State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #75 on: April 10, 2018, 09:29:03 PM »
http://www.storycountyiowa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/8228

Freeze wins Story 1440-1148-4
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #76 on: April 10, 2018, 09:31:29 PM »
Let's hope that Freese lives in Grundy and owns a small business in Butler...
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #77 on: April 10, 2018, 09:35:01 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 10, 2018, 09:31:29 PM
Let's hope that Freese lives in Grundy and owns a small business in Butler...

She does live in Grundy but it's Dutch and votes 62-38
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #78 on: April 10, 2018, 09:35:08 PM »
ANNETTE SWEENEY 141 95 158 97 161 199 191 226 1268 62.1%
TRACY FREESE 83 42 48 28 171 109 156 137 774 37.9%
Write-ins 0 0.0%
0 0.0%
TOTAL VOTES CAST 224 137 206 125 332 308 347 363 2042 100.0%


Sweeney wins big in Grundy. It's over.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #79 on: April 10, 2018, 09:35:15 PM »
Freese is screwed. Sweeney represented both Butler and Grundy counties in her state house seat. I think we'll see a final margin of 57-43 for the Republican.
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YE
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« Reply #80 on: April 10, 2018, 09:37:19 PM »
mfw when expectations are so high you are almost underwhelmed when you lose a Romney/Trump midwest seat by double figures.
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #81 on: April 10, 2018, 09:37:27 PM »
Totals so far:
 
Sweeney 4211 (56%)
Freese 3334 (44%)
Write-In 5 (0%)
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #82 on: April 10, 2018, 09:37:39 PM »
Story county really, really, really had awful turnout night. Way underrepresented in the final totals.
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💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
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« Reply #83 on: April 10, 2018, 09:41:32 PM »
Does this district include Ames? Even if the district has a safe R history it's sad to see a D candidate get flushed in a district with a major university in it.
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #84 on: April 10, 2018, 09:41:39 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on April 10, 2018, 09:37:39 PM
Story county really, really, really had awful turnout night. Way underrepresented in the final totals.

Nah, 1 moderate liberal country is always less than 3 very conservative counties.
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #85 on: April 10, 2018, 09:42:27 PM »
Quote from: peenie_weenie on April 10, 2018, 09:41:32 PM
Does this district include Ames? Even if the district has a safe R history it's sad to see a D candidate get flushed in a district with a major university in it.

No, it doesn't.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #86 on: April 10, 2018, 09:43:02 PM »
Quote from: peenie_weenie on April 10, 2018, 09:41:32 PM
Does this district include Ames? Even if the district has a safe R history it's sad to see a D candidate get flushed in a district with a major university in it.

No, it covers the South and East part of the county, but not Ames. 

Here's a link to a district map

http://www.storycountyiowa.gov/DocumentCenter/View/5071
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #87 on: April 10, 2018, 09:44:03 PM »
The Story portion of the district voted for Trump by 14 and Romney by 2, so a 56-44 win there is a substantial improvement.
https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/983896058009878529
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #88 on: April 10, 2018, 09:54:19 PM »
Okay, Butler County, how bad is it? 60% R? 70% R? 80% R?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #89 on: April 10, 2018, 09:56:32 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on April 10, 2018, 09:54:19 PM
Okay, Butler County, how bad is it? 60% R? 70% R? 80% R?

The SD-25 portion went 66-29 while the county as a whole went 66-29 for Trump. But Obama only lost here in 2012 54-44, so Freese conceivably could stem the bleeding if she matched his margin. Seems ancestrally more democratic.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #90 on: April 10, 2018, 10:05:26 PM »
A big chunk of Butler is in another district, I believe, so the vote is overwhelmingly in.  Looks like around a 12 point swing to the Dem from 2016-Pres.  I was hoping for a bit better, but when you factor in the strength of the Republican candidate, it's still a solid result and in line with what we've been seeing.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #91 on: April 10, 2018, 10:06:14 PM »
So we're looking at about a 14-point shift to the Democrats?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #92 on: April 10, 2018, 10:06:17 PM »
Quote from: YE on April 10, 2018, 09:37:19 PM
mfw when expectations are so high you are almost underwhelmed when you lose a Romney/Trump midwest seat by double figures.

Democrats have been over-performing very consistently in special elections of all sorts, and a number of high-profile specials has moved the bar to the point where not winning seats that they wouldn't ordinarily be expected to win even in a wave* somehow becomes disappointing and used as "proof" by Republicans (or others who think Democrats will perform poorly in Nov) that their success is petering out. This has become a regular thing now both by Republicans in general and occasionally by some users here.

I'd love for my party to win them all, but I don't expect it.


* not sure how well downballot Democrats have performed in this seat over the past 10 years
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #93 on: April 10, 2018, 10:06:33 PM »
All of Butler county in: Freese loses it 57.5 - 42.5 with the Republican netting about 140 votes.

https://www.butlercoiowa.org/images/SPECIAL_ELECTION_RESULTS_WILL_BE_POSTED_AS_SOON_AS_THEY_BECOME_AVAILABLE.pdf
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #94 on: April 10, 2018, 10:11:17 PM »
Final Totals:

Sweeney (R) 4742 (56%)
Freese (D) 3726 (44%)
Write-In 5 (0%)

A disappointment, but it could be far worse.

That wraps up tonight. The next elections are on the 24th.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #95 on: April 10, 2018, 10:18:09 PM »
The GOP is going to win the Iowa seat. Great night.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #96 on: April 10, 2018, 10:38:19 PM »
This is fun:
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KingSweden
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« Reply #97 on: April 10, 2018, 10:38:33 PM »
Decent swing in tough territory
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #98 on: April 10, 2018, 10:40:08 PM »
Quote from: krazen1211 on April 10, 2018, 10:18:09 PM
The GOP is going to win the Iowa seat. Great night.



We all called this an hour ago, and you are just calling it now.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #99 on: April 10, 2018, 10:44:01 PM »
A 14-point shift isn't bad at all
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