State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Sestak]

Miles, glad you "reappeared" here. Big thanks for your maps! It became my habit to look regularily at Decision Desk Twitter. One question: you have excellent knowledge of Southern politics. We discussed Mississippi in details recently. But what about Louisiana legislative elections? Term limits will cause very big turnover there, as lot of people, elected in 2007 (first time, when term limits were applied) are term-limited himself. Especially problematic, IMHO, is situation with few remaining white Democrats. If i am not mistaken - only 3 of them (Brown, Carter and White) may run for reelection, and chances of electing new ones in their seats, are,  usually, not good (many retiring white legislators come from 65-85% Trump districts). Your expertise would be very useful here...

It's been a while my friend! I've still been lurking around and uploading old races to the database here, but I'll likely post a bit more as Louisiana gets closer. Lots of interesting stuff happening in the legislature.

Miles has been contracted to make maps for Cook Political and Sabato before. Until anyone of us reaches that level, we do not have the right to decide what he makes and what he doesn't - unless he asks for input.

Thanks! It was great to work with them. Funny thing is they asked me for a lot of Presidential maps to help handicap downballot races. But now, I'm being told Presidential numbers are irrelevant

You really don't have any idea of the amount and quality of the work Miles has consistently created and published, do you?

I'm surprised Miles even acknowledged the existence of this insignificant right-wing troll.
He must have had a slow day at the office.

Yeah, sometimes you just have to go for it on these slow days! The vast majority of you guys are awesome and I'm happy to put out the content, but always inevitably a few who just want to complain.

There was an special legislative election in Alabama last year. My map compared it to the 2017 Senate result. Jones' performance was/is obviously about the ceiling for Democrats there, so of course they underperformed him. Had a guy saying I should have compared to 2016 President instead. Can't win sometimes!

In any case, looking forward to mapping more of these special elections this year!

Keep doing what you do, man. Your maps are great!

[smoltchanov]

They really aren't. 2017 special election swings vs. 2016 was one of signs 2018 was going to be a big year for Democrats. Just like special election swings vs. 2008 and vs. 2012 were signs that 2010 and 2014 were going to be big years.

Not sure about the correlation between special election performance and Presidential years though, but the point is that it's not really that big a difference. Presidential performance is basically a baseline for the partisanship of the seat, especially in the past few cycles where there's been a very healthy correlation between Presidential margin and state legislative results.

So, we have special state house election in 2019. We're comparing it with 2016 presidential election in the same seat, but not with the same actual election for on a state leg level from the same day.. I don't know how predictive swings are but it looks to me that comparison no2 is better suited.

My only question to a guy was why map the first comparison and even Obama comparison not the state leg vs state leg comparison and that's it. People going berzerk for some reason telling me where and what he did, I couldn't care less to be honest if he's the messiah come again, it was a legitimate question to raise

May be it was legitimate, but still - it's useful to have some achievements in field of discussion, when you ask. And - really ASK, not MEET JUDGEMENT. It adds a sort of "respect" to person in question... But generally - the question "why you did it this way , not that way?" is, usually,  stupid: it's simply a creator's right to do something the way he consideres best. If you want to have it different way - no one prevents you from making it the way you like.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Steven Baird, a recently registered Democrat who was largely running to make fun of the Democratic Party, has dropped out of the special election for California’s First Senate district. Baird’s name is still on the ballot.

My ballot (I’m voting for Silke Pflueger, the only real Democrat in the race) has been marked and is ready to be dropped off. The election is on March 26th, along with another special senate election down in the LA area (33rd Senate district).

I’m expecting Silke Pflueger to take one of the two spots given that there are four Republicans in the race. If Kevin Kiley or Brian Dahle win (unlikely on the 26th, but possible on June 4th), there will be a special election for their assembly seats. If someone gets over 50% on March 26th, there will not be an election on June 4th. California’s special elections for state legislature vacancies follow the Louisiana model, rather than the typical top-two run-off in CA.

[smoltchanov]

Steven Baird, a recently registered Democrat who was largely running to make fun of the Democratic Party, has dropped out of the special election for California’s First Senate district. Baird’s name is still on the ballot.

My ballot (I’m voting for Silke Pflueger, the only real Democrat in the race) has been marked and is ready to be dropped off. The election is on March 26th, along with another special senate election down in the LA area (33rd Senate district).

I’m expecting Silke Pflueger to take one of the two spots given that there are four Republicans in the race. If Kevin Kiley or Brian Dahle win (unlikely on the 26th, but possible on June 4th), there will be a special election for their assembly seats. If someone gets over 50% on March 26th, there will not be an election on June 4th. California’s special elections for state legislature vacancies follow the Louisiana model, rather than the typical top-two run-off in CA.

Thanks for info! Generally - i consider Democratic chances of victory in this district as very low, but still - who is "the best" opponent for Pflueger? Dahle seems to me to be  more rigid conservative. And there is Rex Hime too, IIRC...

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Steven Baird, a recently registered Democrat who was largely running to make fun of the Democratic Party, has dropped out of the special election for California’s First Senate district. Baird’s name is still on the ballot.

My ballot (I’m voting for Silke Pflueger, the only real Democrat in the race) has been marked and is ready to be dropped off. The election is on March 26th, along with another special senate election down in the LA area (33rd Senate district).

I’m expecting Silke Pflueger to take one of the two spots given that there are four Republicans in the race. If Kevin Kiley or Brian Dahle win (unlikely on the 26th, but possible on June 4th), there will be a special election for their assembly seats. If someone gets over 50% on March 26th, there will not be an election on June 4th. California’s special elections for state legislature vacancies follow the Louisiana model, rather than the typical top-two run-off in CA.

Thanks for info! Generally - i consider Democratic chances of victory in this district as very low, but still - who is "the best" opponent for Pflueger? Dahle seems to me to be  more rigid conservative. And there is Rex Hime too, IIRC...

I would say that Hime would be one of the better opponents for Pflueger. He isn’t an assemblyman, so he doesn’t have that advantage that Kiley and Dahle have. I see Kiley as not quite as far right as say Dahle or Hime, so he might do better against Pflueger. Not sure about Dziuba tbh.

I would also agree that there’s a very, very low likelihood for Dems to flip this district. I noticed that Kiley’s assembly district (nearly half of the population of the senate district) was still solidly in favor of Kiley. I want to say it was almost 60-40, which seemed like the blue wave didn’t hit that district as hard. Might be misremembering margins though. I do recall that his opponent in 2018 was definitely on the Sanders side of the party, so that might’ve reduced the impact of the wave.

[lfromnj]

The advantage for D's in CA senate 1 is that the district overall has a lot of #resistance white liberals compared to a minority base.

[smoltchanov]

Steven Baird, a recently registered Democrat who was largely running to make fun of the Democratic Party, has dropped out of the special election for California’s First Senate district. Baird’s name is still on the ballot.

My ballot (I’m voting for Silke Pflueger, the only real Democrat in the race) has been marked and is ready to be dropped off. The election is on March 26th, along with another special senate election down in the LA area (33rd Senate district).

I’m expecting Silke Pflueger to take one of the two spots given that there are four Republicans in the race. If Kevin Kiley or Brian Dahle win (unlikely on the 26th, but possible on June 4th), there will be a special election for their assembly seats. If someone gets over 50% on March 26th, there will not be an election on June 4th. California’s special elections for state legislature vacancies follow the Louisiana model, rather than the typical top-two run-off in CA.

Thanks for info! Generally - i consider Democratic chances of victory in this district as very low, but still - who is "the best" opponent for Pflueger? Dahle seems to me to be  more rigid conservative. And there is Rex Hime too, IIRC...

I would say that Hime would be one of the better opponents for Pflueger. He isn’t an assemblyman, so he doesn’t have that advantage that Kiley and Dahle have. I see Kiley as not quite as far right as say Dahle or Hime, so he might do better against Pflueger. Not sure about Dziuba tbh.

I would also agree that there’s a very, very low likelihood for Dems to flip this district. I noticed that Kiley’s assembly district (nearly half of the population of the senate district) was still solidly in favor of Kiley. I want to say it was almost 60-40, which seemed like the blue wave didn’t hit that district as hard. Might be misremembering margins though. I do recall that his opponent in 2018 was definitely on the Sanders side of the party, so that might’ve reduced the impact of the wave.

More thanks for interesting details!

[Oryxslayer]

The advantage for D's in CA senate 1 is that the district overall has a lot of #resistance white liberals compared to a minority base.

Is there really? Butte is out of the district, and areas of Jefferson are in. The Jefferson part of California aligns best with republicans, but they tend to dislike both major parties and have a few partisan 3rd party voters up there. The closest to white Libs you have here is the Tahoe area - and thats mostly just Vacation homes with a few permanent liberal residents.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Steven Baird, a recently registered Democrat who was largely running to make fun of the Democratic Party, has dropped out of the special election for California’s First Senate district. Baird’s name is still on the ballot.

My ballot (I’m voting for Silke Pflueger, the only real Democrat in the race) has been marked and is ready to be dropped off. The election is on March 26th, along with another special senate election down in the LA area (33rd Senate district).

I’m expecting Silke Pflueger to take one of the two spots given that there are four Republicans in the race. If Kevin Kiley or Brian Dahle win (unlikely on the 26th, but possible on June 4th), there will be a special election for their assembly seats. If someone gets over 50% on March 26th, there will not be an election on June 4th. California’s special elections for state legislature vacancies follow the Louisiana model, rather than the typical top-two run-off in CA.

Thanks for info! Generally - i consider Democratic chances of victory in this district as very low, but still - who is "the best" opponent for Pflueger? Dahle seems to me to be  more rigid conservative. And there is Rex Hime too, IIRC...

I would say that Hime would be one of the better opponents for Pflueger. He isn’t an assemblyman, so he doesn’t have that advantage that Kiley and Dahle have. I see Kiley as not quite as far right as say Dahle or Hime, so he might do better against Pflueger. Not sure about Dziuba tbh.

I would also agree that there’s a very, very low likelihood for Dems to flip this district. I noticed that Kiley’s assembly district (nearly half of the population of the senate district) was still solidly in favor of Kiley. I want to say it was almost 60-40, which seemed like the blue wave didn’t hit that district as hard. Might be misremembering margins though. I do recall that his opponent in 2018 was definitely on the Sanders side of the party, so that might’ve reduced the impact of the wave.

More thanks for interesting details!

You’re welcome! I had a chance to look up margins. In 2016, Kiley won the 6th Assembly District by 64.5-35.5, while he won by 58-42 in 2018. Didn’t realize that there was that big of a gap between the two elections. Looks like the blue wave was alive and well here. Maybe I was thinking of the 7th House district?

The advantage for D's in CA senate 1 is that the district overall has a lot of #resistance white liberals compared to a minority base.

Is there really? Butte is out of the district, and areas of Jefferson are in. The Jefferson part of California aligns best with republicans, but they tend to dislike both major parties and have a few partisan 3rd party voters up there. The closest to white Libs you have here is the Tahoe area - and thats mostly just Vacation homes with a few permanent liberal residents.

I think that there has been something of a leftward shift in the Sacramento suburbs part of the district (Kiley’s half). Not sure if it’s all white people voting Dem or if it’s from Dem-leaning minorities moving in though. Nevada County also has something of a liberal streak at times. Probably some in South Lake Tahoe like you mentioned.

The destruction of Paradise should have some interesting impacts on redistricting in the area in a couple of years.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Drove around a fair amount today trying to get a board game and I saw a few Rex Hime signs, but definitely more Kevin Kiley signs. I was mostly in Roseville and Rocklin, which are part of Kiley’s assembly district.

Just had a Kiley campaigner knock on my door. Talked to him for a few minutes about Baird being a fake Dem and dropping out as well as how I plan to vote Kiley in case it’s him and another Republican in June. I turned in my ballot today as well.

I’m hoping that someone who’s way better at GIS than I am makes a map of the results, especially Dahle vs Kiley. I’d like to see how it tracks with the assembly district boundaries.

[Oryxslayer]

Drove around a fair amount today trying to get a board game and I saw a few Rex Hime signs, but definitely more Kevin Kiley signs. I was mostly in Roseville and Rocklin, which are part of Kiley’s assembly district.

Just had a Kiley campaigner knock on my door. Talked to him for a few minutes about Baird being a fake Dem and dropping out as well as how I plan to vote Kiley in case it’s him and another Republican in June. I turned in my ballot today as well.

I’m hoping that someone who’s way better at GIS than I am makes a map of the results, especially Dahle vs Kiley. I’d like to see how it tracks with the assembly district boundaries.

@VanceUlrich does Sacramento regional GIS, and has a few CA projects. He plans on doing the race, to the best of my knowledge. I'm differing to him here, especially since I am focused on International elections in these next few months.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Drove around a fair amount today trying to get a board game and I saw a few Rex Hime signs, but definitely more Kevin Kiley signs. I was mostly in Roseville and Rocklin, which are part of Kiley’s assembly district.

Just had a Kiley campaigner knock on my door. Talked to him for a few minutes about Baird being a fake Dem and dropping out as well as how I plan to vote Kiley in case it’s him and another Republican in June. I turned in my ballot today as well.

I’m hoping that someone who’s way better at GIS than I am makes a map of the results, especially Dahle vs Kiley. I’d like to see how it tracks with the assembly district boundaries.

@VanceUlrich does Sacramento regional GIS, and has a few CA projects. He plans on doing the race, to the best of my knowledge. I'm differing to him here, especially since I am focused on International elections in these next few months.

Thanks for pointing me his way. Just followed him!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully we can hold on in Iowa SD 30.

[ON Progressive]

Hopefully we can hold on in Iowa SD 30.

We should be the favourites. Some of our presidential campaigns have helped here, and it's a Hillary/Hubbell seat. I'm not too secure since the margins weren't overly big (Hillary +2/Hubbell +8)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully we can hold on in Iowa SD 30.

We should be the favourites. Some of our presidential campaigns have helped here, and it's a Hillary/Hubbell seat. I'm not too secure since the margins weren't overly big (Hillary +2/Hubbell +8)

Oh snap, I did not know that, feeling a lot better now, thanks. I just heard a lot of people chatting about how this will be a tough fight, and saw this labeled as a “HUGE” hold opportunity on ready2vote.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Where the hell is wulfric? Results are already pouring in and nearly done for Minnesota.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/bhcauditor/status/1108197114071396354

Looks like the Democrat has it in a landslide.

[bluesolid]

According to @electionwatchus, Democrats hold Iowa Senate District 30 and Republicans hold Minnesota House District 11B.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/bhcauditor/status/1108198461608849408

Dem leads 57-42. Not bad!

[Oryxslayer]

21/25 Precincts in Iowa

7292 Giddens (Dem) 57.06%
5344 Rogers (Rep) 41.82%
137 Perryman (Lib) 1.07%

Edit: Ninja'ed

[ON Progressive]

Giddens might actually win the election day vote, which is quite rare in Iowa.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Happy about Iowa.

[Zaybay]

Pretty great result tonight, and a good swing as well.

[junior chįmp]

Lol

https://mobile.twitter.com/kaufmannGOP/status/1108203727297675264

[Badger]

Based off Lawrence county, looks like another devastating loss for Democrats.

You're absolutely insane if you think narrowly losing a district that was 80-17 Trump in 2016 is a devastating loss for Democrats.

Trump percentages are not everything. This districts had extremely strong Democratic tradition, electing Democrats ONLY for state Senate for almost 50 years before now. Essentially the same - with state House and many local offices. That's why this loss is still a sensitive blow for local Democrats at least. For me - it's neither an achievement, nor source of panic. It's only a sign, that Democratic bleeding in rural areas (especially - in Appalachia) - continues. Let's wait until early April, and state Senate election in suburban Pennsylvania. AFTER that - first preliminary conclusions can be made..

On behalf of all Democrats anywhere, I don’t care about us losing a Trump 80% district. That bled out several years ago.

And still elected Democrats. Until now....

Well, essentially Democrats conduct "ignore rural areas, because they (people, living there) are reactionary and racist". And count on simple fact, that 51% (people, living in suburbs) is substantially more, then 17% (people, living in rural areas). Yes, it's so. The question is - wheter a process of suburbs moving to Democrats, which became especially clear with Trump election, is a long term, or it's caused in large part by Trump's personality? Well to do subirbs never liked too much high taxes on people like them, which are quite possible with continuing "progressivization" of Democratic party...

P.S. (An example) Be prepared to rather big losses in Lousiana's state legislative elections this year with your approach. Democrats still hold substalntial number of heavily Trump districts (at least 1 in state Senate and 3 in state House are above 70% Trump, with one being 88% Trump, in addition to 65+% Trump districts...). While nimber of Republican held district NOT supporting (or barely supporting) Trump is minimal.....

My goodness! These results strong indicate Trump is favored to win Kentucky next year! Democrats are DOOOOOOOMMMMMED!