election for their assembly seats. If someone gets over 50% on March 26th, there will not be an election on June 4th. California’s special elections for state legislature vacancies follow the Louisiana model, rather than the typical top-two run-off in CA.

Thanks for info! Generally - i consider Democratic chances of victory in this district as very low, but still - who is "the best" opponent for Pflueger? Dahle seems to me to be  more rigid conservative. And there is Rex Hime too, IIRC...

I would say that Hime would be one of the better opponents for Pflueger. He isn’t an assemblyman, so he doesn’t have that advantage that Kiley and Dahle have. I see Kiley as not quite as far right as say Dahle or Hime, so he might do better against Pflueger. Not sure about Dziuba tbh.

I would also agree that there’s a very, very low likelihood for Dems to flip this district. I noticed that Kiley’s assembly district (nearly half of the population of the senate district) was still solidly in favor of Kiley. I want to say it was almost 60-40, which seemed like the blue wave didn’t hit that district as hard. Might be misremembering margins though. I do recall that his opponent in 2018 was definitely on the Sanders side of the party, so that might’ve reduced the impact of the wave.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Steven Baird, a recently registered Democrat who was largely running to make fun of the Democratic Party, has dropped out of the special election for California’s First Senate district. Baird’s name is still on the ballot.

My ballot (I’m voting for Silke Pflueger, the only real Democrat in the race) has been marked and is ready to be dropped off. The election is on March 26th, along with another special senate election down in the LA area (33rd Senate district).

I’m expecting Silke Pflueger to take one of the two spots given that there are four Republicans in the race. If Kevin Kiley or Brian Dahle win (unlikely on the 26th, but possible on June 4th), there will be a special election for their assembly seats. If someone gets over 50% on March 26th, there will not be an election on June 4th. California’s special elections for state legislature vacancies follow the Louisiana model, rather than the typical top-two run-off in CA.

Thanks for info! Generally - i consider Democratic chances of victory in this district as very low, but still - who is "the best" opponent for Pflueger? Dahle seems to me to be  more rigid conservative. And there is Rex Hime too, IIRC...

I would say that Hime would be one of the better opponents for Pflueger. He isn’t an assemblyman, so he doesn’t have that advantage that Kiley and Dahle have. I see Kiley as not quite as far right as say Dahle or Hime, so he might do better against Pflueger. Not sure about Dziuba tbh.

I would also agree that there’s a very, very low likelihood for Dems to flip this district. I noticed that Kiley’s assembly district (nearly half of the population of the senate district) was still solidly in favor of Kiley. I want to say it was almost 60-40, which seemed like the blue wave didn’t hit that district as hard. Might be misremembering margins though. I do recall that his opponent in 2018 was definitely on the Sanders side of the party, so that might’ve reduced the impact of the wave.

More thanks for interesting details!

You’re welcome! I had a chance to look up margins. In 2016, Kiley won the 6th Assembly District by 64.5-35.5, while he won by 58-42 in 2018. Didn’t realize that there was that big of a gap between the two elections. Looks like the blue wave was alive and well here. Maybe I was thinking of the 7th House district?

The advantage for D's in CA senate 1 is that the district overall has a lot of #resistance white liberals compared to a minority base.

Is there really? Butte is out of the district, and areas of Jefferson are in. The Jefferson part of California aligns best with republicans, but they tend to dislike both major parties and have a few partisan 3rd party voters up there. The closest to white Libs you have here is the Tahoe area - and thats mostly just Vacation homes with a few permanent liberal residents.

I think that there has been something of a leftward shift in the Sacramento suburbs part of the district (Kiley’s half). Not sure if it’s all white people voting Dem or if it’s from Dem-leaning minorities moving in though. Nevada County also has something of a liberal streak at times. Probably some in South Lake Tahoe like you mentioned.

The destruction of Paradise should have some interesting impacts on redistricting in the area in a couple of years.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Drove around a fair amount today trying to get a board game and I saw a few Rex Hime signs, but definitely more Kevin Kiley signs. I was mostly in Roseville and Rocklin, which are part of Kiley’s assembly district.

Just had a Kiley campaigner knock on my door. Talked to him for a few minutes about Baird being a fake Dem and dropping out as well as how I plan to vote Kiley in case it’s him and another Republican in June. I turned in my ballot today as well.

I’m hoping that someone who’s way better at GIS than I am makes a map of the results, especially Dahle vs Kiley. I’d like to see how it tracks with the assembly district boundaries.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Drove around a fair amount today trying to get a board game and I saw a few Rex Hime signs, but definitely more Kevin Kiley signs. I was mostly in Roseville and Rocklin, which are part of Kiley’s assembly district.

Just had a Kiley campaigner knock on my door. Talked to him for a few minutes about Baird being a fake Dem and dropping out as well as how I plan to vote Kiley in case it’s him and another Republican in June. I turned in my ballot today as well.

I’m hoping that someone who’s way better at GIS than I am makes a map of the results, especially Dahle vs Kiley. I’d like to see how it tracks with the assembly district boundaries.

@VanceUlrich does Sacramento regional GIS, and has a few CA projects. He plans on doing the race, to the best of my knowledge. I'm differing to him here, especially since I am focused on International elections in these next few months.

Thanks for pointing me his way. Just followed him!

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I’ve finally gotten a bit of campaign mail. Some from Kiley and some from Dahle. If I’m not mistaken, the Dahle stuff said that his HQ is in Hilmar, which is far to the south of the senate district and his assembly district. Is that unusual?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Today’s the day in California’s 1st and 33rd Senate Districts! Polls close at 8 PM Pacific (11 Eastern). I plan to be up until ~11 PM Pacific and will try to keep you guys updated on the results.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Well, the closest thing we could've had to a competitive race today ended in a Democratic overperformance. The over- or under- performance in CA-SD33, for example, is a lot less relevant unless it's massive.

No, Clinton lost CA SD-01 by a much closer but still large 54-38

Yeah, just realized that. My mistake.

Hopefully we can get a similar level overperformance in SD-01, then!

What will be interesting to see is how Steve Baird does. He’s on the ballot as a Dem, but he was basically running a campaign mocking the Democratic Party before he dropped out a few weeks ago. Baird was a pro-Jefferson Republican when he ran for the seat in 2016.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Most of this first dump is from Kiley’s assembly district. Some is from Plumas too (that’s part of Dahle’s district and he’s doing well there).

Edit: So far, Pflueger is far surpassing Baird, which is nice to see.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Breakdown:

Brian Dahle is the incumbent for California's 1st Assembly (Not Senate) District. That district covers the following counties:

Modoc, Lassen, Siskiyou, Shasta, Plumas, Nevada, Sierra, and part of Placer (mainly the town of Colfax and northern Lake Tahoe communities). Portions of Butte County are also in the 1st Assembly District, but are not in the 1st Senate District.

Kevin Kiley is the incumbent for California's 6th Assembly District.

That district contains parts of Placer (the more populous areas, such as Lincoln, Granite Bay, and Rocklin), the far western parts of El Dorado County (El Dorado Hills and Cameron Park), and parts of Sacramento County (Fair Oaks, Orangevale, and Folsom). Roseville, part of Placer County, is also in Kiley's assembly district, but is not part of the 1st Senate District.

Both Kiley and Dahle are Republicans and are the two leading Republicans.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

El Dorado is showing strong for Kiley (35%) and Pflueger (28%). Dahle is at 19% here. Not sure how many are reporting from here.

Placer claims about 50% reporting. 41-26-16 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Plumas claims 100% reporting. 14-25-45 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Sierra is also 100% reporting. 14-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Siskiyou doesn't say their reporting status. 11-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.



As I guessed earlier, Dahle is doing well in his district and Kiley seems to be doing well in his.

198k ballots cast in Dahle's district compared to 226k for Kiley's district. Kiley only beat Dahle by about 6,000 votes if you look at just their numbers. This could be close, given that Roseville is not in this senate district.

A note on % reporting: Many people in California vote by mail. CA state law allows ballots postmarked by today that arrive by Friday to be counted. Also, Sacramento County is nearly entirely mail-in. I believe that Alpine and Sierra are also mostly, if not all, mail-ins.

Edit: While typing that, more votes came out. I'd disregard most of the post before "As I guessed..."

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Alpine has less than 100 votes in (doubt they'll break 300 or so). Pflueger leads there, as is expected for Alpine. Overall, it's 8-44-27% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

El Dorado is still 35-28-19 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. No update on reporting either.

Lassen: no votes yet.

Modoc: 9-10-70 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Not shocking.

Nevada: 10-40-35 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Pflueger is from Truckee, located in Nevada County.

Placer: 41-26-16 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Kiley's home county. It's larger than a fair number of the counties in Dahle's district. I'm not fast enough to copy/format the SoS numbers into a post, so they're just percentages.

Plumas claims 100% reporting. 14-25-45 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. No change?

Sacramento claims nearly 100% reporting, but earlier caveats about Sac County are still in play. The portions of Sac County in this senate district are the more conservative (though somewhat trending Dem) parts of the county. 45-26-10 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

Shasta: 16-14-53 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle

Sierra: 14-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. I don't think this one changed.

Siskiyou doesn't say their reporting status. 11-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Even in what is probably one of the more liberal parts of the district, I don't think that I saw any signs for Pflueger. Take that for what its worth, but I did see a fair number of Kiley and Hime signs (most Sacramento and Placer Counties). I don't think I got any mailers from Pflueger either.